Super Snow Sunday 2/15-Party Like it's 1717

[HoarfrostHubb]

No...golf...'til August

[HoarfrostHubb]

Except not one model shows warning level snows here.

GFS looks like it extends the warning stuff into Tolland (as per Trop Tidbits weenie map)

 

 

Edit...although that includes tonight's C-1"

[dryslot]

No...golf...'til August

 

This keeps up we will start challenging seasonal all time records

[PWMan]

GYX digs deep. Nanavut nuke?

 

 

 

SUNDAY WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN NUNAVUT WILL BE DIVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL REACH SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
BEGINNING TO SPREAD CLOUDS OVER OUR REGION. THE LOW THEN RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES IN THE GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SNOW... HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE COASTAL REGIONS...

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Throwing in the BOX AFD for posterity:

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

- POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS E/SE-COASTAL MA
- WIND HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY
- INITIAL COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS FOR N-FACING SHORELINES SUNDAY

AS FEARED. ENSEMBLE-WEIGHTED CLOSED LOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NE-CONUS
INVOKING A STRONG SURFACE REFLECTION OFFSHORE OF S NEW ENGLAND IN
AREAS OF BETTER BAROCLINICITY. KEEP IN MIND HERE THAT ATTRIBUTABLE
ENERGY IS STILL WELL UP IN THE ARCTIC...POORLY SAMPLED. BUT CAN NOT
IGNORE THE CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE SIGNALING THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS E/SE-COASTAL MA. CIPS ANALOGS ARE
SHOWING SOME SIGNAL AS ARE SREF PROBABILISTIC IMPACTS.

WEIGHING A CONSENSUS OF 11.12Z/12.0Z ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS...LOW PRESSURE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TRANSITIONS SE AND
OFFSHORE OF S NEW ENGLAND. ANTICIPATING AN OVER-RUNNING SETUP AHEAD
OF THE DEEPENING LOW AS S-FLOW ASCENDS ALONG AND AHEAD. BAROCLINIC-
LEAF BENEATH INCREASING DIFLUENCE ALOFT. CLASSIC. EXPECTING A LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW FOR THE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING TIME FRAME.
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW WILL MAINTAIN / DRIVE COLD
AIR S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. LIKELY TO SEE THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
A COASTAL FRONT THROUGH SE NEW ENGLAND. COULD THIS BE A FOCUS FOR A
MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

SHOULD THE LOW DEEPEN AND INTENSIFIES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE EXPECT
A STRENGTHENING S-FETCH OF WARM-MOIST AIR TO ISENTROPICALLY ASCEND
AND CYCLONICALLY TROWAL REARWARD TOWARDS THE W/NW-QUADRANT OF THE
LOW ALONG THE 270-280K SURFACES WHERE THE COMBINATION OF H8-6 MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS / DEFORMATION ALLOWS FOR MESOSCALE MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOWBANDING. 12.0Z GFS BUFKIT PROFILES EXHIBIT DECENT DEEP-
LAYER LIFT AROUND AND THROUGH DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE REGIONS. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITH -EPV. EXPECTING AN
ENVIRONMENT YIELDING NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH SNOWFALL
RATES AT LEAST ON THE ORDER OF 1-INCH. STARTING TO SEE PROBABILISTIC
SIGNALS FROM SREF MEANS.

FOCUS IS ACROSS E/SE-COASTAL MA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN
CONCURRENTLY THE INTENSITY OF THE STORM RESULTS IN STRONG N/NW-
WINDS. PRONOUNCED ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS DRAWS
ARCTIC AIR N/W INTO THE STORM RESULTING IN A VERY FLUFFY SNOW. COULD
EASILY BE TALKING SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS IN EXCESS OF 20:1. NO DOUBT
OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. LAPSE RATES VERY STEEP THROUGH WHICH
MOMENTUM TRANSFER WOULD BE EASILY ACCOMPLISHED TO THE SURFACE. WIND
HEADLINES CERTAIN SHOULD THE STORM EVOLVE AS CONSENSUS OF FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY. ALL COMBINED...THERE IS
THE PROPENSITY FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS E/SE-COASTAL MA ESP
CAPE ANN / CAPE COD...WITH WIND CHILL HEADLINES ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO THE W FOR THE TIMEFRAME.

