Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Congratulations Portsmouth and coastal Maine.... 18-36". Dig this south 50 miles or SSW 50 and it's the same in Boston and Providence. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think we need wiggle room because it will probably tic ne late.May be wrong but didn't you post this afternoon tic NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 May be wrong but didn't you post this afternoon tic NW? Yes, I said I wouldn't be surprised to see that in the near term, but the ne tics usually occur from about hr 24 on in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Good news, our shortwave is being sampled tonight. By the balloon at Cambridge Bay (CYCB), Nunavut (west of Baffin Island). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Good news, our shortwave is being sampled tonight. By the balloon at Cambridge Bay (CYCB), Nunavut (west of Baffin Island). So that NAM run had it...interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Good news, our shortwave is being sampled tonight. By the balloon at Cambridge Bay (CYCB), Nunavut (west of Baffin Island). That's great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Good news, our shortwave is being sampled tonight. By the balloon at Cambridge Bay (CYCB), Nunavut (west of Baffin Island). I figured it was close tonight, that's good news and should impact forecasts immediately this evening. We'll see, I think your zones are in the line of fire in terms of the highest probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yeah and the NAM bumped southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I honestly don't think there is a model to handle the beasts from the north that well, all models have had a struggle with these systems due to the poor data sampling up in the NW territories. Not nearly as dense a network at the CONUS, but Cambridge Bay and Resolute Bay both launched balloons tonight that are sampling at least the outer periphery of the shortwave. Just because a system originates in the Arctic doesn't mean it's in a data hole. The Pacific you might have an argument, but believe it or not they do station people up on those glorified icebergs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The FIM lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I agree Will, wait until the 12z cycle tomorrow before jumping on JPs and maximum snow amounts, but the potential is there for a very healthy snowfall, I was wrong to bring up the potential for 30" of snow so early on today, but I just got my excitement juices following. Yes, it can be hard to contain those excitement juices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Not nearly as dense a network at the CONUS, but Cambridge Bay and Resolute Bay both launched balloons tonight that are sampling at least the outer periphery of the shortwave. Just because a system originates in the Arctic doesn't mean it's in a data hole. The Pacific you might have an argument, but believe it or not they do station people up on those glorified icebergs. iceberg is right -32°C °C °F Wind: W 18 km/h Wind Chill: -45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 If you want to see the results of 00z upper air here are the maps http://weather.gc.ca/analysis/index_e.html#UAA My take is that this ULL will carve south a little more effectively than GFS was saying earlier, it is bringing a weak Alberta clipper southeast for the ride and that should maybe space the contours a bit more than the ultra tight jet required to verify a northern position. Given the extreme upper air parameters associated with the ULL, explosive development will certainly take place as soon as the surface centre hits the coast, my guess is that the low will deepen to 970 mbs or lower at the BM and bury eastern New England in general with 25-40 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Here is a look at 00z tonight. The shortwave we care about is the red X, the nearest soundings are the pink stars. So it isn't like it's a complete mystery to the models tonight. Maybe the absolute strength of the shortwave is slightly under-sampled, but that could be argued at any part of the upper air network. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 0z NAM perfectly illustrates what the current ULL trajectory does...we watch the storm erupt but a little too far ENE so maybe Maine and Halifax get smoked. I think the NAM looks pretty good. Widespread plowable snow. The only thing it's missing is big QPF. EMA still gets clipped pretty good. Gonna be hard to position things much better with the ULL traversing the way it is. Still think QPF is underdone on the American models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The FIM lol. Did okay for the blizzard - arguably better than the Euro... Has it's moments, kind of like to look at it when we have data poor systems. First time I've mentioned it as I knew it would be poo-poo'd by the Euro-nites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 If you want to see the results of 00z upper air here are the maps http://weather.gc.ca/analysis/index_e.html#UAA My take is that this ULL will carve south a little more effectively than GFS was saying earlier, it is bringing a weak Alberta clipper southeast for the ride and that should maybe space the contours a bit more than the ultra tight jet required to verify a northern position. Given the extreme upper air parameters associated with the ULL, explosive development will certainly take place as soon as the surface centre hits the coast, my guess is that the low will deepen to 970 mbs or lower at the BM and bury eastern New England in general with 25-40 inches. Often overzealous, you nailed the 2/2 system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think the NAM looks pretty good. Widespread plowable snow. The only thing it's missing is big QPF. EMA still gets clipped pretty good. Gonna be hard to position things much better with the ULL traversing the way it is. Still think QPF is underdone on the American models. Part of that .....well look at the thermal profiles...540 is over Bermuda I think. System will have to work hard in the cold side of things. Has the energy aloft to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The 12z Nam tomorrow will probably be a bomb when it finally starts to get a real clue. It's already a bomb. Just doesn't produce really big QPF over SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Here is a look at 00z tonight. The shortwave we care about is the red X, the nearest soundings are the pink stars. So it isn't like it's a complete mystery to the models tonight. Maybe the absolute strength of the shortwave is slightly under-sampled, but that could be argued at any part of the upper air network. upperair.png Awesome stuff, thanks for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 What is the FIM? Don't know much about that piece of guidance... It's an experimental NECP model that was supposed to be the next great model back when they designed it a few years ago(I believe it was supposed to be a replacement for the GFS), but when it was tested, it turned out to be a complete flop and never went operational as a result. It's known as the ****ing incompetent model for a reason though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Did okay for the blizzard - arguably better than the Euro... Has it's moments, kind of like to look at it when we have data poor systems. First time I've mentioned it as I knew it would be poo-poo'd by the Euro-nites. Probably has its moments, but I won't lose sleep Over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Going through the last 5 pages was painful! You'd think we were back in mid Jan with 5" to account for. Anyway, I'd take the NAM verbatim any day. GFS looks just like 12z/18z so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 If you want to see the results of 00z upper air here are the maps http://weather.gc.ca/analysis/index_e.html#UAA My take is that this ULL will carve south a little more effectively than GFS was saying earlier, it is bringing a weak Alberta clipper southeast for the ride and that should maybe space the contours a bit more than the ultra tight jet required to verify a northern position. Given the extreme upper air parameters associated with the ULL, explosive development will certainly take place as soon as the surface centre hits the coast, my guess is that the low will deepen to 970 mbs or lower at the BM and bury eastern New England in general with 25-40 inches. I love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Well, the hype has begun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Broken clock is right twice a day Very curious about the soon to be coming 00z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 For those that are saying the PNA ridge is poor, is wrong, GFS has it amplified over the Canadian Rockies. This system is huge and in the arctic jet stream, this system will be extremely powerful once it hits the coastline, temp gradient will explode the surface system and feedback into the upper level system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Here is a look at 00z tonight. The shortwave we care about is the red X, the nearest soundings are the pink stars. So it isn't like it's a complete mystery to the models tonight. Maybe the absolute strength of the shortwave is slightly under-sampled, but that could be argued at any part of the upper air network. upperair.png 494 closed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Well, the hype has begun... You should see TWC. They've been showing every model run from the GFS/EURO/ and even RPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 0z GFS is not blinking, Might be slightly north of 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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