ENYsnow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Unfortunately there doesn't appear to much of a coherent signal that we can track from now forward to see how models are verifying. Ideally, we would be able to compare something like the higher heights over Canada to tonight's 00z balloon launches. However, those higher heights moves out into the Atlantic and disappear. Seems like possibly higher heights over AK tomorrow night could be important to watch for a farther west track. Yeah at this point it's not a very useful tool but 48 hours from now we might gain some insight. The evolution of the height field across the northeast Pacific and western Canada will be more relevant and easier to track than whats going on across northern Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Exactly. It's bad enough when we've fot 3 or 4 of the same folks in and around BOS doing it.. Add in PF and it's just nauseating. It's affecting everyone here. Discuss all regions . Not just one What? I'm saying gimme gimme gimme? I just am saying like Will did it's natural to focus on Eastern Mass right now for societal issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 What? I'm saying gimme gimme gimme? I just am saying like Will did it's natural to focus on Eastern Mass right now for societal issues. Yeah true. But I feel like some are already getting too confident. I honestly think the risk is this trending more towards a Maine event and people are thinking it's an ern MA deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GFS looks like 12z, keeping the best stuff in ME. I'd still hit it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yeah true. But I feel like some are already getting too confident. I honestly think the risk is this trending more towards a Maine event and people are thinking it's an ern MA deal. cmon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 cmon Risk does not equal forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Risk does not equal forecast. GFS still likes maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 wonder if Ct can handle the refugees. I can probably take in a half dozen coeds from harvard if necessasry I'm building the cages and setting up the greased poles as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Take the complaining to banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yeah true. But I feel like some are already getting too confident. I honestly think the risk is this trending more towards a Maine event and people are thinking it's an ern MA deal. As weather weenies we are drawn to the highest impact of any event. I'm certainly not focused on if I get 1-3 or 3-7" or whatever. I'm more curious about watching the nightly news and seeing BOS just bending over to Mother Nature. Maybe Blizz finds it nauseating because we aren't discussing the next road closure on I-84, but honestly the whole country is watching Boston right now and how ridiculous can it get. It's like discussing a hurricane and having someone keep saying "talk about the outter bands, not just the eyewall". As weenies we are drawn to the core of the excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 GFS still likes maine GFS had a nuke Friday, EURO showed a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GFS looked almost identical to 12z...still remains the northern outlier in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Maybe we talk about BOS because we live here? I mean I love you but am not materially effected by what falls in Tolland. You're the same way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 As weather weenies we are drawn to the highest impact of any event. I'm certainly not focused on if I get 1-3 or 3-7" or whatever. I'm more curious about watching the nightly news and seeing BOS just bending over to Mother Nature. Maybe Blizz finds it nauseating because we aren't discussing the next road closure on I-84, but honestly the whole country is watching Boston right now and how ridiculous can it get. It's like discussing a hurricane and having someone keep saying "talk about the outter bands, not just the eyewall". As weenies we are drawn to the core of the excitement. I agree. It is what it is. Can't help mother nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GFS had a nuke Friday, EURO showed a whiff. yes, but GFS still shows that it likes maine, not saying it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Maybe we talk about BOS because we live here? I mean I love you but am not materially effected by what falls in Tolland. You're the same way. All posts now have to talk about every region, new mandate 18Z really clobbers maine, winds are impressive 60-80knots for Maine into NB and NS.. on the backside sunday night into Monday look brutal wind temps in single digits and strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 yes, but GFS still shows that it likes maine, not saying it's right. Think it still has a nice 5-10 for most though with more to the N/E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GFS had a nuke Friday, EURO showed a whiff. this is euros puppy no doubt, closed 5H are its primo. The GFS has a 980 and sw of that a 977, think it just got broke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 If anyone needs assistance with my offer please PM LOL You sure? web cam capture near Tolland LOL Well, the 18z GFS jackpots me over the next 33 hours. Rockin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Ya the GFS is definitely the least desirable solution for SNE among the available guidance. But, we all saw what the GFS did in this time frame with the Thursday system, and this is typically in the wheelhouse time range of the EURO, so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Ya the GFS is definitely the least desirable solution for SNE among the available guidance. But, we all saw what the GFS did in this time frame with the Thursday system, and this is typically in the wheelhouse time range of the EURO, so there's that. Any time you have an outlier, you need a good reason to side with it...otherwise you will tend to lean toward the rest of the model consensus. 00z suite will tell us a lot IMHO. I'll be surprised if the GFS doesn't dig the H5 trough a bit further south like the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 this is euros puppy no doubt, closed 5H are its primo. The GFS has a 980 and sw of that a 977, think it just got broke The EURO did puke in the blizzard though in a similar Miller B set up. Just tossing that out there. It hasn't been it's usual self this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GGEM in case it wasn't posted for the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The EURO did puke in the blizzard though in a similar Miller B set up. Just tossing that out there. It hasn't been it's usual self this season. Still a bit too early to micro-analyze this...but one major difference is the Euro isn't the outlier here like it was in the blizzard. The GFS is the outlier this time. But given we are still 84 hours out, we have another 24-36 hours to really iron out the model differences. Once we are inside 48h, we'd hope to be in pretty good agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GGEM in case it wasn't posted for the region Nice map. But we know that aint happening here in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The GFS has given us very little reason to trust it more than 72 hours out post-upgrade, particularly when it's an outlier, as it was on Monday for tomorrow's no-show storm. Amateur here but don't think what it's showing is realistic with the pattern this year, given the other models and given tomorrows system. Only thing that is making me wonder is the semi-consistency it has had today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 Harv really pimping this event, especially inside of I 495. Mentions blizzard conditions possible, but with the Scooter caveat that it could shift towards ME....but he is hedging toward big impact. Must be following EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 You sure? web cam capture near Tolland OMG.. Just look at all that snow-stealing going on in Tolland! Keep them the F out of Hartford County.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 this is euros puppy no doubt, closed 5H are its primo. The GFS has a 980 and sw of that a 977, think it just got broke My goal for tmw's system is just block the sun for the day, then get the hell outta dodge. I just want cloudy skies tmw....I'll be satisfied. I hate the sun being out all day...nauseating hearing my manager gloating over the profuse dripping emanating from the roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GGEM in case it wasn't posted for the region I believe this includes some of the Tues/Wed next week snowfall as well as this weekend's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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