Marion_NC_WX Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Looking like a near-slam dunk that low single digits are coming to western half of NC with 5-10 below in the mountains both Thursday and Friday mornings... high's on Thursday could stay in the single digits 3000 ft and above. Thursday's low temps are going to be due to extreme cold air advection as -24 to -28 850's will be rolling into Western North Carolina between 6 and 12z Thursday. There will be wind chills below zero across a wide area, my guess would be 50 percent of more of the state. Friday's low's will be based more on radiational cooling which could result in some interesting numbers (sheltered valley vs ridge tops) BTW, these numbers east of the mountains will likely apply to the I-85 Corridor in South Carolina as well... Also, I noted just skimming through the guidance this afternoon...hints of additional bouts of cold showing up in the mid to long range. This pattern looks to be sending us into early March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Really..come on, we live in NC, not MN.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Bout 5 -10 degrees too low there Pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I'm very interested to see how low we all go with this one. The Jan cold was forecast at 13 for GSP , made it down to 8. The other day, noaa had me at 4 for the upcoming plunge, now it's more like 8. Would love to go below zero but I don't think we'll get there in the upstate except places like Ceasars Head. I predict as low as 5 for GSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 They are calling for single digits here on Friday morning. I have lived here since 96 and the lowest I have seen here was 12 back in January last year. They are saying this cold could shatter record high lows and record lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 If by some miracle, this little system tomorrow can lay down a wide swath of a couple of inches of snow, I would believe we could get down to 0. I'm don't think it's likely many will see that much snow, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 This is a once in a generation cold shot. 18z GFS came in colder for CLT with a high of only 19 and 15 at HKY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I expect maybe 7 or 8 imby , at worst! My sleet cover will mostly be gone by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 This is a once in a generation cold shot. 18z GFS came in colder for CLT with a high of only 19 and 15 at HKY. Would love to see a high in the teens, that would be awesome. Forecast for upstate keeps going up. Saw a 24, 2 days ago, now up to 27. Low keeps going up too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Would love to see a high in the teens, that would be awesome. Forecast for upstate keeps going up. Saw a 24, 2 days ago, now up to 27. Low keeps going up too I think it's lack of snowcover that's making the forecast temps keep creeping up. A few days back, the models were kicking out alot of 3-6+ inches of snow and models take into account snowcover in their forecast, so no sc= temps not as cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I think it's lack of snowcover that's making the forecast temps keep creeping up. A few days back, the models were kicking out alot of 3-6+ inches of snow and models take into account snowcover in their forecast, so no sc= temps not as cold That was my fear the other day with such extreme low temps forecast. It would really be helpful if we had a snowpack and excellent radiational cooling to get down to 0 or below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 We didn't have any snow on the ground when we posted an 8 the other month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 That was my fear the other day with such extreme low temps forecast. It would really be helpful if we had a snowpack and excellent radiational cooling to get down to 0 or below. If we can get some snow tomorrow, it would really help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 That was my fear the other day with such extreme low temps forecast. It would really be helpful if we had a snowpack and excellent radiational cooling to get down to 0 or below. The -4 we hit here in 1985 for the all time low was without snow cover.......the best we have done since then is 0 Xmas Eve 1989 with snow cover.....heck even last year after that Jan storm we got down to 3 with snowcover.....kinda ironic we have only been below zero here once and that was without snow cover.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The -4 we hit here in 1985 for the all time low was without snow cover.......the best we have done since then is 0 Xmas Eve 1989 with snow cover.....heck even last year after that Jan storm we got down to 3 with snowcover.....kinda ironic we have only been below zero here once and that was without snow cover.... I don't remember 1985. The historical nature of that is what makes it so hard to believe we could approach 0 without some snowpack. Don't know if that makes any sense or not. It just seems really, really hard to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The -4 we hit here in 1985 for the all time low was without snow cover.......the best we have done since then is 0 Xmas Eve 1989 with snow cover.....heck even last year after that Jan storm we got down to 3 with snowcover.....kinda ironic we have only been below zero here once and that was without snow cover.... I remember 85, I lived in Virginia Beach and that was the only time the temp went below zero, bottomed out at -4 and there was snow cover. Here in New Bern, the only time it went below zero was in 89 Christmas Eve and there was snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Whats even more impressive to me is that here at PGV there hasnt been a obs over 32 since midnight last Sat......so that will be 72 hrs straight at midnight tonight below freezing and we most likely wont get above freezing till late morning tomorrow.....and then it will only be above freezing for maybe 5-8 hrs tops then we go way below freezing again for at least another 48 or hrs We are going to be at or below 32 almost 6 days straight except for a short period tomorrow.....many of that spent well below freezing at that. http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KPGV.