Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Notice the gradual warming that has occurred in the model runs. Now the 12Z GFS has ATL with a high on 2/15 near 32 vs. 20's yesterday. It could end up in the low 40's at this rate. maybe the models are now taking into account the much higher sun angle this time of year compared to a month ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 maybe the models are now taking into account the much higher sun angle this time of year compared to a month ago.The sun angle was going to be strong, but it saw the cold and did a u turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 maybe the models are now taking into account the much higher sun angle this time of year compared to a month ago. .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Notice the gradual warming that has occurred in the model runs. Now the 12Z GFS has ATL with a high on 2/15 near 32 vs. 20's yesterday. It could end up in the low 40's at this rate. Other models echoing that trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Other models echoing that trend? I think the Euro has to some extent though it may not have warmed as much. The 0Z Euro warmed a few degrees over the 12Z Euro. Regardless, we will still have a mighty cold airmass to experience and I'm excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 12z GFS is showing temps around zero for the foothills of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 12z GFS is showing temps around zero for the foothills of NC. Per 12Z GFS: KATL gets down to 10! NE ATL and Mayretta get down to 9! These haven't really warmed. It is the highs that have warmed...to the low 30's from the 20's yesterday. Regardless, this is still very impressive overall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Don't look at the drunk Doc if you don't want bad news. The 12Z Euro is much less cold than the 0Z Euro and the 12Z GFS. Hopefully, it is just drunk. The high doesn't plunge nearly as deeply..that's why it is sooo much warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Don't look at the drunk Doc if you don't want bad news. The 12Z Euro is much less cold than the 0Z Euro and the 12Z GFS. Hopefully, it is just drunk.That means rainstorm incoming for the 17th, if anything at all?! We should not be surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 12Z Euro: KATL low only down to high 20's and high near 40 on 2/15. Hopefully. it is just a bad burp from all of that drinking. I'll have to ask Chris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 Don't look at the drunk Doc if you don't want bad news. The 12Z Euro is much less cold than the 0Z Euro and the 12Z GFS. Hopefully, it is just drunk. The high doesn't plunge nearly as deeply..that's why it is sooo much warmer. I did notice it seems to direct the shot a bit more easterly, I noticed the same issue with the 850's on the GFS. I can't see doc 2m temps just the 850's. Trending more towards a NC directed shot imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I did notice it seems to direct the shot a bit more easterly, I noticed the same issue with the 850's on the GFS. I can't see doc 2m temps just the 850's. Trending more towards a NC directed shot imo. I believe that's how January went down too, right? I do remember the euro verified way too warm in January for that shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 I believe that's how January went down too, right? I do remember the euro verified way too warm in January for that shot. I remember the Euro being the extreme warm outlier during the last shot. The GFS did very well on temps but majorly busted on the DP's, all models showed DP's much lower than reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I did notice it seems to direct the shot a bit more easterly, I noticed the same issue with the 850's on the GFS. I can't see doc 2m temps just the 850's. Trending more towards a NC directed shot imo. Here's the irony of this 12Z Euro: because the Arctic high doesn't come down as deeply, it is actually colder on 2/17 in most areas when the storm comes in lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 For NC, it is as has been noted still quite cold on 2/15. For GA, it is warmer on 2/15 but it is actually colder later (2/17) when the precip. comes in. So, for GA, it is sort of a tradeoff of giving up the Arctic plunge on 2/15 for colder just afterward and a shot at wintry precip 2/17!. Boy, next week is going to be one wild and wacky week to follow and hopefully also to experience! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I remember the Euro being the extreme warm outlier during the last shot. The GFS did very well on temps but majorly busted on the DP's, all models showed DP's much lower than reality. For here, all the models' raw data busted too warm (not surprising), but the Euro was the worst offender, as mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Not all that surprising with the models backing off the severe cold push on Sunday. Euro/EPS was similar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I think the Euro has to some extent though it may not have warmed as much. The 0Z Euro warmed a few degrees over the 12Z Euro. Regardless, we will still have a mighty cold airmass to experience and I'm excited.Now if only we can get some slushy stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 18Z GFS is coming in way way warmer for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 18Z GFS is coming in way way warmer for everyoneAwesome thread jinx! Guess we shouldn't start a cold thread 5 days out either! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I understand why marion wanted to wait. Everything goes from one extreme to another. Forecasting with the models is like throwing darts on a board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The GFS isn't much warmer for NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 For clarification, the 18z GFS still has a major Arctic blast for NC/SC. It just shifted more east, which has focused the cold on NC/SC while mostly sparing the rest of the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 For clarification, the 18z GFS still has a major Arctic blast for NC/SC. It just shifted more east, which has focused the cold on NC/SC while mostly sparing the rest of the SE. Does it? It seemed like it warmed up 5-10 degrees for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Does it? It seemed like it warmed up 5-10 degrees for everyone. I didn't look at 2m temps, so maybe it is, but it still easily has -20C 850s here, so it's cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The trend seems to be warmer though and farther NE. If this happens 2-3 more times then it will not be much of a cold spell at all. Of course it could reverse, but with how this winter has gone I don't see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Does it? It seemed like it warmed up 5-10 degrees for everyone. My consistent lows in the low 20's upper teens per yesterday's GFS runs are now at 31 or up, unless you go out to the 17th, and then after that, it skyrockets, which it was not doing yesterday at all; so yes, it seems like it's warmed. But I keep telling myself, its a garbage 18Z run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 My consistent lows in the low 20's upper teens per yesterday's GFS runs are now at 31 or up, unless you go out to the 17th, and then after that, it skyrockets, which it was not doing yesterday at all; so yes, it seems like it's warmed. But I keep telling myself, its a garbage 18Z run lol Come on man, we all know Florida doesn't count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Come on man, we all know Florida doesn't count. Dude - please .... ====== btw - going from 18 to 31 for lows and 45 to 59 for highs at the same forecast hours on one day's runs says something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It's not over yet! The 18z GFS has us getting down to 12 next Thursday. FebFreeze is still on. Delayed, not denied! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.