CT Rain Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Disagree a 498 passing overhead is still going to be pretty sweet, you are looking for big qpf numbers, not me but heres some more pretty colors for you, Try to temper your enthusiasm you have been such a bundle of excitement since you missed the best storm of the year. From undah A 498 Dm 500 mb low overhead will do nothing for me. I'll forget about it by next week. I'm not debbying anything here just laying out appropriate caution flags. Still haven't had a good storm IMBY but that's not exactly clouding my forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Just after 7-8pm. Thanks. Don't have access to EC QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Hi everyone, i just want to say thank you, for the past few weeks, i and a co-worker have been putting in long hours snow plowing and removal, some mets on tv, i agree are pushing doomsday right now, i understand things change(tracks etc) but i always come to this site, for all opinions , and the most part you guys have been darn accurate on what areas will see more and less impact etc. Anyways thumbs up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 A 498 Dm 500 mb low overhead will do nothing for me. I'll forget about it by next week. I'm not debbying anything here just laying out appropriate caution flags. Still haven't had a good storm IMBY but that's not exactly clouding my forecasting. NB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Hi everyone, i just want to say thank you, for the past few weeks, i and a co-worker have been putting in long hours snow plowing and removal, some mets on tv, i agree are pushing doomsday right now, i understand things change(tracks etc) but i always come to this site, for all opinions , and the most part you guys have been darn accurate on what areas will see more and less impact etc. Anyways thumbs up Many talented pros and hobbyists. Welcome, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Steve, you can honestly tell me you wouldn't be a bit disappointed if this ULL passed over head with 1-3" of fluff? i'm not talking about complaining or anything...but deep down, you wouldn't be like "oh well, that sucks"... hard to envision that.even without a bomb that's 4-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave5 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Quick Question...I'm supposed to be taking my girlfriend from Boston to Newport Saturday morning for Valentines day, and then back on Sunday mid afternoon. What are the odds of this even being feasible at this point? Am I likely screwed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Quick Question...I'm supposed to be taking my girlfriend from Boston to Newport Saturday morning for Valentines day, and then back on Sunday mid afternoon. What are the odds of this even being feasible at this point? Am I likely screwed? Better than 50/50 you'll need a change of plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Quick Question...I'm supposed to be taking my girlfriend from Boston to Newport Saturday morning for Valentines day, and then back on Sunday mid afternoon. What are the odds of this even being feasible at this point? Am I likely screwed?if she's hot you better be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Quick Question...I'm supposed to be taking my girlfriend from Boston to Newport Saturday morning for Valentines day, and then back on Sunday mid afternoon. What are the odds of this even being feasible at this point? Am I likely screwed? You'll make it TO Newport... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Quick Question...I'm supposed to be taking my girlfriend from Boston to Newport Saturday morning for Valentines day, and then back on Sunday mid afternoon. What are the odds of this even being feasible at this point? Am I likely screwed? Plan on staying until Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Quick Question...I'm supposed to be taking my girlfriend from Boston to Newport Saturday morning for Valentines day, and then back on Sunday mid afternoon. What are the odds of this even being feasible at this point? Am I likely screwed? Slim and yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I have to go with Ryan on this. I'm seeing this is as a 1 in 4 shot that it's a major event for CT, statewide. While the bowling ball looks awesome and quite anomalous, my worry is that the mid levels are too far north for most in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foobar Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Quick Question...I'm supposed to be taking my girlfriend from Boston to Newport Saturday morning for Valentines day, and then back on Sunday mid afternoon. What are the odds of this even being feasible at this point? Am I likely screwed? I had no idea I could get this kind of advice here. Wow. I'm gonna buy flowers and make dinner for my wife of 30 years Saturday. 1983 Bordeaux too! What do you guys think my odds are? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I had no idea I could get this kind of advice here. Wow. I'm gonna buy flowers and make dinner for my wife of 30 years Saturday. 1983 Bordeaux too! What do you guys think my odds are? Thanks! 