Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 But holy sh*t is that an explosive looking s/w. Good God. with our miss being the 50/50 and Heights pumping out west with that 1050 high nosing in I would have thought this would produce a sharper trough, time to watch this if not well the pipeline remains loaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 Yeah western ridging would be "upstream ridging"...downstream ridging is the heights increasing out in front of the shortwave...that is how you tuck it in closer. I glossed right over that. Just saw "ridging", and assumed upstream. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 If someone put a gun to the crotch of my snowpants, I think this one crushes us, and places the exclamation point on this epic run. This is the one that teleconnector convergence has been flagging for at least a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Both events have problems with the downstream ridging...Sunday's would be amazingly prolific (talking like Jan 2005-esque) if we had good downstream ridging, but we don't. Not sure it has the room to recover it, but it won't be due to a lack of shortwave energy...that thing is incredibly strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Our friend in Nova Scotia should be chucking them. I'll wait until it shows this solution 24hrs out. We all know how things can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 If someone put a gun to the crotch of my snowpants, I think this one crushes us, and places the exclamation point on this epic run. This is the one that teleconnector convergence has been flagging for at least a month. I disagree based on what I've seen from yesterday afternoon through midday today. On the point of ridging, it seems to be out of rhythm for us in the near future. The system after Sunday's may see enough of a wrinkle ahead of it to get cranking though. There's wiggle room, but we have to see that feature improve in order to gain confidence for Sunday. It's pretty clear Thurs-Fri is limited/cooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Slightly OT ... we are focused on the nearer term potential, then the Sun-Mon deal ... One thing I am noticing is that the pattern doesn't break after that. There are ample opportunities, as unbelievable as that may be. Interesting... Can you imagine if we capped this incredible thing off with one of those 1888 munchy Marchies...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 I disagree based on what I've seen from yesterday afternoon through midday today. On the point of ridging, it seems to be out of rhythm for us in the near future. The system after Sunday's may see enough of a wrinkle ahead of it to get cranking though. There's wiggle room, but we have to see that feature improve in order to gain confidence for Sunday. It's pretty clear Thurs-Fri is limited/cooked. I know. I'm not basing it off anything.....just a feeling. Everything else screams miss, but.....I have nothing on the line, so what the hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I know. I'm not basing it off anything.....just a feeling. Everything else screams miss, but.....I have nothing on the line, so what the hell. Hey, if the Euro comes in with an OP hit at 12z and its ensemble gives that legs, consider me suckered right back in. But if you put a gun to MY crotch -- and you'd better not -- I think current guidance isn't enough to get me to say there'll be a hit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Both events have problems with the downstream ridging...Sunday's would be amazingly prolific (talking like Jan 2005-esque) if we had good downstream ridging, but we don't. Not sure it has the room to recover it, but it won't be due to a lack of shortwave energy...that thing is incredibly strong. NCEP made the salient point this morning that it's majority is of arctic origin, relaying over the arctic ocean from Siberia... I do think there is some chance that the heights in the west Atlantic are not responding enough to the forcing as these systems hit the bottom of the trough. Ex, prior to the blizzard, which was also bumped E for a while, this was also evidence inside of 72 hours, when the isopleths began "bending" more anticyclonic S of Nova Scotia. Another way to look at this is what I was just discussing in the other thread. The flow seems too stretched in having an anchored western ridge axis... It may be hard to get the imagination around a correction of this nature, but this could all be bumped back west for that alone, and it would really only take what? 2 ... 3 deg of longitude -- It would be nice to have a dependable bomb on the charts at all times, that only seems to get stronger and more bombier is new histrionic model runs come out and elevate the fever pitch to even more terrifying elevations of dystopian winter horror. Unfortunatley, that type of certitude pretty much never happens. Not you per se - just sayin' I just don't think it is wise given the immense impact potential upon a demography that is already highly stressed by 60" in 13 days with limited melting, for people to throw hand and drop interest/vigil. The issue is moving past one of losing entertainment, into the realm of 'my roof', my ability to get to the emergency room if I need to... etc etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 NCEP made the salient point this morning that it's majority is of arctic origin, relaying over the arctic ocean from Siberia... I do think there is some chance that the heights in the west Atlantic are not responding enough to the forcing as these systems hit the bottom of the trough. Ex, prior to the blizzard, which was also bumped E for a while, this was also evidence inside of 72 hours, when the isopleths began "bending" more anticyclonic S of Nova Scotia. Another way to look at this is what I was just discussing in the other thread. The flow seems too stretched in having an anchored western ridge axis... It may be hard to get the imagination around a correction of this nature, but this could all be bumped back west for that alone, and it would really only take what? 2 ... 