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Feb 17 Miller A Threat


Zelocita Weather

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Relax Cats

resolution issues-imo

check this comp

 

it lost all three markers????

we don't give in so fast....  the system is at 992mb 

op run at that

my progs are from the ENS blend

 

 I did state to give this another 24hr window-YES??

spot check the ENS when they come out

bet ya feel better then

 

 btw the Winter Flights will also help tighten things up --good or bad

a very busy day out there  

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&nontasked=2015

 

dm

 

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It'd be nice to get the northern stream less involved so the southern stream shortwave can amplify. Of course, then we run the risk of warmth. I guess we can't win. :(

I have done better with front end dumps and cutters then. Northern stream disturbances. Please let this cut into tenn. I will take the 3-6
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You have over 25 inches. That's great compared to people to your south.

I actually have 37.1" but that's pretty bad compared to the other side of the state I live in :lol: I am basically on pace for an average season while they clean up with 150-200% of average. In other words, I know what it's like to get screwed. I had 36" in '09-'10 lol.

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The GFS verbatim could be snow or ice even down here in Austin-cold air here notoriously pushes south of the 850mb zero line which causes the freezing rain/sleet outbreaks around DFW. It doesn't reach down here often but a setup like that is how it happens. There's a strong high pressing east of the Rockies as well to cool the surface.

 

I'd love to see this city try to function with 1-3" of snow and freezing rain. You think Boston is having a hard time now? :snowman:

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http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=eus&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2015021300&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=266.6666666666667

 

GEFS -ENS comp

oh........ them that hug the rug  :bag:

 

 

anyway you cut it ...the B.M. is the red zone on back to back runs

 

free euro look in for good measure

120 hrs

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015021300/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_6.png

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This almost isnt even real. After an inland runner going over Buffalo ( and people panicking aboutn rain for us), we had 6 straight runs moving south and or east 50-150 miles each run. Now the latest run shifts an additional 350 miles!! Not sure I've ever seen such a change in a 72 hour period. I realize it's post 100 hours for these models, but...shouldn't the models be doing a little better than this in this 120-144 hour time frame?? Good grief. 

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