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February 2015 Arctic Outbreak Thread


LithiaWx

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Looking like a near-slam dunk that low single digits are coming to western half of NC with 5-10 below in the mountains both Thursday and Friday mornings... high's on Thursday could stay in the single digits 3000 ft and above.

 

Thursday's low temps are going to be due to extreme cold air advection as -24 to -28 850's will be rolling into Western North Carolina between 6 and 12z Thursday. There will be wind chills below zero across a wide area, my guess would be 50 percent of more of the state. Friday's low's will be based more on radiational cooling which could result in some interesting numbers (sheltered valley vs ridge tops)

 

BTW, these numbers east of the mountains will likely apply to the I-85 Corridor in South Carolina as well...

 

 

Also, I noted just skimming through the guidance this afternoon...hints of additional bouts of  cold showing up in the mid to long range. This pattern looks to be sending us into early March...

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I'm very interested to see how low we all go with this one. The Jan cold was forecast at 13 for GSP , made it down to 8. The other day, noaa had me at 4 for the upcoming plunge, now it's more like 8. Would love to go below zero but I don't think we'll get there in the upstate except places like Ceasars Head. I predict as low as 5 for GSP.

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Would love to see a high in the teens, that would be awesome. Forecast for upstate keeps going up. Saw a 24, 2 days ago, now up to 27. :( Low keeps going up too :(

I think it's lack of snowcover that's making the forecast temps keep creeping up. A few days back, the models were kicking out alot of 3-6+ inches of snow and models take into account snowcover in their forecast, so no sc= temps not as cold
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I think it's lack of snowcover that's making the forecast temps keep creeping up. A few days back, the models were kicking out alot of 3-6+ inches of snow and models take into account snowcover in their forecast, so no sc= temps not as cold

That was my fear the other day with such extreme low temps forecast. It would really be helpful if we had a snowpack and excellent radiational cooling to get down to 0 or below.

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That was my fear the other day with such extreme low temps forecast. It would really be helpful if we had a snowpack and excellent radiational cooling to get down to 0 or below.

 

The -4 we hit here in 1985 for the all time low was without snow cover.......the best we have done since then is 0 Xmas Eve 1989 with snow cover.....heck even last year after that Jan storm we got down to 3 with snowcover.....kinda ironic we have only been below zero here once and that was without snow cover....

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The -4 we hit here in 1985 for the all time low was without snow cover.......the best we have done since then is 0 Xmas Eve 1989 with snow cover.....heck even last year after that Jan storm we got down to 3 with snowcover.....kinda ironic we have only been below zero here once and that was without snow cover....

I don't remember 1985. The historical nature of that is what makes it so hard to believe we could approach 0 without some snowpack. Don't know if that makes any sense or not. It just seems really, really hard to do.

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The -4 we hit here in 1985 for the all time low was without snow cover.......the best we have done since then is 0 Xmas Eve 1989 with snow cover.....heck even last year after that Jan storm we got down to 3 with snowcover.....kinda ironic we have only been below zero here once and that was without snow cover....

I remember 85, I lived in Virginia Beach and that was the only time the temp went below zero, bottomed out at -4 and there was snow cover.

Here in New Bern, the only time it went below zero was in 89 Christmas Eve and there was snow on the ground.

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Whats even more impressive to me is that here at PGV there hasnt been a obs over 32 since midnight last Sat......so that will be 72 hrs straight at midnight tonight below freezing and we most likely wont get above freezing till late morning tomorrow.....and then it will only be above freezing for maybe 5-8 hrs tops then we go way below freezing again for at least another 48 or hrs

 

We are going to be at or below 32 almost 6 days straight except for a short period tomorrow.....many of that spent well below freezing at that.

 

http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KPGV.html

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A lot of records in jeopardy the next couple of days, especially Thursday for ATL. I think we'll tie/break the record low and record low max temperature on Thursday imo, Friday will be very close...

RECORDS FOR 02-19...THURSDAY

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      79 1939     37 1972     54 1986     14 1958
                            1905        1961
                                        1938
   KATL      78 1891     36 1958     57 1890     13 1958
                            1942
   KCSG      80 2011     43 1958     58 1949     17 1958
   KMCN      82 1956     43 1972     59 1986     17 1958
                                        1981

RECORDS FOR 02-20...FRIDAY

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      78 1986     38 1910     57 1991     18 1958
                                                    1928
   KATL      78 1986     32 1901     57 1994     16 1934
   KCSG      80 1986     48 1959     63 1991     22 1958
   KMCN      80 1991     42 1940     61 1961     21 1958
                1986        1927
                            1910
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Coldest I have ever seen was Jan 85 - got down to -14 in mby in Dacusville. GSP was like -4 or -5 that night. I don't think there was snow cover here then but I'm not sure. I think the last time I saw below zero was in 96 - it was -1 when I left for school. Now Ceasar's Head was below zero couple times just last year. All time record for SC set there in 85 with -19.

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A lot of records in jeopardy the next couple of days, especially Thursday for ATL. I think we'll tie/break the record low and record low max temperature on Thursday imo, Friday will be very close...

RECORDS FOR 02-19...THURSDAY

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      79 1939     37 1972     54 1986     14 1958
                            1905        1961
                                        1938
   KATL      78 1891     36 1958     57 1890     13 1958
                            1942
   KCSG      80 2011     43 1958     58 1949     17 1958
   KMCN      82 1956     43 1972     59 1986     17 1958
                                        1981

RECORDS FOR 02-20...FRIDAY

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      78 1986     38 1910     57 1991     18 1958
                                                    1928
   KATL      78 1986     32 1901     57 1994     16 1934
   KCSG      80 1986     48 1959     63 1991     22 1958
   KMCN      80 1991     42 1940     61 1961     21 1958
                1986        1927
                            1910

Thursday's high temp will break the old record low max by nearly ten degrees at KATL.

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Thinking about taking the family up to the Parkway for a picnic tomorrow:

  • Today Snow showers likely before 2pm, then snow showers between 2pm and 4pm, then snow showers likely with areas of blowing snow after 4pm. Temperature falling to around 14 by 5pm. Wind chill values as low as -4. Breezy, with a west wind 13 to 18 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
  • Tonight A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -8. Wind chill values as low as -25. Blustery, with a northwest wind 20 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
  • Thursday A slight chance of snow showers before 1pm. Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 4. Wind chill values as low as -29. Blustery, with a northwest wind around 23 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
  • Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around -4. Wind chill values as low as -23. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph.
  •  
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Thinking about taking the family up to the Parkway for a picnic tomorrow:

  • Today Snow showers likely before 2pm, then snow showers between 2pm and 4pm, then snow showers likely with areas of blowing snow after 4pm. Temperature falling to around 14 by 5pm. Wind chill values as low as -4. Breezy, with a west wind 13 to 18 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
  • Tonight A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -8. Wind chill values as low as -25. Blustery, with a northwest wind 20 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
  • Thursday A slight chance of snow showers before 1pm. Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 4. Wind chill values as low as -29. Blustery, with a northwest wind around 23 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
  • Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around -4. Wind chill values as low as -23. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph.
  •  

 

 

One of the few times you won't have to worry about the mayo going bad.

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