BUT A WORD OF CAUTION. KEY TO THIS FORECAST HOWEVER GLOOMY IT MAY
SOUND ABOVE IS HOW THE LOW EVOLVES IN PROXIMITY TO S NEW ENGLAND. IF
THE STORM DEVELOPS FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...THEN IMPACTS WOULD MOSTLY
STAY OFFSHORE. YET FEEL CONSISTENT SIGNAL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS FROM ENSEMBLE-MEANS OF A CLOSED LOW PATTERN LENDS CONSIDERABLE
WEIGHT THAT ANY SURFACE REFLECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN REGIONS OF
BEST BAROCLINICITY OFFSHORE WOULD SLOW AND BECOME CAPTURED BENEATH
LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT SUCH THAT IT WOULD REMAIN IN PROXIMITY TO S
NEW ENGLAND AS IT OCCLUDES. WE HAVE SEEN IT BEFORE. LIKELY TO SEE
WOBBLES IN TERMS OF STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT-TIME...SO BEST ADVICE IS TO STAY TUNED TO THE
LATEST FORECASTS WHILE GETTING PREPARED FOR A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.

PRE-PLANNING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING...FOCUS IS UPON
THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON IS AROUND 730 AM ABOVE 10
FEET. STRENGTH OF THE ANTICIPATING N/NW-FLOW THE RESIDENCY OF WHICH
LOOKS TO OCCUR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY COULD POTENTIALLY GENERATE A
SIGNIFICANT SURGE THE FOCUS OF WHICH WOULD BE ACROSS THE N-FACING
SHORELINES...PLACES LIKE CAPE COD BAY AND NANTUCKET. PRELIMINARY
THINKING IF OUTCOMES DEVELOP AS ADVERTISED IN DETERMINISTIC FORECAST
SOLUTIONS.

[Damage In Tolland]

Except not one model shows warning level snows here.

As has been discussed ad nauseum by mets..please do not focus on qpf

 

What do you think wind gusts will be like?

[Spoons56]

Solid BOX AFD above. They're going all out on ratios: "...in excess of 20:1".

[moneypitmike]

Solid BOX AFD above. They're going all out on ratios: "...in excess of 20:1".

 

I don't think those ratios apply to the entire CWA as not all areas will experience good snow growth.  Many will see good, but I won't be surprised for a lot of areas to experience some sand-like conditions.

[Spoons56]

I don't think those ratios apply to the entire CWA as not all areas will experience good snow growth. Many will see good, but I won't be surprised for a lot of areas to experience some sand-like conditions.

True. This may be one of those rare occasions where eastern SNE sees 15-20:1 ratios. Should be a fun storm in many ways.

[Zeus]

Solid BOX AFD above. They're going all out on ratios: "...in excess of 20:1".

 

There's a "COULD" in front of that. We're still a ways out, there's still some wiggling to be done. Looks like Cape Ann north and east are in the best spot from the consensus I'm currently gathering, but 12z's and 00z's still to come before we see the whites of its flakes; given the explosive nature of the threat, I'd say we may yet see some shifts.

[MarkO]

20:1 ratios and a bombing low in GOM. Eastern areas gonna get pounded. Doesn't look impressive for other parts of NE, but holy mackerel, another coastal for Wednesday! Thank God the kids have February vacation or they'd be in double digits days off.

[Spoons56]

There's a "COULD" in front of that. We're still a ways out, there's still some wiggling to be done. Looks like Cape Ann north and east are in the best spot from the consensus I'm currently gathering, but 12z's and 00z's still to come before we see the whites of its flakes; given the explosive nature of the threat, I'd say we may yet see some shifts.

I'm not taking it as gospel, simply interesting to even see such ratios mentioned. We'll most likely be on the outside looking in out in ORH, but should still be fun to watch unfold. After the last few weeks I'd have to be one ungrateful chump to bemoan not jackpotting in this one.