1 in 10, but that's high after 30yrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Pretty colors. If that ULL passes over KGON this storm is one hell of a bust for many. Need to get it south and get it to dig. An ULL over our fannies may be NB but pretty lame otherwise. I have a little better shot being further east than you, but likewise I need to see "more" than just a historic ULL....the placement is such via consensus that to me it would primary favor N&E of even me...as the low stalls and we get pummeling winds, backlash, and probably 2-4 or 3-6. The system is beginning to sniff better sampling sites now, so maybe this is the "run" where we see the big dog bark....otherwise we can all enjoy the ULL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 I have a little better shot being further east than you, but likewise I need to see "more" than just a historic ULL....the placement is such via consensus that to me it would primary favor N&E of even me...as the low stalls and we get pummeling winds, backlash, and probably 2-4 or 3-6. The system is beginning to sniff better sampling sites now, so maybe this is the "run" where we see the big dog bark....otherwise we can all enjoy the ULL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This PV anomaly trucking out of the Arctic is mainly an upper level feature, with very little disturbance in the low levels initially. We know we have a strong baroclinic zone setting up along the East Coast at the same time. The upper level PV anomaly will induce a cyclonic flow in the low levels. Cyclonic flow over a strong baroclinic zone initiates WAA on the east side, and CAA on the west side of the upper level anomaly. This develops cyclone formation in the low levels, which feeds back to the upper levels and strengthens in the upper disturbance. So you can see how for a time these two features will be in sync with each other and allow for the rapid cyclogenesis being modeled. Thank you! I mean that sincerely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Quick Question...I'm supposed to be taking my girlfriend from Boston to Newport Saturday morning for Valentines day, and then back on Sunday mid afternoon. What are the odds of this even being feasible at this point? Am I likely screwed? If things work out, you should be screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Biggest Euro Run of our lives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I love the football spiking going on in here already. Of course everything looks amazing right now, but it has only been one run of awesomeness. Let's get one more under our belts before start celebrating and declaring 30" snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 There has been more epic blizzards at H5 then we can count Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'll start getting excited when Albany begins to squawk. That's certainly not happening yet. SATURDAY...THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES AND ONCE AGAIN...IT LOOKS AS IFENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFER TO ANOTHER STORM SOUTHEAST OFLONG ISLAND. IF THE SECONDARY LOW FORMS MORE QUICKLY...STEADY SNOWCOULD IMPACT MUCH OF OUR REGION...BUT RIGHT NOW OUR THINKING IS THATANY STEADY SNOW WILL LIMITED TO ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITHLIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. EITHERWAY...IT WILL TURN WINDY ONCE AGAIN WITH ANOTHER INCREDIBLY FRIGIDAIRMASS BUILDING IN BY SUNDAY NIGHT Bed time now. I hope to wake up to see pages and pages added to this thread as to how all of SNE and eastern NY gets crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 If only we lived at 500mb.... Haha that's a classic line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 If things work out, you should be screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I have a little better shot being further east than you, but likewise I need to see "more" than just a historic ULL....the placement is such via consensus that to me it would primary favor N&E of even me...as the low stalls and we get pummeling winds, backlash, and probably 2-4 or 3-6. The system is beginning to sniff better sampling sites now, so maybe this is the "run" where we see the big dog bark....otherwise we can all enjoy the ULL Isn't consensus minus the gfs a good hit right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'll start getting excited when Albany begins to squawk. That's certainly not happening yet. SATURDAY...THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES AND ONCE AGAIN...IT LOOKS AS IF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFER TO ANOTHER STORM SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND. IF THE SECONDARY LOW FORMS MORE QUICKLY...STEADY SNOW COULD IMPACT MUCH OF OUR REGION...BUT RIGHT NOW OUR THINKING IS THAT ANY STEADY SNOW WILL LIMITED TO ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. EITHER WAY...IT WILL TURN WINDY ONCE AGAIN WITH ANOTHER INCREDIBLY FRIGID AIRMASS BUILDING IN BY SUNDAY NIGHT Bed time now. I hope to wake up to see pages and pages added to this thread as to how all of SNE and eastern NY gets crushed. "Steady snow will be limited to adjacent western New England..." Don't you live in adjacent western New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 If only we lived at 500mb.... Haha that's a classic line. I think I said that circa 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I love the football spiking going on in here already. Of course everything looks amazing right now, but it has only been one run of awesomeness. Let's get one more under our belts before start celebrating and declaring 30" snow amounts. you missed 0z and who spiked? We discuss model output in here, when do the crayon maps come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 "Steady snow will be limited to adjacent western New England..." Don't you live in adjacent western New England? "Steady snow" may only result in 1-2". lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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