Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yeah better for Moosup than the GFS.better for a whole lot of peeps,you should know by now mby means not so much as others. Just want to see all get a bunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It's looking like we will need another 12 hours before we gets some model consensus. Each global still has different scenarios with track of ULL and development of surface low. Right now the only forecast with confidence is saying there is a good chance of 6" plus in Eastern New England, with possible blizzard conditions due to wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Ukie @72h. 500mb track looks to track under LI. ImageUploadedByTapatalk1423717388.824125.jpg Weaker with the upper level low than the GFS, but only a difference of 501dm to 498dm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Honestly eduggs, it looks fine for eastern SNE right now, we have room for improvement still. We have a 492dm powderkeg running south of our region, something is gonna give. 492 doesn't do anything for me. As far as I'm concerned, it can stay in the arctic. You don't need a deep ULL to induce a bomb. A modest shortwave into strong baroclinicity will do the trick. What we could use is some Gulf moisture. Northwesterly winds throughout the southeast is generally not what I want to see a day before a noreaster. 15" snowpack is neat, but it's been all nickel dime out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 492 doesn't do anything for me. As far as I'm concerned, it can stay in the arctic. You don't need a deep ULL to induce a bomb. A modest shortwave into strong baroclinicity will do the trick. What we could use is some Gulf moisture. Northwesterly winds throughout the southeast is generally not what I want to see a day before a noreaster. 15" snowpack is neat, but it's been all nickel dime out this way. I bet your total snowfall for the season still beats out my 36.5" for the year, and 30.4" of that received in one storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 We need a hyperventilating smiley. A brown bag that inflates and deflates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think the euro pretty much stays the course. Doesn't really seem like we've learned all that much so far tonight.... Basically the same issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I like your enthusiasm. haha. I'd toss the GGEM solution as that inverted trough looks too weird. I think the EURO comes in as a decent hit. There may be a limit to how ridiculous this can get. The impact is huge though and just awe-inspiring even if it comes out to be a 4-8" event or something like that. The hits just keep coming over the same areas it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 instantweathermaps.com is what I use to get the GFS and NAM quickly, and I use weatherbell(It's $20 a month, but well worth it IMO) for the other models(including the Euro) and for more detailed analysis of the GFS/NAM because their graphics are much better and you can get zoomed in views which are critical for details. Thanks so much for these awesome links! Pretty old-school (or maybe getting pretty old?) here, used to relying on the NCEP site. So much has changed, with regards to technology, since my days of active forecasting in the early 90's. I agree that $20 is very little investment for enhanced analysis ability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GFS snows for about 30 hours according the coolwx.com sounding maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Thanks so much for these awesome links! Pretty old-school (or maybe getting pretty old?) here, used to relying on the NCEP site. So much has changed, with regards to technology, since my days of active forecasting in the early 90's. I agree that $20 is very little investment for enhanced analysis ability. You're very welcome! Also, for a free site, try http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/index.html, they have many more zoomed in views compared to the NECP site and much better graphics as well. Really the reason I pay for weatherbell is for full Euro and UKMET access, the other models are a nice perk but you can get just as good graphics elsewhere(Like at TT linked above). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 bro http://www.weather5280.com/models/gfs/00z/conus/ Thanks so much, Ginxy! You guys are such a huge help. So many knowledgeable and thoughtful posters here! It's the aforementioned reason that I don't feel the need to post much analysis myself, since the discussion here typically covers all the major analytical details, of this most fascinating and inexact science. Simply put, I thoroughly enjoy reading the various posts and the humor that accompanies so many of them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Emergency vet visit so I'm up. Sweet MEX numbers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Emergency vet visit so I'm up. Sweet MEX numbers!Please share!8s all around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Please share! 8s all around? http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getall.pl?sta=KBOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Emergency vet visit so I'm up. Sweet MEX numbers! Sorry to hear that, hope the little guy(or girl) is OK. And yeah, checking them out now and they look great. BOS is 4 Saturday and 8 Sunday ORH is 4 and 8 BDL is 4 and 4 PWM 4 and 8 PYM 2 and 8 PVD 2 and 8 Others: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products/bullform.mex.htm, tick your station of choice and scroll down to the bottom of the page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Please share! 8s all around? Eastern areas off the cape yes plus 4 in any cases. West cape strong and east cape less so. Everyone warning numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Golden peeing blood in the snow (snow has diagnostic capabilities)adds think it should be addressed. Uti and I'm up for the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 492 doesn't do anything for me. As far as I'm concerned, it can stay in the arctic. You don't need a deep ULL to induce a bomb. A modest shortwave into strong baroclinicity will do the trick. What we could use is some Gulf moisture. Northwesterly winds throughout the southeast is generally not what I want to see a day before a noreaster. 