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Super Snow Sunday 2/15-Party Like it's 1717


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Unfortunately there doesn't appear to much of a coherent signal that we can track from now forward to see how models are verifying. Ideally, we would be able to compare something like the higher heights over Canada to tonight's 00z balloon launches. However, those higher heights moves out into the Atlantic and disappear.

 

Seems like possibly higher heights over AK tomorrow night could be important to watch for a farther west track.

 

Yeah at this point it's not a very useful tool but 48 hours from now we might gain some insight. The evolution of the height field across the northeast Pacific and western Canada will be more relevant and easier to track than whats going on across northern Quebec.

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Exactly. It's bad enough when we've fot 3 or 4 of the same folks in and around BOS doing it.. Add in PF and it's just nauseating. It's affecting everyone here. Discuss all regions . Not just one

What? I'm saying gimme gimme gimme?

I just am saying like Will did it's natural to focus on Eastern Mass right now for societal issues.

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What? I'm saying gimme gimme gimme?

I just am saying like Will did it's natural to focus on Eastern Mass right now for societal issues.

 

Yeah true. But I feel like some are already getting too confident. I honestly think the risk is this trending more towards a Maine event and people are thinking it's an ern MA deal.

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Yeah true. But I feel like some are already getting too confident. I honestly think the risk is this trending more towards a Maine event and people are thinking it's an ern MA deal.

As weather weenies we are drawn to the highest impact of any event. I'm certainly not focused on if I get 1-3 or 3-7" or whatever. I'm more curious about watching the nightly news and seeing BOS just bending over to Mother Nature.

Maybe Blizz finds it nauseating because we aren't discussing the next road closure on I-84, but honestly the whole country is watching Boston right now and how ridiculous can it get.

It's like discussing a hurricane and having someone keep saying "talk about the outter bands, not just the eyewall". As weenies we are drawn to the core of the excitement.

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As weather weenies we are drawn to the highest impact of any event. I'm certainly not focused on if I get 1-3 or 3-7" or whatever. I'm more curious about watching the nightly news and seeing BOS just bending over to Mother Nature.

Maybe Blizz finds it nauseating because we aren't discussing the next road closure on I-84, but honestly the whole country is watching Boston right now and how ridiculous can it get.

It's like discussing a hurricane and having someone keep saying "talk about the outter bands, not just the eyewall". As weenies we are drawn to the core of the excitement.

 

:lol:

 

I agree. It is what it is. Can't help mother nature. 

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Maybe we talk about BOS because we live here?  I mean I love you but am not materially effected by what falls in Tolland.  You're the same way.

All posts now have to talk about every region, new mandate

 

18Z really clobbers maine, winds are impressive 60-80knots for Maine into NB and NS.. on the backside sunday night into Monday look brutal wind temps in single digits and strong winds.

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Ya the GFS is definitely the least desirable solution for SNE among the available guidance. But, we all saw what the GFS did in this time frame with the Thursday system, and this is typically in the wheelhouse time range of the EURO, so there's that.

 

 

Any time you have an outlier, you need a good reason to side with it...otherwise you will tend to lean toward the rest of the model consensus.

 

00z suite will tell us a lot IMHO. I'll be surprised if the GFS doesn't dig the H5 trough a bit further south like the other guidance.

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The EURO did puke in the blizzard though in a similar Miller B set up. Just tossing that out there. It hasn't been it's usual self this season.

 

 

Still a bit too early to micro-analyze this...but one major difference is the Euro isn't the outlier here like it was in the blizzard. The GFS is the outlier this time.

 

But given we are still 84 hours out, we have another 24-36 hours to really iron out the model differences. Once we are inside 48h, we'd hope to be in pretty good agreement.

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The GFS has given us very little reason to trust it more than 72 hours out post-upgrade, particularly when it's an outlier, as it was on Monday for tomorrow's no-show storm. Amateur here but don't think what it's showing is realistic with the pattern this year, given the other models and given tomorrows system. Only thing that is making me wonder is the semi-consistency it has had today. 

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this is euros puppy no doubt, closed 5H are its primo. The GFS has a 980 and sw of that a 977, think it just got broke

My goal for tmw's system is just block the sun for the day, then get the hell outta dodge.

 

I just want cloudy skies tmw....I'll be satisfied.

 

I hate the sun being out all day...nauseating hearing my manager gloating over the profuse dripping emanating from the roof.

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