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 A lot of records in jeopardy the next couple of days, especially Thursday for ATL. I think we'll tie/break the record low and record low max temperature on Thursday imo, Friday will be very close... RECORDS FOR 02-19...THURSDAY MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 79 1939 37 1972 54 1986 14 1958 1905 1961 1938 KATL 78 1891 36 1958 57 1890 13 1958 1942 KCSG 80 2011 43 1958 58 1949 17 1958 KMCN 82 1956 43 1972 59 1986 17 1958 1981 RECORDS FOR 02-20...FRIDAY MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 78 1986 38 1910 57 1991 18 1958 1928 KATL 78 1986 32 1901 57 1994 16 1934 KCSG 80 1986 48 1959 63 1991 22 1958 KMCN 80 1991 42 1940 61 1961 21 1958 1986 1927 1910 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 GFS is coming in colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Not significantly colder but it's down a degree this run at CLT. Temp valid at 18z on Thursday is 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Coldest I have ever seen was Jan 85 - got down to -14 in mby in Dacusville. GSP was like -4 or -5 that night. I don't think there was snow cover here then but I'm not sure. I think the last time I saw below zero was in 96 - it was -1 when I left for school. Now Ceasar's Head was below zero couple times just last year. All time record for SC set there in 85 with -19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Our record low for tomorrow night is 9, fox met says we hit 7, we will see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 A lot of records in jeopardy the next couple of days, especially Thursday for ATL. I think we'll tie/break the record low and record low max temperature on Thursday imo, Friday will be very close... RECORDS FOR 02-19...THURSDAY MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 79 1939 37 1972 54 1986 14 1958 1905 1961 1938 KATL 78 1891 36 1958 57 1890 13 1958 1942 KCSG 80 2011 43 1958 58 1949 17 1958 KMCN 82 1956 43 1972 59 1986 17 1958 1981 RECORDS FOR 02-20...FRIDAY MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 78 1986 38 1910 57 1991 18 1958 1928 KATL 78 1986 32 1901 57 1994 16 1934 KCSG 80 1986 48 1959 63 1991 22 1958 KMCN 80 1991 42 1940 61 1961 21 1958 1986 1927 1910 Thursday's high temp will break the old record low max by nearly ten degrees at KATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The coldest of recent memory for me was a low of 1 a couple days after the Carolina Crusher in 2000. That was w/ almost 2' of snow on the ground though :| Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Again, really...the PV part deux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 ^ If we could only get some blocking over Greenland at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It got down to 22° this morning. That's a few degrees colder than what was forecast. I think the NWS had a forecast of 26°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Thinking about taking the family up to the Parkway for a picnic tomorrow: Today Snow showers likely before 2pm, then snow showers between 2pm and 4pm, then snow showers likely with areas of blowing snow after 4pm. Temperature falling to around 14 by 5pm. Wind chill values as low as -4. Breezy, with a west wind 13 to 18 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Tonight A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -8. Wind chill values as low as -25. Blustery, with a northwest wind 20 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Thursday A slight chance of snow showers before 1pm. Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 4. Wind chill values as low as -29. Blustery, with a northwest wind around 23 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around -4. Wind chill values as low as -23. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Thinking about taking the family up to the Parkway for a picnic tomorrow: Today Snow showers likely before 2pm, then snow showers between 2pm and 4pm, then snow showers likely with areas of blowing snow after 4pm. Temperature falling to around 14 by 5pm. Wind chill values as low as -4. Breezy, with a west wind 13 to 18 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Tonight A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -8. Wind chill values as low as -25. Blustery, with a northwest wind 20 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Thursday A slight chance of snow showers before 1pm. Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 4. Wind chill values as low as -29. Blustery, with a northwest wind around 23 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around -4. Wind chill values as low as -23. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. One of the few times you won't have to worry about the mayo going bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 One of the few times you won't have to worry about the mayo going bad. Lol, you'll have a chance to try a Mayo Icee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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