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Super Snow Sunday 2/15-Party Like it's 1717


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Didn't the Euro even show this area being right at the S. extent of the good snows?? It just seems to me that even a slight bump N from its depiction would mean a lighter event here. I hope I awake to posts about this digging further S but from all the posts I just read that seems highly unlikely.

Not really. The euro especially had some room to play with in this area.... We weren't really close to being fringed.

Its a tedious setup though.... I'd bank on at least a couple inches at this point

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not according to Clinch

It'd probably help if you were clear on what YOUR expectations were?

Are you expecting 10" in Boston? 20"? 30"?

What about YBY, Cape, Worcester? You're taking shots but exactly what are you expecting other than an epic strong ULL and innuendo of imminent doom that is being underplayed by some of is at 84 hours?

Do I need to fill my tub with water and start rationing bread?

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Thanks for all the education tonight!

I notice a wind from the NNE in NH in that scenario.  Generally I do better with a more NE wind.  Will those wind directions bet the same at all levels of the atmosphere or is the NNE wind feeding in cold while winds at another layer of the atmosphere are feeding in moisture?

 

I thought GYX was quite conservative, although perhaps appropriate  in the zones.  Basically 50% chance of snow at CON Sat night but not on Sunday.  I think the Euro and GFS were both above .5qpf to CON weren't they?  At least Euro was.  Maybe GFS was .25-.5.

 

That's at tropopause level, which up around here might be as low as 600 mb. So basically you're looking at what we're used to calling mid level lows based on standard meteorological model charts. At the true middle of the system you'll probably have a pretty good easterly component.

 

I think we are a bit conservative, especially on PoP. I mean we have low chance PoP in areas, that's not exactly soundings the alarms. Not that we need to cry from the rooftops yet, but I think a 50/50 shot is probably necessary for much of our area.

 

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Exactly...which is exactly why the fella who has plans to take his girl down to Newport Saturday shouldn't cancel.  There's 8-10 inches of snow on the ground down here.  60 miles south epicosity meets banality.  You guys have been stealing my snow for years..now you wanna steal my tourism dollars?!  Let the guy have some fun...sure, it could be a tough ride home on Sunday...but Newport never ever jackpots and the odds of Newport, Rhode Island...the picturesque snow-hole of New England getting a "blizzard" this weekend are slim to none.

 

I seriously hope your joking

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Its decent but doesn't really explode until its pretty far east, definitely dug more and the wave looked more consolidated so I woud say at least a slight improvement on the Nam

 

Something on the NAM doesnt look right if you look at SLP at Hour 75 and then the SLP at Hour 78.  Looks like convective processes as the SLP jumped east as the storm begins to bomb.  Could be wrong, but I bet it's tucked in a bit closer than what the NAM has

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It'd probably help if you were clear on what YOUR expectations were?

Are you expecting 10" in Boston? 20"? 30"?

What about YBY, Cape, Worcester? You're taking shots but exactly what are you expecting other than an epic strong ULL and innuendo of imminent doom that is being underplayed by some of is at 84 hours?

Do I need to fill my tub with water and start rationing bread?

Did you move to Hull, Gloucester, Weymouth, Boston? If not you will be fine. I already laid out my expectations, care less about QPF and Jack's. I am all in for high ratio,big lapse rate high wind brutal cold snowstorm. You figure out the rest
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Something on the NAM doesnt look right if you look at SLP at Hour 75 and then the SLP at Hour 78.  Looks like convective processes as the SLP jumped east as the storm begins to bomb.  Could be wrong, but I bet it's tucked in a bit closer than what the NAM has

The 12z Nam tomorrow will probably be a bomb when it finally starts to get a real clue.

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Not really. The euro especially had some room to play with in this area.... We weren't really close to being fringed.

Its a tedious setup though.... I'd bank on at least a couple inches at this point

I had looked at one of those Euro snow maps earlier and it seemed to me the real accumulating stuff ended just off of the S coast but I could have been wrong. For you not so much but the last two storms I was just far enough S to miss out on the good stuff and I'm hoping it isn't a three-peat.
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I'd be much more excited if I was in Portsmouth, Portland and up through to Downeast.   At least right now.  I just don't remember many historic, epic, systems that dump when they're already north of Chatham before really developing.  That's all I'm saying.

Well, the EURO develops before the latitude of Chatham...

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I'd be much more excited if I was in Portsmouth, Portland and up through to Downeast.   At least right now.  I just don't remember many historic, epic, systems that dump when they're already north of Chatham before really developing.  That's all I'm saying.

 

 

Guess it depends on which model you are leaning on. Most of the non-GFS guidance develops the low rapidly before it reaches the latitude of CHH.

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The 500mb trough explodes at hour 84 on the 00z NAM, jet streak ups the ante to 120 knots over the Mid Atlantic States and OH Valley.  It tucks westward around the CC area, with the low just east of CC at 992mb, this is much weaker than the GFS and EURO in the same location for the most part.  The NAM is further south with the H5 low than the 18z run, but for the most part this is looking more and more like a very explosive setup for massive lift parameters and instability.  This storm could really do it in 24 hours.

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We just can't afford much of a compromise.

The GFS needs to fail completely.

 

 

In order to achieve what?

 

 

I'd think a 70/30 compromise would still be pretty damned good. It might not satiate the blood-thirsty JP fetishes, but a solid snowstorm nonetheless.

 

At any rate, it's still early enough that we are probably not on the compromise train yet. We will need to see another model cycle or two.

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In order to achieve what?

 

 

I'd think a 70/30 compromise would still be pretty damned good. It might not satiate the blood-thirsty JP fetishes, but a solid snowstorm nonetheless.

 

At any rate, it's still early enough that we are probably not on the compromise train yet. We will need to see another model cycle or two.

I think we need wiggle room because it will probably tic ne late.

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No doubt this is looking impressive meteorologically. I'm as much of a geek as the next guy with dynamic systems. But if you're only into the sensible weather IYBY then I can understand why some would be meh on this...especially in WNE.

Can't speak for others, but I'm definitely not meh on this storm. ... I'm just meh on this storm for me. Out east, things will be epic. It would be nice to see some love in the form of a rotting def band, but it's also cool seeing Boston become more and more FUBAR with each subsequent direct hit.

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