CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The 6z GFS was a bit SW of 00z. This matters more after the low bombs out in the GOM and any backlash is sent SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Well I think some elaboration is needed with that. Like I said, we were just discussing why models were doing what they are doing. You can see at 6z, at 500mb, there is a bit better downstream ridging and the s/w digs a bit further south. It is things like that, which will have a say as to what happens here. I think we all agree that is a classic H5 track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spoons56 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Amateur question: If the H5 track is in a great position for SNE what is holding back the storm as a whole from being great? Just trying to wrap my head around the other pieces involved in this puzzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Epic hit for ME and SE NH this run.Compromise. ASOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 its the lack of a good block and the next time there is a good block there probably wont be a sw like this one wearing a superman cape....im not sold that ema doesnt get truly destroyed with up to two feet but it just may be more along the coast within 20 miles or out to the cape and islands but prob not bid....just my thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Like I said, we were just discussing why models were doing what they are doing. You can see at 6z, at 500mb, there is a bit better downstream ridging and the s/w digs a bit further south. It is things like that, which will have a say as to what happens here. I think we all agree that is a classic H5 track. But regardless..shouldn't we expect to see a sizeable snow event region wide as long as the 500 travels out bombs south of LI and the low bombs, with Eastern areas being favored for heaviest amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Amateur question: If the H5 track is in a great position for SNE what is holding back the storm as a whole from being great? Just trying to wrap my head around the other pieces involved in this puzzle. I mentioned it earlier last night. It depends on nuances. So, if we can correct these..it would result in a better solution, but there are reasons models are doing what they are doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 But regardless..shouldn't we expect to see a sizeable snow event region wide as long as the 500 travels out bombs south of LI and the low bombs, with Eastern areas being favored for heaviest amounts? Well yeah we'll all see something. But I was just discussing why models were doing what they are doing. You can see how even small corrections like what the 6z Gfs did means a lot to SNE. I like the overall look still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This clearly shows how the GFS has come south and west the last couple of runs twds. the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 And that makes my point about Maine. Best forcing there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It's too bad it doesn't slow a tad. The ULL track is great, but it's just a tad too progressive to get its act together verbatim for something larger. Maybe future runs improve. This has been my concern all along for this. I guess it's magnified for us in the hinterlands hoping for something significant. Man, I wish I was still up in Maine this season--already 95" in my hood up there (same town as John (Mainephotog). Best guess at this point for western areas is a few inches, a breeze, and some low bp. 12.9/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 And that makes my point about Maine. Best forcing there. Each move south it gets better and better for SNE like GGEM/Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Each move south it gets better and better for SNE like GGEM/Euro Right, but the orientation needs to improve a bit too for you guys. It's more than a tick south that is needed for CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Right, but the orientation needs to improve a bit too for you guys. It's more than a tick south that is needed for CT. And BOS. And again we're only talking about the GFS and how it's s till correcting twds. Euro/Ukie/GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spoons56 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I mentioned it earlier last night. It depends on nuances. So, if we can correct these..it would result in a better solution, but there are reasons models are doing what they are doing. Thanks, my 2 years as a meteo major left me with "conversational meteorology" skills haha. Still learning. Hoping for some steady trending of an earlier bombing on today's model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The GFS is downright vicious around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This clearly shows how the GFS has come south and west the last couple of runs twds. the Euro I see the tick south, but it looks SE to me, not SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Can anyone discuss how strong the wind gust potential is with this region wide? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It is notable that Hpc has no probs of 12 plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spoons56 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I see the tick south, but it looks SE to me, not SW. It's definitely SE, but it also appears more consolidated (wrapped up) in each successive run. Hopefully this can slow it down/ cause it to bomb earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Somewhat disappointing trends overnight outside of eastern areas. Was hoping for a continued trend SW. Either way even if it's a minor storm back here in terms of snow the cold/wind should be impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Euro ensembles have backed off the probabilities of 0.5" liquid back this way. Have ramped up for far eastern areas and SE NH/Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 For those who partake in the examination of the variable known as QPF, Note: All these totals include tomorrow which is less than 0.1" for all except in PF land. No easy way to see total without it unfortunately on WxBell. 0.3"+ for all 0.5"+ from the southeast corner of CT to Mt. Tolland to SkiMRG to the VT/NY border and then due north. 0.7"+ from PVD-ORH-VT/NH border at the widest part of NH and then due north. 1"+ from BOS and then up into NH just west of I93 1.4"+ far NEMA to just south of Sunday River to Houlton, ME 1.8"+ southern ME(50 miles or less from the coast). Fine by me. As long as we see that trend cease and desist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Outer Cape Cod MA winds look mighty impressive on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 ORH hills get a decent snow on the GFS, but ME, eastern MA, coastal NH do better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Lock it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Somewhat disappointing trends overnight outside of eastern areas. Was hoping for a continued trend SW. Either way even if it's a minor storm back here in terms of snow the cold/wind should be impressive. As long as that thing goes south of us..we are in good shape..Not a blockbuster..but warning level snows and wind etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Somewhat disappointing trends overnight outside of eastern areas. Was hoping for a continued trend SW. Either way even if it's a minor storm back here in terms of snow the cold/wind should be impressive. Agreed. The shifts last night were not encouraging for southern and western areas. That said, if we can manage some good ratios, we could still eek our some deceptive accumulation that will sublimate away quickly in the ensuing dry air mass. Leading up to that, we'll still add a few inches and have a nice breeze to enjoy. My eyes are on next week for the better snows out here. 12.6/9 sn- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Lock it This one is yours--again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 As long as that thing goes south of us..we are in good shape..Not a blockbuster..but warning level snows and wind etc. Except not one model shows warning level snows here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.