3 deg of longitude -- It would be nice to have a dependable bomb on the charts at all times, that only seems to get stronger and more bombier is new histrionic model runs come out and elevate the fever pitch to even more terrifying elevations of dystopian winter horror. Unfortunatley, that type of certitude pretty much never happens. Not you per se - just sayin' I just don't think it is wise given the immense impact potential upon a demography that is already highly stressed by 60" in 13 days with limited melting, for people to throw hand and drop interest/vigil. The issue is moving past one of losing entertainment, into the realm of 'my roof', my ability to get to the emergency room if I need to... etc etc. What he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Yeah western ridging would be "upstream ridging"...downstream ridging is the heights increasing out in front of the shortwave...that is how you tuck it in closer. Is the flattening of the top of the ridge (upstream ridging) between 0z sat and 12z Saturday not a reason this is not modeled to crush us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Is the flattening of the top of the ridge (upstream ridging) between 0z sat and 12z Saturday not a reason this is not modeled to crush us? It would help if the ridge was higher...it's never one variable. But we deifnitely have a downstream ridging problem. A better upstream ridge would probably slow this system a bit and let it dive southward at a further west longitude which would then help with the downstream ridging issue. Of course, a flatter look to our east with the Friday system would also help. A lot of these things are tied together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 GGEM is a better hit...probably high end advisory for many...and warning snows for southeastern areas...Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 It would help if the ridge was higher...it's never one variable. But we deifnitely have a downstream ridging problem. A better upstream ridge would probably slow this system a bit and let it dive southward at a further west longitude which would then help with the downstream ridging issue. Of course, a flatter look to our east with the Friday system would also help. A lot of these things are tied together. Thanks, It was just something I noticed that stood out how it just seemed like a lot of our problems would be solved if that ridge orientation at 0z sat was maintained as the SW starts diving into the OH/MISS valley. Is there any hope Will of improving THAT (western ridge) feature or is that flattening baked into the cake. I really have no idea how well a SW impacting that western ridge is typically modeled or if there is any legit hope to change that for the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Thanks, It was just something I noticed that stood out how it just seemed like a lot of our problems would be solved if that ridge orientation at 0z sat was maintained as the SW starts diving into the OH/MISS valley. Is there any hope will of improving THAT feature or is that baked into the cake. Your earlier post was a good pick up. Nice work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 So Sunday on or off the table for Central Mass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 So Sunday on or off the table for Central Mass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 So Sunday on or off the table for Central Mass? It's on the prep cooks table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I swear do people even look at a model or read before posting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I guess I'm lost on this one---meaning I don't understand it. Models included, conversation included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I guess I'm lost on this one. Someone just started a thread for this...and it's 4.5-5 days out. Asking whether it is on or off the table already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 We will escape biblical sbows it appears both times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 We will escape biblical sbows it appears both times I think it's a too early to call Sunday. It's five days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 We will escape biblical sbows it appears both times if this is true, then now what the hell are we suppose to do with ourselves, if we have to come off this "snow high" and yes I know we have plenty of time to improve things, I just hope they don't trend too far in the other direction beyond the point of any likely correction back. I'd like to see the Euro just keep things as is for the next couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Yeah one model 5 days out won't really sway me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 After yesterday he said both would be huge hits..ebb and flow with models..bob and weave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 After yesterday he said both would be huge hits..ebb and flow with models..bob and weave Ying and Yang? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I guess I'm lost on this one---meaning I don't understand it. Models included, conversation included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Damn it. We need to bankrupt a few more western ski resorts. Pickles was all over this last night, and no one agreed. Pickles had no reference to downstream heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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