[weathafella]

There's a "COULD" in front of that. We're still a ways out, there's still some wiggling to be done. Looks like Cape Ann north and east are in the best spot from the consensus I'm currently gathering, but 12z's and 00z's still to come before we see the whites of its flakes; given the explosive nature of the threat, I'd say we may yet see some shifts.

Well put. A 50 mile total shift would make me far more confident of a blockbuster.

[ORH_wxman]

I'm not taking it as gospel, simply interesting to even see such ratios mentioned. We'll most likely be on the outside looking in out in ORH, but should still be fun to watch unfold. After the last few weeks I'd have to be one ungrateful chump to bemoan not jackpotting in this one.

 

I think ORH will do ok in this one...they won't get the most, but as long as that ULL tracks below LI like most guidance has it, I do think there will be a period of easterly inflow and heavier snow.

 

For SNE, i'd most want to be in Essex county, but we're still not done with the model wiggles in this I don't think.

 

 

If the ULL trakcs more over CT or something, then we'll just get advisory snows I think or something.

[Lava Rock]

This keeps up we will start challenging seasonal all time records

No riding Sunday?

[dryslot]

No riding Sunday?

Not likely

[Spoons56]

I think ORH will do ok in this one...they won't get the most, but as long as that ULL tracks below LI like most guidance has it, I do think there will be a period of easterly inflow and heavier snow.

For SNE, i'd most want to be in Essex county, but we're still not done with the model wiggles in this I don't think.

If the ULL trakcs more over CT or something, then we'll just get advisory snows I think or something.

Yeah, I'm "expecting" 5-10", recognizing it could trend down toward 3-6", and holding out hope for 10"+ out this way. Looking forward to today's model runs.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah, I'm "expecting" 5-10", recognizing it could trend down toward 3-6", and holding out hope for 10"+ out this way. Looking forward to today's model runs.

 

 

Yep, that's pretty reasonable. I think 5" is a decent bet in ORH early on...and we may get to double digits.

 

I'll be watching the ULL track very close. We really can't afford a 50-100 mile nudge north on it. OTOH, a 50 miles nudge S would be very helpful for increasing confidence for a higher end warning event.

[Zeus]

Well put. A 50 mile total shift would make me far more confident of a blockbuster.

 

This IS a blockbuster right now, just not necessarily for us. Which is a bit of a shame, because I love us.

 

As stated, there IS time for adjustment. But right now we work with what we have in front of us; Cape Ann on north and east is in the "meat" right now.

 

We expect *some* impact here, and await 12z with open minds and open hearts.

[CT Valley Snowman]

taking ratios into consideration,I could see how the Eastern one-third of Connecticut could hit warning level snows with the remaining two thirds of the state having a three to six inch snow fall based on the current data I'm looking at. I don't see anyone in eastern Connecticut going much above 6-7 inches without a further shift south and west which obviously cannot be ruled out

[N. OF PIKE]

 

This clearly shows how the GFS has come south and west the last couple of runs twds. the Euro

 

 

 

From the perspective of getting a LARGE event 10-12+"

 

Looking at the orientation of that 5H vort, wouldn't we want that a bit more "compact" and less elongated. Is that a key for us , and ALSO  I mean I would THINK  given the Angle that it is traversing SE-E-NE,  isn't that also much less efficient for getting forcing Just North  of the 5h LOW or for lack of better speak getting onshore inflow point E-W (just to north of it) then if the 5H track was approaching us from WSW or SW which would give it more time to establish  the inflow as well as also orient it (W-E) .The inflow  we may "be accustomed to seeing" if we just focus on the 12z 5H low position above may be further NW given the angle this is traversing us is what I am getting at . In summary for E SNE to see higher probability of 10-12+

 

1.  we need  a more compact vert (so that SE-NW axis of forcing determined by angle it traverses us)  is "tighter to the 5h low (and thus impact areas further S and SW 

 

2.  AND ESPECIALLY  the STEEP ANGLE it approaches us (from NW) has issues inherent to it, In that as it approaches us from the NW and then E then NE that the best forcing will be further NW of it's actual 5H position (then if you just look at 5H position above) and say Boom "its under us". I mean if this vort was coming at us from the Due west before that 12z position above or from the SW or WSW wouldn't it give that 5H vort more TIME to get inflow established on a better orientation (W-E) for E SNE ..and then the foot plus amounts would likely be closer on the north side of the 5H track.