15" snowpack is neat, but it's been all nickel dime out this way. This is the point mostly being ignored and helps to deprive the system of some moisture for a few hours during the ramp up, as it develops moisture in the cold air it's moving by and then we rely on a system to throw moisture back. I mean I think expectations away from the coast news to be tempered and the realization that the euro may yet again have pinched this off a little early/sw are possible if not probable. Gem is a nice hit here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 They do drop off fairly dramatically SW of BDL though(DXR is only 1, 2 and BDR 1, 1). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Sorry to hear that, hope the little guy(or girl) is OK. And yeah, checking them out now and they look great. BOS is 4 Saturday and 8 Sunday ORH is 4 and 8 BDL is 4 and 4 PWM 4 and 8 PYM 2 and 8 PVD 2 and 8 Others: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products/bullform.mex.htm, tick your station of choice and scroll down to the bottom of the page. Sorry to hear that, hope the little guy(or girl) is OK. And yeah, checking them out now and they look great. BOS is 4 Saturday and 8 Sunday ORH is 4 and 8 BDL is 4 and 4 PWM 4 and 8 PYM 2 and 8 PVD 2 and 8 Others: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products/bullform.mex.htm, tick your station of choice and scroll down to the bottom of the page. 4 and 6 in both CON and LCI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The trends at 00z are pretty neutral thus far vs 12z...maybe slightly better. The problem this system will fight is getting the conveyors cranking efficiently. The guidance wants to disrupt it a bit on the eastern and northeastern periphery by elongating it...i.e. th einverted trough structure. This limits inflow of Atlantic moisture into SNE. We still get some decent inflow...otherwise you wouldn't be getting warning snows on some of these runs, but it's why we aren't seeing a bunch of Euro-esque outputs. Even the Euro itself fights this problem somewhat but manages to overcome it and consolidate everything at the last minute enough fr a larger hit. What we are looking for is a trend away from this inverted trough structure. It starts with the ULL. Keep that more consolidated and not stretched too much...this helps downstream ridging which has been an issue in this system on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The trends at 00z are pretty neutral thus far vs 12z...maybe slightly better. The problem this system will fight is getting the conveyors cranking efficiently. The guidance wants to disrupt it a bit on the eastern and northeastern periphery by elongating it...i.e. th einverted trough structure. This limits inflow of Atlantic moisture into SNE. We still get some decent inflow...otherwise you wouldn't be getting warning snows on some of these runs, but it's why we aren't seeing a bunch of Euro-esque outputs. Even the Euro itself fights this problem somewhat but manages to overcome it and consolidate everything at the last minute enough fr a larger hit. What we are looking for is a trend away from this inverted trough structure. It starts with the ULL. Keep that more consolidated and not stretched too much...this helps downstream ridging which has been an issue in this system on the models. Agreed. It all just looks to come at us a bit further north than we would like and consolidates a little late. My guess is the euro was on the crack pipe again and will tend more towards elongation. But we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The trends at 00z are pretty neutral thus far vs 12z...maybe slightly better. The problem this system will fight is getting the conveyors cranking efficiently. The guidance wants to disrupt it a bit on the eastern and northeastern periphery by elongating it...i.e. th einverted trough structure. This limits inflow of Atlantic moisture into SNE. We still get some decent inflow...otherwise you wouldn't be getting warning snows on some of these runs, but it's why we aren't seeing a bunch of Euro-esque outputs. Even the Euro itself fights this problem somewhat but manages to overcome it and consolidate everything at the last minute enough fr a larger hit. What we are looking for is a trend away from this inverted trough structure. It starts with the ULL. Keep that more consolidated and not stretched too much...this helps downstream ridging which has been an issue in this system on the models. Maybe I'm remembering incorrectly... For the 1/27-28 blizzard models similarly struggled with the immense amount of vorticity swinging around the trough. Both the Euro and CMC at some point spawned multiple lows bouncing around that disjointed inflow. Ultimately this was a signal that the dominant low would form further east. I raise this because 12z and 0z CMC today again had 2 separate lows, one further northeast that is disjointing the inflow. We have a ways, wouldn't be too confident of anything beyond 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Maybe I'm remembering incorrectly... For the 1/27-28 blizzard models similarly struggled with the immense amount of vorticity swinging around the trough. Both the Euro and CMC at some point spawned multiple lows bouncing around that disjointed inflow. Ultimately this was a signal that the dominant low would form further east. I raise this because 12z and 0z CMC today again had 2 separate lows, one further northeast that is disjointing the inflow. We have a ways, wouldn't be too confident of anything beyond 96 hours. That pretty much sums it up. It was that wobble of the outer low around the extension that shafted jersey. Most models non euro have a similar deal this time to one extent or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 euro taking a while eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 euro taking a while eh? It's just getting to the good part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 euro taking a while eh? come on king Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 euro taking a while eh? Out to 54 on WxBell. From my very quick comparisons I wouldn't be shocked if it comes in a little north of the 12z run, but no major changes so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Euro is coming in pretty south again, though probably not as much as 12z...but we're talking small differences again...model noise...similar to the same extent the GFS came south at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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