UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Not even a chance lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The GFS verbatim could be snow or ice even down here in Austin-cold air here notoriously pushes south of the 850mb zero line which causes the freezing rain/sleet outbreaks around DFW. It doesn't reach down here often but a setup like that is how it happens. There's a strong high pressing east of the Rockies as well to cool the surface. I'd love to see this city try to function with 1-3" of snow and freezing rain. You think Boston is having a hard time now? I've worked in Austin. 10 minutes of sleet and they shut down. You'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 murky pieces.... op runs.... watch this come back to ya all dm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This almost isnt even real. After an inland runner going over Buffalo ( and people panicking aboutn rain for us), we had 6 straight runs moving south and or east 50-150 miles each run. Now the latest run shifts an additional 350 miles!! Not sure I've ever seen such a change in a 72 hour period. I realize it's post 100 hours for these models, but...shouldn't the models be doing a little better than this in this 120-144 hour time frame?? Good grief. GEFS looked decent and the ukmet actually came northwest at 00z so it's probably not as bad as it seems. The ukmet has been doing better than the euro at this time range recently anyways. It seems pretty familiar to "lose" a storm 120–132 hours out only to have it reappear 24–36 hours later.. maybe because of poorer sampling in parts of the northeast Pacific where the main players are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think the sentence "the only real threat" should be removed from this thread" Silly to have it there in the first place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Fish Storm Watch in effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Fish Storm Watch in effect. For now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 You should not see suppression with this in front of you . The NEG EPO will force this under as a result of the confluence , but when it gets to the EC lets hope it climbs it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Strung Out Junk... http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1423827279 this is such a cop out from the WPC how do you release a map like that ---- CYA B.S.- imo- at it's best REALLY? a 12 year old could have drawn that Mr. Rausch may need a time out LOL my forecast idea looks in trouble ATM I man up,,, but not out yet dm http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f120_us.html http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f144_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The last 5 runs of the gfs have shifted the low east further than the last. For our sake I hope it's just the SE bias at play here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 You should not see suppression with this in front of you . The NEG EPO will force this under as a result of the confluence , but when it gets to the EC lets hope it climbs it . The +NAO is not helping our chances with this at all, in fact it is largely responsible for the progressive and ots solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 OTS is becoming more likely it seems. Any storm threats after that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 OTS is becoming more likely it seems. Any storm threats after that? Still way out there. Lets see what happens when tomorrows storm passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 About 60% of the 00z EPS ensemble members were southeast of the benchmark, about 25% were near the benchmark and about 15% tracked near the coast or inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Why does it say the only real threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 So lets summarize. The GFS is East, the Euro is east. The GFS ensembles are actually more like the 18z gfs, so I would put that in the west camp. The nam isnt in range, Can anyone fill in where the GGEM is and Ukie? EDIT: GEM is also East. UKIE is on the eastern envelope but not as far east as the GGEM or the latest GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 So lets summarize. The GFS is East, the Euro is east. The GFS ensembles are actually more like the 18z gfs, so I would put that in the west camp. The nam isnt in range, Can anyone fill in where the GGEM is and Ukie? Go back a few pages, all the information is already there about the 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Go back a few pages, all the information is already there about the 00z runs. I scrolled back through and didn't see anything about the GEM or UKIE, which is why I asked. Unless im just blind, which is certainly possible I did just go and look online for myself and the GEM is also east. Dunno where to find the Ukie thoug. EDIT: never mind, found them both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The +NAO is not helping our chances with this at all, in fact it is largely responsible for the progressive and ots solution. IMO With a POS PNA , Heights should rise on the EC . The NAO Being POS argues for this to be progressive through the flow and slide east . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 OTS even on the 84 hour NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 OTS even on the 84 hour NAM Eh its not really in range. Wait till 0z or tomorrows 12z. Even then I wouldnt really put much stock in it, even if it showed a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Eh its not really in range. Wait till 0z or tomorrows 12z. Even then I wouldnt really put much stock in it, even if it showed a good storm. Yeah same here.....only worth mentioning this time because it does actually fall in line with most of the other model guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The last 5 runs of the gfs have shifted the low east further than the last. For our sake I hope it's just the SE bias at play here. Euro did as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Euro did as well. Yea it did, I mentioned that above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 WPC updated day 5 prog 9:52 am EDT http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=5&fcolor=wbg 500mb http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/d5500wbg.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 WPC updated day 5 prog 9:52 am EDT http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=5&fcolor=wbg d5.gif Coast = Snow. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Coast = Snow. Sent from my iPhone S.I. Yes..we still in the game till the ENS take it away!!!!! or maybe not??? lol it's fun tracking regardless http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015021306/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_20.png three options http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015021306/gfs-ens_uv250_us_18.png any glimpse of a Benchmark op run today and this thread strings us out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The GFS is probably going to be coming back West, it's digging the energy a lot more into the southwest than the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The GFS is probably going to be coming back West, it's digging the energy a lot more into the southwest than the previous run. More energy ejecting also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 More energy ejecting also It's a good few hundred miles West so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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