 

Seems the angle it is traversing us is BAKED INTO CAKE so we are left to hope for a tighter more compact vert that may take a tad better track, and based on the angle this is approaching and traversing us that it's pretty much a thread the needle event to get 10-12+ for E ma or maybe i'm off

[WintersComing]

I would have thought thats a pretty good spot for the ULL for a decent hit in CT.....no?

[Damage In Tolland]

I think ORH will do ok in this one...they won't get the most, but as long as that ULL tracks below LI like most guidance has it, I do think there will be a period of easterly inflow and heavier snow.

 

For SNE, i'd most want to be in Essex county, but we're still not done with the model wiggles in this I don't think.

 

 

If the ULL trakcs more over CT or something, then we'll just get advisory snows I think or something.

Is your feeling they are more likely to wiggle south or north?

[ORH_wxman]

I would have thought thats a pretty good spot for the ULL for a decent hit in CT.....no?

 

 

IT is...but there's some nuances in the PVA and such that cause it to push the best forcing a bit NE...also the inflow isn't overly strong on the north side of it...which is why the further west and southwest you are, the more trouble the precip has of getting there...the heavy stuff that is.

 

But I do think if the ULL makes a track like that, the precip would be a bit more robust on the NW side than modeled right now. It usually ends up working that way.

 

 

That said, we still need a ULL track like that...it's tedious. If it closes off just a bit late or tracks a hair north, then it's game over for heavier snow.

[WintersComing]

IT is...but there's some nuances in the PVA and such that cause it to push the best forcing a bit NE...also the inflow isn't overly strong on the north side of it...which is why the further west and southwest you are, the more trouble the precip has of getting there...the heavy stuff that is.

 

But I do think if the ULL makes a track like that, the precip would be a bit more robust on the NW side than modeled right now. It usually ends up working that way.

 

 

That said, we still need a ULL track like that...it's tedious. If it closes off just a bit late or tracks a hair north, then it's game over for heavier snow.

 

Gotcha...ty 

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Reading the AFD if we did pull ratios significantly above 10 to 1 down this way I can see this being a much larger deal. We will see with this run I think one way or the other.

[J Paul Gordon]

So, if the ULL is south of Long Island we can do well with snow inland due to easterly flow. High ratios help out. Trend is in the right direction (sort of) according to GFS.

 

Do I have this down correctly?

 

Looks like BUFKIT gives us about 6 in this one.

[ORH_wxman]

Is your feeling they are more likely to wiggle south or north?

 

 

I'm about 50/50 on it...GFS is trending south...Euro might have gone a razors edge north, but we're talking such small moves on the Euro.

 

I really don't have a greta feel for it. The trajectory it takes through the lakes would suggest further north to me, but this vort energy is so strong that it can definitely dig a bit.

[CT Valley Snowman]

yes but until the system intensifies and really begins to tap into that warm moist conveyor belt we are going to be talking about light to moderate rates, windy conditions and a very scenic wintry appeal with the heaviest rates with a well developed comma head from southern and eastern Maine into eastern New England. I could see how Kevin with his elevation and location could pull off a six to seven and I am probably looking at a 4 to 5 inches unless it continues to dig and intensify sooner

[moneypitmike]

I think ORH will do ok in this one...they won't get the most, but as long as that ULL tracks below LI like most guidance has it, I do think there will be a period of easterly inflow and heavier snow.

 

For SNE, i'd most want to be in Essex county, but we're still not done with the model wiggles in this I don't think.

 

 

If the ULL trakcs more over CT or something, then we'll just get advisory snows I think or something.

 

I'm shocked ORH might do okay.  Shocked I tell you. 

 

A near miss for something better in GC this go 'round methinks.  My eyes are on next week for here.