TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Didn't the Euro even show this area being right at the S. extent of the good snows?? It just seems to me that even a slight bump N from its depiction would mean a lighter event here. I hope I awake to posts about this digging further S but from all the posts I just read that seems highly unlikely. Not really. The euro especially had some room to play with in this area.... We weren't really close to being fringed. Its a tedious setup though.... I'd bank on at least a couple inches at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 not according to ClinchIt'd probably help if you were clear on what YOUR expectations were?Are you expecting 10" in Boston? 20"? 30"? What about YBY, Cape, Worcester? You're taking shots but exactly what are you expecting other than an epic strong ULL and innuendo of imminent doom that is being underplayed by some of is at 84 hours? Do I need to fill my tub with water and start rationing bread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Thanks for all the education tonight! I notice a wind from the NNE in NH in that scenario. Generally I do better with a more NE wind. Will those wind directions bet the same at all levels of the atmosphere or is the NNE wind feeding in cold while winds at another layer of the atmosphere are feeding in moisture? I thought GYX was quite conservative, although perhaps appropriate in the zones. Basically 50% chance of snow at CON Sat night but not on Sunday. I think the Euro and GFS were both above .5qpf to CON weren't they? At least Euro was. Maybe GFS was .25-.5. That's at tropopause level, which up around here might be as low as 600 mb. So basically you're looking at what we're used to calling mid level lows based on standard meteorological model charts. At the true middle of the system you'll probably have a pretty good easterly component. I think we are a bit conservative, especially on PoP. I mean we have low chance PoP in areas, that's not exactly soundings the alarms. Not that we need to cry from the rooftops yet, but I think a 50/50 shot is probably necessary for much of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 NAM does look awesome...but long range NAM...so we wait for the big boys to run As bad as it is, it's like the SREFS closer in.....sometimes it's useful for trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Exactly...which is exactly why the fella who has plans to take his girl down to Newport Saturday shouldn't cancel. There's 8-10 inches of snow on the ground down here. 60 miles south epicosity meets banality. You guys have been stealing my snow for years..now you wanna steal my tourism dollars?! Let the guy have some fun...sure, it could be a tough ride home on Sunday...but Newport never ever jackpots and the odds of Newport, Rhode Island...the picturesque snow-hole of New England getting a "blizzard" this weekend are slim to none. I seriously hope your joking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Absolutely bipolar thread we have here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Not really. The euro especially had some room to play with in this area.... We weren't really close to being fringed. Its a tedious setup though.... I'd bank on at least a couple inches at this point Lol Euro qpf TAN 1.44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Its decent but doesn't really explode until its pretty far east, definitely dug more and the wave looked more consolidated so I woud say at least a slight improvement on the Nam Something on the NAM doesnt look right if you look at SLP at Hour 75 and then the SLP at Hour 78. Looks like convective processes as the SLP jumped east as the storm begins to bomb. Could be wrong, but I bet it's tucked in a bit closer than what the NAM has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Just good to see a solution like that is plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Lol Euro qpf TAN 1.44 Right, which is why I said we weren't really close to getting shafted with a euro look. Pretty sweet all around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It'd probably help if you were clear on what YOUR expectations were? Are you expecting 10" in Boston? 20"? 30"? What about YBY, Cape, Worcester? You're taking shots but exactly what are you expecting other than an epic strong ULL and innuendo of imminent doom that is being underplayed by some of is at 84 hours? Do I need to fill my tub with water and start rationing bread? Did you move to Hull, Gloucester, Weymouth, Boston? If not you will be fine. I already laid out my expectations, care less about QPF and Jack's. I am all in for high ratio,big lapse rate high wind brutal cold snowstorm. You figure out the rest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Something on the NAM doesnt look right if you look at SLP at Hour 75 and then the SLP at Hour 78. Looks like convective processes as the SLP jumped east as the storm begins to bomb. Could be wrong, but I bet it's tucked in a bit closer than what the NAM has The 12z Nam tomorrow will probably be a bomb when it finally starts to get a real clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 NAM does look awesome...but long range NAM...so we wait for the big boys to run I guess the question is whether its view of the next 48 hour extrapolates well going forward....and which model it most looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Guys, discuss the emotional reaction to yours and others' expectations in the banter thread...this is for meteorological discussion of this storm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Not really. The euro especially had some room to play with in this area.... We weren't really close to being fringed. Its a