40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 Ryan posted a video on FB seemingly favoring the GFS...not sure why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 i know Nogaps (now Navgem) used to be an awful model but it's performed fairly well this winter so far. It's a big hit for us similar to Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Ryan posted a video on FB seemingly favoring the GFS...not sure why. Probabilities were based on the Euro Ens mainly and focused on CT. Odds would be much better for a bigger event out toward BOS and especially the north shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Ryan posted a video on FB seemingly favoring the GFS...not sure why. Who is Ryan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Who is Ryan? He's CT Rain on here (Full name is Ryan Hanrahan, he's a meteorologist at NBC Connecticut). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 Probabilities were based on the Euro Ens mainly and focused on CT. Odds would be much better for a bigger event out toward BOS and especially the north shore. Ok. Thanks. I wasn't trying to ne a d*ck or anything....just wasn't clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 Probabilities were based on the Euro Ens mainly and focused on CT. Odds would be much better for a bigger event out toward BOS and especially the north shore. Who is Ryan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 He's CT Rain on here (Full name is Ryan Hanrahan, he's a meteorologist at NBC Connecticut). Ahh...No kiddin..I met him a year or 2 ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Ok. Thanks. I wasn't trying to ne a d*ck or anything....just wasn't clear. Yeah I'd say the odds of a really severe storm down this way are about 1 in 3... op Euro has it but only about 1 in 3 Euro Ens bring 0.50" liquid back toward I-91. Also, most of the GFS ensembles are on the "meh" side with the late bloomer scenario with the storm not really getting the trowal back this far southwest. A few inches... 3-6 and gusty winds is by far the more likely scenario IMBY I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Probabilities were based on the Euro Ens mainly and focused on CT. Odds would be much better for a bigger event out toward BOS and especially the north shore. I figured on as much. At first I was scratching my head, then I remembered the CT focus...not BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yeah I'd say the odds of a really severe storm down this way are about 1 in 3... op Euro has it but only about 1 in 3 Euro Ens bring 0.50" liquid back toward I-91. Also, most of the GFS ensembles are on the "meh" side with the late bloomer scenario with the storm not really getting the trowal back this far southwest. A few inches... 3-6 and gusty winds is by far the more likely scenario IMBY I think. I assume better north and east of Manchester; euro clown map looked about 12-18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Here is where modeling stands at 06z (12z in the case of the ECMWF) Sunday. 500 mb heights (yellow), 700 mb heights (white), and vorticity (shaded). You can see the GFS is already the northern outlier in 500 mb low, in addition to the fact that the NAM and GGEM both have digging left to do before rounding the base of the trough. Next frame we lose the NAM, but the ECMWF and GGEM are both south of SNE with the 500 mb low, the GFS is NE off the tip of Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I assume better north and east of Manchester; euro clown map looked about 12-18 It had about 10-12 east and north of 91..and probably not done trending SW. GFS/GEFS have handled this very poorly from the get go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It had about 10-12 east and north of 91..and probably not done trending SW. GFS/GEFS have handled this very poorly from the get go Handled an event 4 days away very poorly huh? I like how you know this with absolute certainty already. Unless you are specifically talking about the shortwave over the Arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Handled an event 4 days away very poorly huh? I like how you know this with absolute certainty already. Unless you are specifically talking about the shortwave over the Arctic. He is...the most interesting man in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I actually DO think it trends a bit more SW which should bring areas down to NYC and even maybe to PHL into the game. NYC/PHL are the big wildcards but I think most of CT does quite well. The Euro will have to continue its direction but that's my thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I still think the GFS is too dry in EMA and SNH. Especially in the 12 hrs preceeding the 99hr chart. 700mb low orientation and lift look pretty good but the output is limited to a tenth or two. Meanwhile the model anomalously prints out an inch of liquid near Acadia National Park. It's almost as though it dumps the moisture instead of wrapping it SW. I wonder if the cold, dry air wrapping into the low structure is messing with the precip generation or at least the algorithm for it. The soundings are not quite out for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Handled an event 4 days away very poorly huh? I like how you know this with absolute certainty already. Unless you are specifically talking about the shortwave over the Arctic. Seeing as they/it had this OTS and now have it way north..yes ..I'd say they've handled it extremely poorly..and shouldn't be used/factored.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Seeing as they/it had this OTS and now have it way north..yes ..I'd say they've handled it extremely poorly..and shouldn't be used/factored..Other models also had it out to sea. Let's keep the conjecture to a minimum. The best reason to avoid the GFS right now is because it is an outlier. Not because it showed a seaward system earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 LOL, for fun look at the soundings. Seeing sub 500 heights is pretty awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Just looking quickly on my phone...but the 18z GEFS look to have a decent cluster of members that look more like other guidance than the OP run. There's still some northern members too though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 i know Nogaps (now Navgem) used to be an awful model but it's performed fairly well this winter so far. It's a big hit for us similar to Euro. A weenie question for those on the outside looking in--isn't the Nogaps frequently way east? Like I said, a weenie question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Just looking quickly on my phone...but the 18z GEFS look to have a decent cluster of members that look more like other guidance than the OP run. There's still some northern members too though. ECMWF EPS clustering is pretty tight given the range. Low locations are basically just model noise except for one out to lunch member that is halfway to the Azores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 A weenie question for those on the outside looking in--isn't the Nogaps frequently way east? Like I said, a weenie question. That was the big time bias when it was Nogaps but now the Navgem doesn't seem to be nearly as pronounced in that direction. It's a much better model than it was 2 years ago. It was one of the early latchers on of the 1/26-7/2015 blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 A weenie question for those on the outside looking in--isn't the Nogaps frequently way east? Like I said, a weenie question. Most of last year and all of this year I don't think it had that problem, but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The EURO did puke in the blizzard though in a similar Miller B set up. Just tossing that out there. It hasn't been it's usual self this season. Nothing similar at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 I wouldn't be stunned if the EURO shifts some toward the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Just looking quickly on my phone...but the 18z GEFS look to have a decent cluster of members that look more like other guidance than the OP run. There's still some northern members too though. Yeah nice look on these. OTHERMAP OPTIONS >>>>>NEXT HR PREV HR<<<<< RETURN LINKS E-WALL MREF E-WALL HOME Zoom In | Zoom Out | Normal Zoom In | Zoom Out | Normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Ensemble mean, as you can see above there's a few members that are basically total whiffs and screw the mean, but regardless, plenty to work with here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I think it's ok to discuss different models and solutions that aren't as favorable. I feel like when you mention something that isn't snowy, people come at you with "oh that's not the same situation" or "oh the GFS doesn't handle this or that well." There should not be pressure to only mention snowy scenarios and I feel like that is a problem. It's ok. Weather will do what weather does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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