CT Rain Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 12:19 AM, Damage In Tolland said: What about when the GFS hedges twds all other guidance as all other guidance moves Sw? So when that happens we can ramp up the forecast. We mentioned the potential for a significant storm, said Boston area was favored, and at the very least we should expect a couple inches of snow and very gusty winds. I really don't understand what you want us to do?base everything on the most extreme op run when more than half of its ensemble members are not as amped and favor areas farther north? How about the op euro itself that only has 0.4" for BDL bc the TROWAL struggles to reach back this far? You are easily one of the most aggravating posters on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Can anyone here verify the claim on here that, as progged by the GFS, the ull would be the deepest since 1966? http://www.wsi.com/blog/aviation/another-blockbuster-in-the-cards-for-the-northeast/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 12:32 AM, Ginxy said: Last I heard he said two misses, wonder if that changed. Out of the 3 over the next 10 days, You knew at least one was going to produce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 12:37 AM, weathercoins said: Can anyone here verify the claim on here that, as progged by the GFS, the ull would be the deepest since 1966? http://www.wsi.com/blog/aviation/another-blockbuster-in-the-cards-for-the-northeast/ If WSI says it then yes, again why my laptop is pinned to the ceiling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 12:36 AM, CT Rain said: So when that happens we can ramp up the forecast. We mentioned the potential for a significant storm, said Boston area was favored, and at the very least we should expect a couple inches of snow and very gusty winds. I really don't understand what you want us to do?base everything on the most extreme op run when more than half of its ensemble members are not as amped and favor areas farther north? How about the op euro itself that only has 0.4" for BDL bc the TROWAL struggles to reach back this far? You are easily one of the most aggravating posters on this board. Im sorry you are so easily bothered. Perhaps get some thicker skin. It's a weather board and we are discussing possible outcomes. I'm of the opinion the Euro and it's ensembles as well as Ukie, ggem and Cmc ens are more correct on reasons we mentioned earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 What was the Phil into the troposphere at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 12:37 AM, weathercoins said: Can anyone here verify the claim on here that, as progged by the GFS, the ull would be the deepest since 1966? http://www.wsi.com/blog/aviation/another-blockbuster-in-the-cards-for-the-northeast/ Thats a great article, want you guys to remember the ULLS of past years passing near or overhead, not talking about the synoptic surface low. ULL snow is the best, airy giant fast accumulating flakes. I have seen 8 inches fall in quick order from deep ULLS alone, none of which was modeled to be anything other than nuisance snow, so take heed , even if you miss out on the comma head things could get very interesting. I kind of cringe at those taking GFS QPF output verbatim, as Eduggs posted the GFS is too dry given the synoptics, the Euro seems to have a much better grasp on QPF distribution no matter the 75 mile difference in center of low pressure location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 12:41 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Im sorry you are so easily bothered. Perhaps get some thicker skin. It's a weather board and we are discussing possible outcomes. I'm of the opinion the Euro and it's ensembles as well as Ukie, ggem and Cmc ens are more correct on reasons we mentioned earlier. Lol ok... So saying there's a 1 in 3 shot of a major snowstorm in CT is not discussing the possible outcomes? A 1 in 3 chance is actually a very high probability for a significant storm this far out. As I said if we want to go with the euro ensembles the odds of 6"+ of snow are less than 50/50 back this way. Some great hits and some late bloomers. But... I don't want to discuss possible outcomes that aren't snowy enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 12:26 AM, Ginxy said: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20150126.html On 2/12/2015 at 12:32 AM, Ginxy said: Last I heard he said two misses, wonder if that changed. The Euro has never been most southwest in closing off lows this winter ever. Yes on that last one it continued to look better up until about 84 hours for those poor souls to our SW. I think it may be too wrapped up this time but who knows? I guess we can call tomorrow a hit, just like today was a "hit" for those that got the OES. Low looks great for Sunday but it may be too far NE for huge impact in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 12:38 AM, Ginxy said: If WSI says it then yes, again why my laptop is pinned to the ceiling Here's your bowling ball. 1.5 potential vorticity unit surface, pressures on that surface in black and winds on that surface in white barbs. Sniffing ozone is right, next frame I can find a 790 mb pressure near ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 12:45 AM, CT Rain said: Lol ok... So saying there's a 1 in 3 shot of a major snowstorm in CT is not discussing the possible outcomes? A 1 in 3 chance is actually a very high probability for a significant storm this far out. As I said if we want to go with the euro ensembles the odds of 6"+ of snow are less than 50/50 back this way. Some great hits and some late bloomers. But... I don't want to discuss possible outcomes that aren't snowy enough. Fair enough. I'm not going to continue this because I know what you guys are discussing in the mod forum. Hopefully modeling comes into better focus tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 12:06 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Wow. Aggressive, strongly worded AFD from BOX...especially for eastern areas. Hopefully we gain some confidence for folks w of ORH. I thought you wrote it when the author noted "akin to some of the bigger storms we've seen..