klw Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Any concerns that with high winds and very cold temps that the snow growth will be poor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 No sarcasm needed. This is an area where I am still learning. It looks like extreme cold with the possibility of serious snow... but what are the realistic ratios in a case like this? What are the realistic snowfall totals if this verifies? It all depends on storm track for snow and where the lift is located for ratios. I haven't looked at BUFKIT, but it probably is greater than 10:1 given how cold it is. If the lift is above 700mb where it's very cold and below -18C or so..ratios may be a bit lower. Ideally you want a layer that is saturated and has strong lift in the -12C to -18C region for temps. You can also get good ratios as warm as -8C because the salt nuclei from our proximity to the Atlantic acts to initialize ice nucleation at temps normally not ideal for dendrite production. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Thanks for expounding there. Trend seems to be heading in a good direction with the 12z babies so far. Really interested to see where the Euro throws its chips at 1. Ya I think a lot of people are going to be repeatedly hitting the refresh button lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I would be surprised if the Euro didn't trend better looking. It already was going that direction at 00z. I'm not sure we will ever get a full blown ideal coastal with all the conveyor belts humming at maximum efficiency in this one due to the max baroclinic zone situated E of the best upper level support, but the potential is to still trend this one into a pretty high impact event with solid warning criteria snows...jackpots and localized enhancement can be figured out at a later time of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Video conference and I'm running it while the euro rolls out. How do I pull this one off.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Video conference and I'm running it while the euro rolls out. How do I pull this one off.... double screens .. I have 3 screens going at work.. 2 for work and 1 for model pages and amwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It all depends on storm track for snow and where the lift is located for ratios. I haven't looked at BUFKIT, but it probably is greater than 10:1 given how cold it is. If the lift is above 700mb where it's very cold and below -18C or so..ratios may be a bit lower. Ideally you want a layer that is saturated and has strong lift in the -12C to -18C region for temps. You can also get good ratios as warm as -8C because the salt nuclei from our proximity to the Atlantic acts to initialize ice nucleation at temps normally not ideal for dendrite production. Thank you, I can actually get this, though I'm a little hazy on areas of best lift. Usually that gets discussed when the storm is (real) and closer. I will look at BUFKIT and do the extrapolations (simple math). What get's confusing around this place is statements about it being great or lousy for whomever and often not knowing where they are. I don't want to ask IMBY questions (especially this far out when it is still borderline fantasy) but like having some geographical sense of what will be happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 Video conference and I'm running it while the euro rolls out. How do I pull this one off.... I agree...EURO probably looks better. Nothing epic, but nice event seems in route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Video conference and I'm running it while the euro rolls out. How do I pull this one off.... Tell the other members they are idiots and to f off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 double screens .. I have 3 screens going at work.. 2 for work and 1 for model pages and amwx Man, I thought I was sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Mixing isn't an issue which is insane to say. Not even out here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I like the subtle trends to a more impactful event instead of the wild swings. I fully expect the euro to keep ticking better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Not even out here? according to gynx you might be blown off the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 drop dry ice in warm water, see what happens. May not be your classic CCb stalled out system but for a while peeps are going to be rocking and rolling. good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Probably 80:1. lolz Sounds legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I've only seen two model types from 12z of the less dependable variety, the GGEM and the NAVGEM, and both are suffering convective noise... These cold heights and thicknesses advecting seaward are setting up a powder keg of instability from the Del Marva to ~ 100 miles E of CC, and that zone is so ripe for detonation that the deep layer mechanics touch it off way way before the best forcing ever gets there. That's why we are seeing -- relative to those solutions -- that weird dual low structure at the surface, with the westward low seemingly the western end of a norlun structure. It think one of the other low is likely to become dominant ...less dumb-bell structure. I see some vestiges of this type of complex processing in last night's other guidance types, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 2 bumps in a row on qpf from 0z to 6z to 12z for kcon up to around .5" from nearly nothing at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Tell the other members they are idiots and to f off? Dude, what is your issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Not even out here? I think you would like this Blair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 drop dry ice in warm water, see what happens. May not be your classic CCb stalled out system but for a while peeps are going to be rocking and rolling. good stuff I did, On stage for Blue Oyster Cult back in the 70'a Can you say fog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Probably 80:1. LOL. I think GC will need that. Then next week's system..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 2 bumps in a row on qpf from 0z to 6z to 12z for kcon up to around .5" from nearly nothing at 0z Referencing "QPF" in the Sunday event thread is hereafter completely banned. Quick reminder on banned terms: Banned in any thread: tepid jackpot lollis Connecticut Banned in this thread: QPF mix Schenectady departure Please PM me if seeking safe alternatives so as to avoid incident. --- Management Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I have a trip to Jackson, NH Sunday morning, up near Carter Notch. Oh boy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Video conference and I'm running it while the euro rolls out. How do I pull this one off....Pull a plug and apologize that you'll have to do a telephone conference call instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 according to gynx you might be blown off the map Wind is a given out here. Usually with the SL so close or overhead, we getting mixing issues. Warm ocean temps all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Referencing "QPF" in the Sunday event thread is hereafter completely banned. Quick reminder on banned terms: Banned in any thread: tepid jackpot lollis Connecticut Banned in this thread: QPF mix Schenectady departure Please PM me if seeking safe alternatives so as to avoid incident. --- Management Haha, well done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Referencing "QPF" in the Sunday event thread is hereafter completely banned. Quick reminder on banned terms: Banned in any thread: tepid jackpot lollis Connecticut tick circle jerks Banned in this thread: QPF mix Schenectady departure Please PM me if seeking safe alternatives so as to avoid incident. --- Management I added a couple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Alright enough with the CJs and jackpot fetishes. Hopefully we can all cash in..including CC and out in western CT. Here's to hoping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Dude, what is your issue? It was a joke based on his remarks to me earlier..... not serious.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I think you would like this Blair Looks close unless I'm reading that wrong. Not great with bufkits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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