Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 And just so people are wondering, the southern track would allow to the low to try and wrap back in closer which obviously brings precip further SW. This is pretty much a classic polar low. It even had signs of warm seclusion. Yep i mentioned that, akin to a polar low, Antarctica stuff. But hey me being Major Tom what do I know. Congrats Cweat, Scooter, Hullamania, Peter in Gloucester, Eric, Jeffafa , Tamarack, Maine Photog, Eastport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Bernie Rayno says he likes the GFS "GFS appears to be locked in, although I can see subtle changes next couple of days. here are my thoughts". http://ow.ly/IWmZl I am hoping this thing comes a little further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I was more thinking that if the ULL sort of stayed as modeled, the GFS would maybe look like the euro. I thought the euro made sense given the look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I was more thinking that if the ULL sort of stayed as modeled, the GFS would maybe look like the euro. I thought the euro made sense given the look. Its not the GFS being dumb its the 4d on the Euro understanding physical processes to precipitation placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Definitely a bit wetter though through hour 69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GFS looks similar to the 6z run so far to me through hour 60, maybe a hair north of it. Actually looks the opposite to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 That's a nice look on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GFS is stronger with the surface low over BUF at hour 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Didn't see a big change. Pretty steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The GFS is tickling the belly of the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 A bit more spread out with the precip it seemed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 looks a tick better for eastern areas, throws more qpf back west even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Didn't see a big change. Pretty steady. Seems like a slight trend towards the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Didn't see a big change. Pretty steady. Are you expecting a BIG change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Increased qpf here over 1.0"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 At hour 60 it looked about 20 miles north or so to me, but it definitely recovered after that. Best GFS run yet for the region it appears. 60h 12z GFS compared to 66h 06z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I thought at hr 60, the ULL was getting ready to kick out and dig a bit more as compared to 6z. Also, not sure of what to make of that s/w trough over the Rockies. It looks like heights were higher which would allow better digging here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 60h 12z GFS compared to 66h 06z GFS: Thanks, Will. As they say, a picture is worth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 60h 12z GFS compared to 66h 06z GFS: Thats bizzare, I'm not seeing the same images on instantweathermaps. You're right, that's clearly south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Definitely a better step in the right direction IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Heh, you know .. .I was just reading NCEP mid/extended range discussion and thinking ... this guy is either incredibly smart or incredibly stupid: ...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...DAYS 3-4---COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTHEAST...GREAT LAKES AND APPRECIABLE TEMPERATURE FALLS EAST OF 100W LONGITUDE FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE LAKES AND APPALACHIANS IN A BROAD FETCH OF NORTHWEST FLOW. ....where apparently I have no idea that a -3 or 4SD mid level vortex is slated to pass just under LI during said time frame... ummmDAYS 4-6---DIGGING ENERGY INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS EJECTSEAST-NORTHEASTWARD---AND MIGRATES FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...THEN EXITS THE NORTHEAST COAST. ITS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A RETURN LOW-LEVEL FLOW ORIGINATING IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING A SERIES OF OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENTS ATOP THE MODIFIED-ARCTIC BOUNDARY IN PLACE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS AND WITHIN THE I-40/I-70 FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FOUR-CORNERS SHORTWAVE...SHOULD GENERATE A BROAD AREA OF UPSLOPE SNOWS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND WESTWARD TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Definitely a better step in the right direction IMHO. Crushed, snowmobile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Wow that is a pretty sizable bump south..And as that happens..look at increase of qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 That GIF shows you the Rockies s/w trough too. Notice 12z GFS had higher heights there which is what we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Thats bizzare, I'm not seeing the same images on instantweathermaps. You're right, that's clearly south. At any rate, not a huge change, but we'll take them if they are in the right direction. Still kind of model noise at this point, but as we get closer, smaller changes become more meaningful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spoons56 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 60h 12z GFS compared to 66h 06z GFS: I like what I'm seeing. Tic south, better/quicker rounding, more moisture being pulled back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Ughhh headache inducing: "it's north" "it's south" "it's better" "it's the same" It's called join another hobby and ignore it. I was telling a met buddy the other day: if we are going to transition from such a wildly entertaining and proficient winter producing era into a mind game, I'd prefer it run out to spring with certain rapidity. It's not really missing out that bothers, but wasting of one's time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Definitely a better step in the right direction IMHO. Ok In the right direction for who? The whole region? ESNE WSNE CNE NNE? My sense is it might be better a bit for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Definitely a better step in the right direction IMHO. All ya need to know from the GFS. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Only through 78 and still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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