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 12:13 AM, CoastalWx said: I didn't see forecasts, but it's far enough out so that you can't always throw a solution out, even if someone like myself thinks the euro is closer to correct. If the euro hedges to the GFS, that changes things. The fact the GFS and NAM are so similar at 84 hours leads me to higher confidence the GFS is wrong on this event, the NAM was actually borderline south of the GFS at 18Z at the end of its run, I cannot recall many times the NAM has done that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 12:49 AM, weathafella said: I thought you wrote it when the author noted "akin to some of the bigger storms we've seen..."It was def not "tepid" or asinine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 12:49 AM, weathafella said: I thought you wrote it when the author noted "akin to some of the bigger storms we've seen..." lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This Upper Level Low is an absolute BEAST...PERIOD. That aint Garden variety Lighter fluid hitting the Ocean, that's pure JET FUEL ready to ingnite. This may be something special indeed?? Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 12:13 AM, sbos_wx said: That thing sort of came off the coast further south and then tracked north ... this one is coming off the coast further north and tracking east. Different aloft too. One difference, at least at this moment, is that the EURO was on it's own then....this time it isn't as drastic an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 12:53 AM, SnowGoose69 said: The fact the GFS and NAM are so similar at 84 hours leads me to higher confidence the GFS is wrong on this event, the NAM was actually borderline south of the GFS at 18Z at the end of its run, I cannot recall many times the NAM has done that. Yeah. I just think people are going over the top with this. There is a lot of time left, and people are hyping this up big time. Kind of stupid. A tick NE and it's 3" of wind blown fluff too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This modeled setup reminds me a little bit of a storm in December 2000. That had a strong ULL that dropped out of Canada. I think it wasn't quite so deep and dug a little further south, however. The SLP ended up tucking in pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 12:49 AM, weathafella said: I thought you wrote it when the author noted "akin to some of the bigger storms we've seen..." I do have an "akin" fetish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 1:04 AM, eduggs said: This modeled setup reminds me a little bit of a storm in December 2000. That had a strong ULL that dropped out of Canada. I think it wasn't quite so deep and dug a little further south, however. The SLP ended up tucking in pretty close. Jerry ambush in 3.....2.......1.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 1:03 AM, CoastalWx said: Yeah. I just think people are going over the top with this. There is a lot of time left, and people are hyping this up big time. Kind of stupid. A tick NE and it's 3" of wind blown fluff too. Overconfidence from the hot streak. Deep upper level systems don't always produce snowy events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Isn't the more likely option a SW trend than north given the transient block? N stream systems like to trend south while southern streamers come north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HullMA Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 12:53 AM, SnowGoose69 said: The fact the GFS and NAM are so similar at 84 hours leads me to higher confidence the GFS is wrong on this event, the NAM was actually borderline south of the GFS at 18Z at the end of its run, I cannot recall many times the NAM has done that. This is actually a really awesome inference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 1:03 AM, CoastalWx said: Yeah. I just think people are going over the top with this. There is a lot of time left, and people are hyping this up big time. Kind of stupid. A tick NE and it's 3" of wind blown fluff too. I could def. see somewhat of a euro/GFS comp....and there wouldn't be much room for a not-so-lame solution in that case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 1:08 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I could def. see somewhat of a euro/GFS comp....and there wouldn't be much room for a not-so-lame solution in that case. Yeah I'm not suggesting one or the other...but everyone including the media is losing their sh*t right now. Pump the brakes a bit. It's only because of the situation now with the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 1:03 AM, CoastalWx said: Yeah. I just think people are going over the top with this. There is a lot of time left, and people are hyping this up big time. Kind of stupid. A tick NE and it's 3" of wind blown fluff too.I will buy you beers all night long if you only get 3 inches of fluff, way way too much consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 1:12 AM, CoastalWx said: Yeah I'm not suggesting one or the other...but everyone including the media is losing their sh*t right now. Pump the brakes a bit. It's only because of the situation now with the snow. I def. favor the EURO, but the notion of somewhat of a compromise is not outlandish....which is big because there isn't much leeway in that regard....unless you're in ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Tomorrow's storm fell apart after a few decent runs. The Sunday storm could do something similar. Late spins ups are notoriously tricky. Southern stream events are more reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 1:12 AM, CoastalWx said: Yeah I'm not suggesting one or the other...but everyone including the media is losing their sh*t right now. Pump the brakes a bit. It's only because of the situation now with the snow.yea and the wind, cold . seems a little bit of denial kicking in,some sensory overload. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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