CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Yeah the trough is actually broader, but with it being broader, it is further north too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I like the Euro look...comes in a bit more shallow which actually helps it not dig ESE and miss us. It manages to swing around a little faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 12z Euro going out of its way to blase both events now too -- Interesting. Do we ride it, only to be notified in shorter terms? As others don't realize they are noting; these or significant enough morphology discontinuities to be suspect of everything and all guidance at this point. About the only thing consistent between the 00z and 12z run of the op. Euro is the fact that there are two deep troughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Baroclinic zone so far east. 540 line is near Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Still a potent s/w look. I mean this far out..no complaints here really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Still a potent s/w look. I mean this far out..no complaints here really. I'm not sure, from what's been posted here so far, what impact -- if any -- from Sunday's threat the Euro has shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I'm not sure, from what's been posted here so far, what impact -- if any -- from Sunday's threat the Euro has shown. 3-6? guess from analysis by posters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Thought it would be better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I like the Euro look...comes in a bit more shallow which actually helps it not dig ESE and miss us. It manages to swing around a little faster.Shallow (further north trough )was Exactly what i was hoping for given other issuesI mean a hr would work to, but i felt this one slipping and I'll take this over a Jack Clark prodigious wiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I'm not sure, from what's been posted here so far, what impact -- if any -- from Sunday's threat the Euro has shown. Well this far out, I'm not so sure I would be happy to be in a bullseye either. The issues still exist regarding downstream ridging and even the ridging out west which is a bit flat, but it's a pretty strong s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 Wow. That was anticlimatic and rather inconclusive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Yeah that was a pretty big difference with the handling of the ridge out west being flatter from the 0z run, Just shows that some of these differences will effect what happens down stream and i agree i would not want to be in the jack right now but what it shows this far out i think its in a good spot for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 This still has legs, remember how Juno looked at this lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 angle of the dangle is wrong for both events. I suspect this one gets shifted out in time too. It's basically right now where Thursdays event was a day or two ago on most models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Wow. That was anticlimatic and rather inconclusive. Still 5 days out...no consensus building until perhaps Friday 0z? I'm still interested to see what the EPS have? GEFS looked pretty good. Maybe this is your "climo intervention" just delayed - not denied? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 This has always been a pet peeve of mine. I for one, would be happy to be in the bullseye five days out every single time i could. (If i want to Maximize my % of getting a single hit) If you had 100 events and you were in the bulls eye for them all, how many would give you warning level snows ? More than if it was east 100x and more if it was (N, S,W) as well. I believe the times people were in bulls-eyes and missed were more MEMORABLE and ("sucked")so they weight that much more heavily than "equal weighting" to all scenarios and then come up with this logic. I think Will would agree with me on this one. Unless however we expect this to trend west over time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 A lot of room either way. Minor changes can make it either a miss or huge hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I'm finally getting that the Sunday event is far from "decided". It gets a bit confusion when there is so much on the table all at once! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 This still has legs, remember how Juno looked at this lead time. Models adjusting 1000 miles within 4 days is definitely the exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 This has always been a pet peeve of mine. I for one, would be happy to be in the bullseye five days out every single time i could. If you had 100 events and you were in the bulls eye for them all, how many would give you warning level snows ? More than if it was east 100x and more if it was (N, S,W) as well. I believe the times people were in bulls-eyes and missed were more MEMORABLE and ("sucked")so they weight that much more heavily than "equal weighting" to all scenarios and then come up with this logic. I think Will would agree with me on this one. Unless however we expect this to trend west over time I would...there's been several events where we were bullseye 120 hours out and it held...1/12/11, 2/8/13 (Euro only), 12/13/07, etc. But at any rate, I can see where the idea that you don't want to be bullseyed comes from...mostly because it will not happen more often than it happens...but the math would tell you that if the model is missing you east by 100 miles, then you'd get hit even less often than if it was bullseyeing you 120 hours out...even if the bullseye scenario is still like a 40% success rate or something just to throw out an arbitrary number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 I like the Euro look...comes in a bit more shallow which actually helps it not dig ESE and miss us. It manages to swing around a little faster. The trade off is that it doesn't have the ability to be as large an impacter, right? Not as sharp.....more like a trong clipper, as opposed to a blizzard-whiff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 There's always the Navgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The trade off is that it doesn't have the ability to be as large an impacter, right? Not as sharp.....more like a trong clipper, as opposed to a blizzard-whiff? Yeah we're talking increasing the chances of 8"+ but decreasing the chances of 20"+...I would gladly trade the lower shot at 20" for a much higher shot at 10", but I know not everyone would agree. Regardless, still a lot of time on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 This has always been a pet peeve of mine. I for one, would be happy to be in the bullseye five days out every single time i could. (If i want to Maximize my % of getting a single hit) If you had 100 events and you were in the bulls eye for them all, how many would give you warning level snows ? More than if it was east 100x and more if it was (N, S,W) as well. I believe the times people were in bulls-eyes and missed were more MEMORABLE and ("sucked")so they weight that much more heavily than "equal weighting" to all scenarios and then come up with this logic. I think Will would agree with me on this one. Unless however we expect this to trend west over time You can always find events that stayed the course, but the point is..usually a climax solution this far out probably has only one way to go. It doesn't mean it goes poof and I like the look of this. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 Yeah we're talking increasing the chances of 8"+ but decreasing the chances of 20"+...I would gladly trade the lower shot at 20" for a much higher shot at 10", but I know not everyone would agree. Regardless, still a lot of time on this one. Yea, the larger event seems to be slipping for various reasons already stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Yeah we're talking increasing the chances of 8"+ but decreasing the chances of 20"+...I would gladly trade the lower shot at 20" for a much higher shot at 10", but I know not everyone would agree. Regardless, still a lot of time on this one. Still in a range where the ensembles have good value. I look forward to hearing about them, in detail, for my backyard and the locations I am likely to frequent -- like the Wegs on Route 9 in Chestnut Hill -- promptly upon their release and digestion later this shafternoon. I didn't mind the overall look of the GEFS at 12z... enough spread to doubt that today's unimpressive operation solutions are locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 You need duration for big events. This doesn't have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Still in a range where the ensembles have good value. I look forward to hearing about them, in detail, for my backyard and the locations I am likely to frequent -- like the Wegs on Route 9 in Chestnut Hill -- promptly upon their release and digestion later this shafternoon. I didn't mind the overall look of the GEFS at 12z... enough spread to doubt that today's unimpressive operation solutions are locked in. OT but wegman's has great wine prices and selection. Always a pre storm visit. Well if we go by the rule of Mondays this ones coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 You can always find events that stayed the course, but the point is..usually a climax solution this far out probably has only one way to go. It doesn't mean it goes poof and I like the look of this. Just saying.I mean this is OT but that seems like a too "simplified "perspective i.e "only one way to go" .(Starting from bullseye) It could trend east then come back west . It could shift very slightly (leaving you still crushed) or it could trend further and brush us or even further and miss. But it will be the starting point five days out that gives you the most snow on Average per try. Anyway sorry for OT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 You need duration for big events. This doesn't have it. Yeah I mean at first guess I wouldn't get excited for a big event. You can't rule something larger out for sure being 5 days away, but like Will said...probably better to, and much more likely for cheering a 10" event instead of something much larger. At least the way it looks right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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