tedious setup though.... I'd bank on at least a couple inches at this point I had looked at one of those Euro snow maps earlier and it seemed to me the real accumulating stuff ended just off of the S coast but I could have been wrong. For you not so much but the last two storms I was just far enough S to miss out on the good stuff and I'm hoping it isn't a three-peat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'd be much more excited if I was in Portsmouth, Portland and up through to Downeast. At least right now. I just don't remember many historic, epic, systems that dump when they're already north of Chatham before really developing. That's all I'm saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'd be much more excited if I was in Portsmouth, Portland and up through to Downeast. At least right now. I just don't remember many historic, epic, systems that dump when they're already north of Chatham before really developing. That's all I'm saying. Well, the EURO develops before the latitude of Chatham... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'd be much more excited if I was in Portsmouth, Portland and up through to Downeast. At least right now. I just don't remember many historic, epic, systems that dump when they're already north of Chatham before really developing. That's all I'm saying. Guess it depends on which model you are leaning on. Most of the non-GFS guidance develops the low rapidly before it reaches the latitude of CHH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The 500mb trough explodes at hour 84 on the 00z NAM, jet streak ups the ante to 120 knots over the Mid Atlantic States and OH Valley. It tucks westward around the CC area, with the low just east of CC at 992mb, this is much weaker than the GFS and EURO in the same location for the most part. The NAM is further south with the H5 low than the 18z run, but for the most part this is looking more and more like a very explosive setup for massive lift parameters and instability. This storm could really do it in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Guess it depends on which model you are leaning on. Most of the non-GFS guidance develops the low rapidly before it reaches the latitude of CHH. We just can't afford much of a compromise. The GFS needs to fail completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Again I am not leaning on the NAM at all, just seeing what the model shows for the most part. I would lean on the EURO more so in a much more dynamic setting. All models agree on one thing, this 500mb pattern will explode over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 We just can't afford much of a compromise. The GFS needs to fail completely. In order to achieve what? I'd think a 70/30 compromise would still be pretty damned good. It might not satiate the blood-thirsty JP fetishes, but a solid snowstorm nonetheless. At any rate, it's still early enough that we are probably not on the compromise train yet. We will need to see another model cycle or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 An explosive 500mb pattern will likely include a further southwest surface low depiction and a faster redevelopment with an explosive H5 low development down to 492dm. One thing is for certain, its gonna get extremely cold down here Sunday night into Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 We just can't afford much of a compromise. The GFS needs to fail completely. Who handles ULL from Hudson Bay the best? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Guess it depends on which model you are leaning on. Most of the non-GFS guidance develops the low rapidly before it reaches the latitude of CHH. In these situations I rely heavily on the FIM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I agree Will, wait until the 12z cycle tomorrow before jumping on JPs and maximum snow amounts, but the potential is there for a very healthy snowfall, I was wrong to bring up the potential for 30" of snow so early on today, but I just got my excitement juices following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Who handles ULL from Hudson Bay the best? I honestly don't think there is a model to handle the beasts from the north that well, all models have had a struggle with these systems due to the poor data sampling up in the NW territories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 In order to achieve what? I'd think a 70/30 compromise would still be pretty damned good. It might not satiate the blood-thirsty JP fetishes, but a solid snowstorm nonetheless. At any rate, it's still early enough that we are probably not on the compromise train yet. We will need to see another model cycle or two. I think we need wiggle room because it will probably tic ne late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 No doubt this is looking impressive meteorologically. I'm as much of a geek as the next guy with dynamic systems. But if you're only into the sensible weather IYBY then I can understand why some would be meh on this...especially in WNE. Can't speak for others, but I'm definitely not meh on this storm. ... I'm just meh on this storm for me. Out east, things will be epic. It would be nice to see some love in the form of a rotting def band, but it's also cool seeing Boston become more and more FUBAR with each subsequent direct hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 I agree Will, wait until the 12z cycle tomorrow before jumping on JPs and maximum snow amounts, but the potential is there for a very healthy snowfall, I was wrong to bring up the potential for 30" of snow so early on today, but I just got my excitement juices following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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