mahk_webstah Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Who cares about HPC. Well you know I hump them like Pavlov's dog. Kocin not on the desk for that report, but I take them seriously - you don't? They are one of the indicators I look at before a system. I'm looking even closer than usual as I consider pulling the trigger on a trip home Sat afternoon. Im going ask for some input in the banter thread. But it was a day 2 map with fairly widespread 4+, small moderate 8+ and no 12+. The map clearly favored ESNE and not ME! I don't mean me, I mean ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 James, is that you? I'd cut that by 60% 5-10 until I see if euro 12z today trends more ENE with best stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Well you know I hump them like Pavlov's dog. Kocin not on the desk for that report, but I take them seriously - you don't? They are one of the indicators I look at before a system. I'm looking even closer than usual as I consider pulling the trigger on a trip home Sat afternoon. Im going ask for some input in the banter thread. But it was a day 2 map with fairly widespread 4+, small moderate 8+ and no 12+. The map clearly favored ESNE and not ME! I don't mean me, I mean ME No, my forecasts or opinions aren't really swayed by NWS or HPC. I actually would rather interact by the mets in here like OceantSt, Ryan, Will etc....good mets who know the area and can offer the insight of a different pair of eyes. People say this field is competitive and it is, but I don't look at it as who is better than who....I value different opinions and I think it collectively adds to a better forecast. Egos will kill you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 James, is that you? No....the most conervative model is giving like .7" qpf fo rmy area....that is about 1' there...and it get higher up towards Newburyport. Just sit and wait before you take a shot. You had a smart answer when I said to wait for 2013 comeback, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Nam has the mid level lows over nyc. Interesting to see which guidance will be right on its placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 No....the most conervative model is giving like .7" qpf fo rmy area....that is about 1' there...and it get higher up towards Newburyport. That the same logic upton may have used when going 24-36 in NYC blizzard , seemingly not weighting the fact the sharp cut off modeled to their SW in a anomalous set up could easily see them cut amount by 70% if things trended 50 miles East, which this one has same potential, and upton had 4 euro cycles burying them (but also with sharp cut off just SW) Thou i know you aren't betting your life on 1-2'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Nam has the mid level lows over nyc. Interesting to see which guidance will be right on its placement. And stretched to hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Late night at the vet and early day at work...too much for this senior... Still liking 6-12 for the eastern half of sne/nh/me. hope everything is ok with the pup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Congrats Eastport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Wish the inflow was quicker/better, it's so close to spinning up a bomb for sne, instead Maine is crushed Obv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 That the same logic upton may have used when going 24-36 in NYC blizzard , seemingly not weighting the fact the sharp cut off modeled to their SW in a anomalous set up could easily see them cut amount by 70% if things trended 50 miles East, which this one has same potential. Thou i know you aren't betting your life on 1-2'. I telling you what I think will happen. I'm not forecasting for the largest megalopolis in the world. If I were at BOX, I'd be going 8-14" right now. But I think 1-2' over ne MA, from sw to ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I hope youre wrong ginxy. Dont want another JP at this point I wish my town was good at snow removal. I miss living in new hampshire. 12z and 0z gonna be huge runs for this storm. I can really see it going either way. I call bullsh*t on that statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 And stretched to hell Yea based off nam, it should of exploded over nyc but it gets stretched and doesn't do so until it gets into the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 No....the most conervative model is giving like .7" qpf fo rmy area....that is about 1' there...and it get higher up towards Newburyport. Just sit and wait before you take a shot. You had a smart answer when I said to wait for 2013 comeback, too. It was a joke. 2' would require a bit more work. 12" would not require much and is a good look for at least Essex county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Another move south by the nam. Good trend to start 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I thought the nam was a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Wish the inflow was quicker/better, it's so close to spinning up a bomb for sne, instead Maine is crushed Obv. I still don't think the NAM has its teeth into anything at this range, but the takeaway here is actually that we're starting to see some consistency with the overall output... most of what I'm seeing from 00z into this run looks similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Nam looks a bit south... tic tic tic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 It was a joke. 2' would require a bit more work. 12" would not require much and is a good look for at least Essex county. I know. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I thought the nam was a bit better. That is all, next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 I thought the nam was a bit better. Agreed. H5 south ...all I care to glean from it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MBRI Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 No, my forecasts or opinions aren't really swayed by NWS or HPC. I actually would rather interact by the mets in here like OceantSt, Ryan, Will etc....good mets who know the area and can offer the insight of a different pair of eyes. People say this field is competitive and it is, but I don't look at it as who is better than who....I value different opinions and I think it collectively adds to a better forecast. Egos will kill you. Gosh I hope you didn't hear me as favoring HPC over the crew here! I don't take anything seriously unless the mets in the NE thread do. HPC is just a thing I look at. I think when it comes to these storms we have the mets in the world and I am one lucky dude to be allowed to tune in. Did I see a Euro snow map with 18+ over much of ESNE, ECNE and ENNE? Like amounts approaching 3 feet on a 96 hour map? It was on Joe Cioffies fb page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Agreed. H5 south ...all I care to glean from it And just so people are wondering, the southern track would allow to the low to try and wrap back in closer which obviously brings precip further SW. This is pretty much a classic polar low. It even had signs of warm seclusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This looks comical to me, to be honest. I just don't see enough support for a map like that at this stage. But they're the paid mets in a populated market full of scrutiny, and I'm just a mild mannered reporter by day and gigolo by night. So what do I know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Matches Rays thoughts well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Very reasonable. That is about what I'd issue at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 This looks comical to me, to be honest. I just don't see enough support for a map like that at this stage. But they're the paid mets in a populated market full of scrutiny, and I'm just a mild mannered reporter by day and gigolo by night. So what do I know? Disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I honestly have no idea what I need in order to receive more snowfall...does a tick south help here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Lack of excellent downstream ridging. Normally you have higher heights ahead of a shortwave and the resistance of those heights causes the flow to "curl" up to the north and then northwest as the very strong shortwave exerts its presence. Without it, you tend to have the flow curl more north and northeast. We want to see those height lines rip back NW north of the H5 low which is what gives us the good inflow of moisture. The euro actually looked pretty decent on this aspect which is probably why I didn't meh the QPF output as much as others. It tilted the PVA a little differently which is a really tedious nuance that can't really be forecasted at 78-84 hours. We will see how today does but the lack of downstream ridging is something this system has been fighting from the start. I very much agree in principle ... but this situation is unique. Sorry if I don't have the conversational gist and am jumping in the middle. That trough is so absurdly deep and mechanically powerful together, that relative to the surrounding medium it kind of 'defaults' toward the set up ur saying. As we know ... everything in the atmosphere happening in time is purely a function of conserving mass and restoring therein; so such a deep well moving through will require the same restoring as anything more modestly deep that happens to have better ridge structure in the rampart. That's a -4 or whatever SD moving through a neutral environment ... The whole of the surrounding geopotential medium is thus more than a virtual ridge purely for slope/gradient. I am just stunned at the 00z Euro's delta(p) in that 24 hours between 72 and 96. I am wondering if actual "rate" of intensity is stored in archives; would be interesting to compare against other notable rapid deepeners in the past. Course ...the new guidance is coming out this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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