CaptainHarr Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Central Hunterdon County Snow was heavy enough to begin blotting out streetlamps for a bit. It's slowed down but still light/moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 This is what I've been saying all night lol..I've always thought Jersey does well as well as Long Island, I said it many time in many posts, my concerns were for the nyc and points North folks, thinking that band etc was gonna make it up here Ha , then we are on the same page . I think MC could see 4 , but the city was 1 to 2 . That`s why I said if KNYC gets 2 , guys should kiss the ground . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Ha , then we are on the same page . I think MC could see 4 , but the city was 1 to 2 . That`s why I said if KNYC gets 2 , guys should kiss the ground . Agreed, the backfill is very good to support a bust on the high side for many in Jersey, however it will pull east before ever making it up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Didn't like this from Mt. Holly - and it's very poorly written, too. WTF does, "BANKING ON THE QPF FROM 06Z-12Z TO DRIVE THE AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH OR SO OF THE BOTTOM OF OUR RANGES." mean? Are they saying if you're in a 3-4" zone, that you should expect an inch less than the bottom of the range, i.e., 2"? NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1154 PM EST MON FEB 16 2015 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...BASED ON RADAR AND THE 00Z/17 GFS/NAM/RGEM AND 02Z HRRR...FLUFFFACTOR WILL HAVE TO GET US OUR AMOUNTS I-95 NWWD. SNOW GROWTHDOES NOT LOOK VERY GOOD TO ME IN ANY OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND AMBANKING ON THE QPF FROM 06Z-12Z TO DRIVE THE AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCHOR SO OF THE BOTTOM OF OUR RANGES. NO CHANGES TO THE FCST ATTMPENDING REEVALUATION OF REALITY COMPARED TO THE MODEL FORECAST FOR06Z-09Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Didn't like this from Mt. Holly - and it's very poorly written, too. WTF does, "BANKING ON THE QPF FROM 06Z-12Z TO DRIVE THE AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH OR SO OF THE BOTTOM OF OUR RANGES." mean? Are they saying if you're in a 3-4" zone, that you should expect an inch less than the bottom of the range, i.e., 2"? NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1154 PM EST MON FEB 16 2015 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... BASED ON RADAR AND THE 00Z/17 GFS/NAM/RGEM AND 02Z HRRR...FLUFF FACTOR WILL HAVE TO GET US OUR AMOUNTS I-95 NWWD. SNOW GROWTH DOES NOT LOOK VERY GOOD TO ME IN ANY OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND AM BANKING ON THE QPF FROM 06Z-12Z TO DRIVE THE AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH OR SO OF THE BOTTOM OF OUR RANGES. NO CHANGES TO THE FCST ATTM PENDING REEVALUATION OF REALITY COMPARED TO THE MODEL FORECAST FOR 06Z-09Z. Looks like a drunk person wrote that, LOL. Radar is encouraging, so I think we're on track for 2 to 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Looks like a drunk person wrote that, LOL. Radar is encouraging, so I think we're on track for 2 to 4 inches.Whoever wrote the Mt Holly afd looks as if they were texting a colleague. It's mostly shorthand and not exactly coherent; not to mention the grammar is just horrific. Very interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Whoever wrote the Mt Holly afd looks as if they were texting a colleague. It's mostly shorthand and not exactly coherent; not to mention the grammar is just horrific. Very interesting to say the least. And it would be odd to lower snowfall amounts now, with how good radar looks. The moderate snow has really made a nice push to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Interesting or grasping for straws? Clearly further NW but the expected snows for most of us seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 So far radar looks better then actual rates. Will revisit in 20 minutes. Regardless nice to see the northern heavy band set up over my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Alot of precip working it's way from SW to NE interesting night ahead for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnow66 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Street and cars covered here in westbury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 A very light coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Whoever wrote the Mt Holly afd looks as if they were texting a colleague. It's mostly shorthand and not exactly coherent; not to mention the grammar is just horrific. Very interesting to say the least. lol yeah it really does. absolutely terrible!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Street and cars covered here in westbury.Strange not to your direct south. I wonder what is causing that. You are 100 feet higher maybe for this second Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 lol yeah it really does. absolutely terrible!! Just saw where Belleville was from union, and we are pretty far apart lol. Nenj has width I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJCoast Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Trying to learn.. Is there a general consensus on why this is over-performing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 For Long Island and CT Thursday AM UPTON AM LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ARCTIC FRONT WILL APPROACH WED EVENING.THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WED NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SNOWSHOWERS. THEN A STRONG VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPERTROUGH STILL TO THE WEST SHOULD INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS S OF CAPE GODLATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. MODELS HINT AT EITHER AN INVERTEDTROUGH EXTENDING NW OF THE LOW OR INTERACTION BETWEEN THE LOW ANDARCTIC FRONT THAT COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR A STEADY ACCUMULATINGLIGHT SNOW THU MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN SECTIONS OF SRNCT AND LONG ISLAND. THE UPPER TROUGH MAY ALSO SPARK ISOLD SNOWSHOWERS FARTHER WEST AS IT MOVES ACROSS THU INTO THU EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Trying to learn.. Is there a general consensus on why this is over-performing?50/50 low slowed down the system resulting building of bigger heights! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJCoast Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 50/50 low slowed down the system resulting building of bigger heights! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Thanks!anytime budSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 50/50 low slowed down the system resulting building of bigger heights! Nothing has slowed this down. Simply the precip shield extended slightly further north and we've had excellent ratios with this. It would've been a much nicer storm had the low been more consolidated and fully developed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Woah take it easyokay I will. Measured 3 inches in the city. Still coming down moderately 1/2mile vis. Snowski is my boy he won't get mad! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Trying to learn.. Is there a general consensus on why this is over-performing?Surface low intensified slightly faster and ~50 miles further northwest than expected.Mid level frontogeneis is occurring right over LI and coastal NJ, instead of further southeast over the Atlantic, which will def cause forecasts to bust to the upside. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJCoast Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Surface low intensified slightly faster and ~50 miles further northwest than expected. Mid level frontogeneis occurring right over LI and coastal NJ, which will def cause forecasts to bust to the upside. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19[/quote Great to get analysis from a met. Appreciate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Surface low intensified slightly faster and ~50 miles further northwest than expected. Mid level frontogeneis is occurring right over LI and coastal NJ, instead of further southeast over the Atlantic, which will def cause forecasts to bust to the upside. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19 Great insight. Color me pleasantly surprised, nice way to return from a holiday weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Surface low intensified slightly faster and ~50 miles further northwest than expected. Mid level frontogeneis is occurring right over LI and coastal NJ, instead of further southeast over the Atlantic, which will def cause forecasts to bust to the upside. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19 This is a good example of why we shouldn't take model output verbatim. Things change short term good and bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 This is a good example of why we shouldn't take model output verbatim. Things change short term good and bad. Models haven't been stellar at all this winter. Plus, the high ratios really helped out area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Models haven't been stellar at all this winter. Plus, the high ratios really helped out area. By the way Ant, it was your positive attitude that caused this nice outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 By the way Ant, it was your positive attitude that caused this nice outcome. Sometimes being a big weenie helps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Sometimes being a big weenie helps Someone locked the banter thread so I'll post this here, Anythony, this one is for you brother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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