CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 FWIW the 12z GGEM ensembles look like the GEFS, but a bit further south and southwest with QPF and MSLP at hr 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Happiness is coming back to the board after an hour and see 10+ new pages. You know the Euro is da bomb and have fun as the anticipation builds. Let's lock 12Z Euro please Ah, but we know that we cannot lock a 96hr look. It's Wednesday. This doesn't arrive -- in theory -- until Saturday night. 4 days out, there will be wiggles. Right now the main takeaway is that the consensus has shifted toward and earlier "pop" and as a result there is a greater likelihood of impact -- perhaps significant -- for portions of New England, greatest on the eastern edges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 We really need about 2 more runs to start getting very high confidence. The storm is commencing around the 84 hour mark, so we are definitely not in marginal clown range or anything...but it is usually that 84-96 range where we see the models...in particular the Euro..."make their move"...so tonight's runs will be especially important. We've already seen 2 "moves" in a row at 00z and now 12z, so hopefully it's the models beginning to tip their hand, and not some burp or start of an even greater move that takes us out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yeah, I mean, there's no snowfall on the images I look at, but QPF is fairly close. That algorithm tends to weenie out a bit on the ratios, but ORH eastward is over 1.00" of QPF I see 1.44" @ TAN fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 all jokes aside what will Boston seriously do if we end up with another foot and a half of snow. If the forecast verified, probably an extensive travel ban, and students in school til like July, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spoons56 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 If the forecast verified, probably an extensive travel ban, and students in school til like July, lol I think most schools have February vacation next week, so that helps. Roof collapses and impassable side roads aplenty incoming...potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 LOL, 12"/hour rates are hard to come by, but 6"/hour are more attainable. Hundred mph winds are hard too. But 75-85mph are not. With a sub 975mb benchmark tracking storm, a foot and a half would be the least of your worries. x21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Cape Cod has had about 36.5" of snow this winter and about 36" all in the last three weeks. So we can handle another blizzard as there is probably about 10" left on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Man, if that pans out, the ridiculously far-fetched idea of someone pulling 100" in 30 days suddenly seems quite obtainable…Wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 all jokes aside what will Boston seriously do if we end up with another foot and a half of snow. I think all the weight of the snow id going to fracture the Earths crust East of the CT River and we're all going to fall into the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 x2121 /hr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I think all the weight of the snow id going to fracture the Earths crust East of the CT River and we're all going to fall into the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Its ok call me a weenie, I just got the Blizzard of 2015 right. And I am going to get this one right once again. Take out the western outliers and eastern outliers and you get the middle of the road which is a benchmark track towards 41n: 69.90w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Man, if that pans out, the ridiculously far-fetched idea of someone pulling 100" in 30 days suddenly seems quite obtainable…Wow... ORH is at 78.2" since 1/24...so they need 21.8" by February 24th to get 100" in a month...if this storm can give them 15, then it looks really attainable. There are probably some spots on the interior south shore over 80" in that same time period...so they are even closer. But doing it at a first order site would be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 A bowling ball Manitoba mauler H5 low is very dangerous when it comes to East Coast Snowstorm productions. Blizzard of 2005 comes to mind. Same track, less moisture until it hits the coast. Winds near 85mph, and rates near 4-6"/hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HullMA Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 RIP coastal communities within 20-30 miles of boston....If there is serious flooding involved this will be a tough pill to swallow.I am starting to get scared...For less educated/aware people. What happens when we get the pounding rain and 35-40f SE MA is oh so familiar with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 If anyone can look at 925-850-700 temps on the euro with that storm..it's like the mother of all TROWALS pulling west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevin1927 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Harvey honking: Harvey Leonard @HarveyWCVB · 39m 39 minutes ago Big concern for Sat Nt/Sun. Heavy snow, strong wind, bitter cold potential #wcvb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 If anyone can look at 925-850-700 temps on the euro with that storm..it's like the mother of all TROWALS pulling west. Can you translate for idiots like myself please? