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Super Snow Sunday 2/15-Party Like it's 1717


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Amazes me the way minor events have led into major week after week.

 

It's the pattern we have gotten stuck in.  Major storm every Sun-Tues, minor storm every Thur-Fri.  Been like that for 3 weeks now.  I have seen this type of pattern happen before. 

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Not a met, but based on watching this stuff for 15+ years, I'd wait for Thursday to get out of here before sounding too many alarms here. Credited?

 

Plenty of wiggle room left between now and showtime.

 

That said, seeing this from the Euro certainly increases confidence of significant impact to eastern New England from the Sunday system.

 

If the guidance shows some run-to-run consistency hereafter -- through 00z Friday at least -- you can begin dallying with panic.

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The faster Thursday gets out of the way, the better. This has been said for awhile now. The downstream ridging across the Atlantic looked a lot better this run as it sped Thursday up a bunch. Hopefully by tomorrow it's going the speed of light so we can get this thing to get captured around ACK/CC at sub 975mb. 

I agree.  I know others have said that That Thurs. storm doesnt affect this storm,  but you need not look any further than raising the heights out front of this bad boy

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Gentlemen, please keep the hyperbole/sarcasm factor down if you can. Some of us have trouble differentiating realistic from fantasy. I am pretty sure a foot an hour is impossible and that 6" an hour is unlikely. If this storm can slam Philadelphia while we are in the brunt of it, it seems pretty amazing. It sounds like a real true to life blizzard is developing.

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No, but that was modeled to be a fast mover initially as well

 

 

Not this fast...it was always at least a 24h storm. It lingered for 30-36.

 

This one has a chance to be very good, but I wouldn't expect a 36 hour storm right now. The flow is moving along.

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Before anyway allows this to blow up their  mood to equal proportions... 

 

You may want to play it conservative until there is more consistency both native to the Euro, but including other guidance. This is just another in a myriad of solutions we've seen over the past couple of days; it just so happens this one catches lightning in a bottle.  You throw enough darts at a dart board blind-folded or not and you'll poke a bull's eye at some point or another.

 

Granted 'as is' this is heavily trended toward a major impact.   We did mentioned in the earlier coastal threat thread when that one appeared still on the table, 'ideally, to get the Sun-Mon done we didn't/don't want the Thur deal to stick around.' Seems with the subtle acceleration of the lead event ... perhaps this is crossing back over a threshold in physical plausibility - if you will - in that we're getting the wave spacing back enough to pull this off.

 

Two days ago the late Thur system was dominant and Sun was stretch given to the complexity of wave-spacing arguments. What we've managed to do after certain brow rubbing and consertnation is switch positions for all intense and purpose -- tho I would argue the Sun would be comparatively a greater impact. ... I just know that the flow is very active after that... A lot of guidance want to bring some kind of large event continental style, from the MV-lower Lakes-OV/MA/NE regions already at D6/7!! If so, now we are in a situation where Sun starts getting challenged if we are not careful.   

 

I think keeping your minds as cool customers is probably warranted here more so than normal.  

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Not this fast...it was always at least a 24h storm. It lingered for 30-36.

 

This one has a chance to be very good, but I wouldn't expect a 36 hour storm right now. The flow is moving along.

 

We just need it to hang around long enough to tug things down in advance of the Tuesday threat so that we stay all snow for that one, obvi.

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