eduggs Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 4:13 AM, N. OF PIKE said: Yup bout 40 miles or so on 7H and 5H low tracks.....(as it traverses SNE's longitude) The trajectory before it gets to this latitude is important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Note the pocket of low instability getting curled NW into BOS harbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 4:28 AM, N. OF PIKE said: Ya , Euro just grazed you lolqpf is always btr on outter edge than modeled. He'd be fine on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 4:27 AM, weathafella said: I think euro would be way better for you. On 2/12/2015 at 4:28 AM, ORH_wxman said: Euro was better for you. On 2/12/2015 at 4:28 AM, N. OF PIKE said: Ya , Euro just grazed you lol lol my bad...based on the discussion it seemed like it was primarily a Boston / SE Mass focus area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 4:28 AM, eduggs said: I did not see much of a tick with the upper level low positioning in its approach during the timeframe when it could significantly influence the outcome. After hrs 81 or 84 or so it does not really matter where the ULL goes because the SLP has already pulled NE. Both the 0z and 18z GFS tracked the ULL through NYS. Other guidance was further south. there was a huge difference in the QPF field this run. The H5 low was further south than 18z run and H7 low was as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 4:25 AM, CoastalWx said: That's some insane low level instability and lift on the GFS. Actually brings -LIs close to the MA coast. GFS cross-section you can actually see the theta-e lines fold over in the mid levels, from Barnstable to Lowell basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 CMC, anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 4:32 AM, OceanStWx said: GFS cross-section you can actually see the theta-e lines fold over in the mid levels, from Barnstable to Lowell basically. What does that overall in a storm? Higher instability? Lightning potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 4:32 AM, OceanStWx said: GFS cross-section you can actually see the theta-e lines fold over in the mid levels, from Barnstable to Lowell basically.Translation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 4:30 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: qpf is always btr on outter edge than modeled. He'd be fine on euro Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 4:30 AM, jamesnichols89 said: there was a huge difference in the QPF field this run. The H5 low was further south than 18z run and H7 low was as well. I do not agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 4:32 AM, 78Blizzard said: CMC, anyone? Running, out to hour 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 4:32 AM, jamesnichols89 said: What does that overall in a storm? Higher instability? Lightning potential? That is an area of potential instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 4:34 AM, eduggs said: I do not agree. How can you not see that, while the tick isn't considered extreme, it is still a tick to the south. Look at the difference in the QPF fields between the 18z run and the 00z run GFS. It is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 4:34 AM, SR Airglow said: Running, out to hour 30. 45 now. Not sure I can stay awake... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 4:33 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Translation? Instability from such strong low level WAA off the water vs how cold it is aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 4:33 AM, eduggs said: Huh?The QPF is often cut back on the nw periphery compared to what mid levels would dictate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 H5 low looks a bit better consolidated this run on the GGEM...maybe it won;t be quite so inverted trough-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I usually use the tropical tidbits site for analyzing the models-specifically the ECMWF. Is there another one you guys find more preferable? Seems as though some of you get the updated panels a little more quickly than I do on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 CMC through hour 57 looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I use instantweathermaps.com. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Still a bit inverted torugh look on GGEM but big hit...not as inverted trough as 12z which is good. I'd still like to see the H5 low be a bit more rounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 4:38 AM, jamesnichols89 said: I use instantweathermaps.com. Thanks so much, James! I'll certainly check out that site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Still the inv finger..actually a bit south on the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 4:37 AM, ncforecaster89 said: I usually use the tropical tidbits site for analyzing the models-specifically the ECMWF. Is there another one you guys find more preferable? Seems as though some of you get the updated panels a little more quickly than I do on there. instantweathermaps.com is what I use to get the GFS and NAM quickly, and I use weatherbell(It's $20 a month, but well worth it IMO) for the other models(including the Euro) and for more detailed analysis of the GFS/NAM because their graphics are much better and you can get zoomed in views which are critical for details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 CMC to hour 75 shows a huge shift southeastward between 57 and 75 hours across Lake Erie into the central NJ region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 4:32 AM, OceanStWx said: GFS cross-section you can actually see the theta-e lines fold over in the mid levels, from Barnstable to Lowell basically.get my arse busted by Ray,it's all good though, but 498 heights, yea that's a powder keg when the big pond gets tapped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 4:39 AM, ORH_wxman said: Still a bit inverted torugh look on GGEM but big hit...not as inverted trough as 12z which is good. I'd still like to see the H5 low be a bit more rounded. Yeah not bad. I still don't buy that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 4:39 AM, ORH_wxman said: Still a bit inverted torugh look on GGEM but big hit...not as inverted trough as 12z which is good. I'd still like to see the H5 low be a bit more rounded. 78hr looks like 992 around bm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I use the NCEP site for the GFS/NAM/SREFs and HIRES NAM as well as the other HIRES models NMM and ARW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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