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Can you translate for idiots like myself please? lol Well when you have a well established TROWAL (Trough Of Warm Air Aloft) it's an indicator of strong Warm air advection and moisture advection which is a key ingredient. into storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Got it...thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Scott can correct me If I am wrong, but a TROWAL is a warm layer aloft that comes off the storm into the northwest part of the storm and acts like a front for heavier snowfall production due to the cold layer underneath. I think I am little off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Wow you guys in eastern New England have been a snow magnet these last couple weeks congrats! I actually hope Boston breaks their season snow record and this is coming from a New Yorker lol. Hopefully NYC gets hit good this storm along with you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 So I am half right I guess. Thanks for clarifying Scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I think we all know that the 12z CMC is close to the EURO as well, its just slightly southeast with the heaviest snow band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HullMA Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Cool little read. TEMPERATURE AND TROWAL Richard Pollman, Lead Meteorologist at the National Weather Service Office in Detroit says strong convection is the basic building block for frontogenesis forcing. “You might have a trough of warm air aloft within and stacked occluded system combining with TROugh of Warm air ALoft (TROWAL). All of these things work together to create instability.” Pollman also notes that it is important to consider Conditional Symmetric Instability where the movement of the parcel slanted, rather than straight up.“Storms occluding on top of you are in the deepening phase, causing a deeper storm than one that occludes to the left of you,” Pollman says. His forecasting team looks for warm or occluded fronts as the first building block for frontal forcing. He says the extreme forcing occurs because the convergence and lift is over a concentrated area. “Lifting the moist, unstable air with added lift from convection helps the parcel to precipitate out,” he adds.TROWAL is defined by Professor James T. Moore of the Cooperative Institute for Precipitation Systems at St. Louis University as a 3D sloping intersection of the upper cold front portion of the warm occlusion with the warm frontal zone. It is a wedge of warm air on top of cold air. He points to the exact location of TROWAL is usually along the ridge of high Theta-e values. It is the cyclonic portion of the warm conveyor belt that wraps around to the NW of the cyclone.Pollman says, “TROWAL is between 700- 500 mb level. Frontal forcing is usually stretched from the surface up through to the 500 mb level, but most commonly found around 850 mb. It is a ridge of theta e extending into the cold sector of the storm. You can find it by looking at the 500-700 mb plan view of theta e. Trowel does enhance the lift, like summertime CAPE. And often, the TROWAL and forcing is accelerated within this winter instability. He says it is hard to forecast. “Usually there are three or four f-gen bands, but only a couple of them really come active.”This banding can result in a blown forecast. Meteorologists may be able to forecast the large scale synoptic event, but locating the meso bands is more difficult until the storm is about two hours away. Weather balloon measurements may miss the entire event. This is another cause for missing the banding effect. Since balloons are released only every 12 hours, the banding event could have occurred in the middle of the launchings and go undetected until it shows up on radar. Meteorologists may have forecasted two to three inches of accumulation, when the stationary frontal forcing caused over six inches to fall. Pollman says there isn’t one specific thing that can be done to accurately predict where the heaviest snow fall will be. He says, “ You have to keep monitoring them on radar hour by hour.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Wow, the H5 low gets down to 492dm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Well when you have a well established TROWAL (Trough Of Warm Air Aloft) it's an indicator of strong Warm air advection and moisture advection which is a key ingredient. into storm. is this what helps pull the precip back further west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 is this what helps pull the precip back further west? Yes...it is essentially an important part of a developing CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 is this what helps pull the precip back further west? Well I would say you want one that is established. It's also similar to what a CCB is..a conveyor belt of moisture that rides up and up along a sloped thermal surfaces (known as potential temp or theta surfaces). Every storm has one, but this was well defined. Anyways, it's a detail not to be weenie'd out on 4 days out...was just noting a very cool thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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