Snowman86 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Snow is reaching areas earlier than expected, that's for sure, MIV in SRN NJ and ILG in DE it was not expected at either airport til 03Z yet its minutes away from ILG and maybe an hour from MIV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Snow being reported west of Philly. I think the virga isn't as big of an issue as some think and it's more a matter of the storm is simply too far south to greatly impact us, as it clouds over we will see DP's rise and with low temperatures the RH should rise quickly if temperatures can drop a few degrees (see what last night's RH was with -13 DP's) Too far south and just too unphased, open and weak. Also just because dry air is losing out fairly easily further to the south doesn't mean that will be the case further north in latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 So based on this comment i assume Clifton NJ is a miss for us....? Don't take my comment literally haha. I'm basing it off of past observations from past storms with similar setups ....every storm is different tho as you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 DM, what do you think this storm is going to do? Informed by a mod this morning that I don't know what I am talking about... so I will just post images..... NYC 4+ my call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Oh okay didn't realize it till now. Thanks for the heads up. xD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I was informed by a mod this morning that i don't know what I am talking about... so I will just post images..... NYC 4+ That's BS! I don't always agree with you but you put time and effort into your posts instead of I think such and such will happen as I myself am often guilty of. The whole point of this forum is to get multiple inputs from multiple people. I think Cpk reports 3" as long as the zoo keeper lays off the crack tonight. I guarantee if February 10 didn't happen people wouldn't be freaking out. That was a completely different situation. That was a powerhouse storm!! Getting squeezed to hell in a mega -nao. Nothing like that this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Informed by a mod this morning that I don't know what I am talking about... so I will just post images..... NYC 4+ my call snt.gif DM- always agree with you? no sir. ever think there is a dearth of info from you? no sir. on this one, we will agree to disagree - my call is 1-2" nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 New HRRR falling more in line with the RGEM.....struggles to go over an inch in the NYC area, though I still think the 1-3" call should hold (naturally more southern areas). Just simply following what has seemed to work all winter (unfortunately).....Check the GFS/Euro/RGEM Canadian.....check the RAP/HRRR as you get closer.....make guess.....wait for the RGEM/HRRR to match up eventually for reassurance. In some cases, the HRRR might miss a heavier band or two of snow or not nail the exact location of it, but overall it's pretty reliable and if it doesn't pick up on something so close to the event, or show any signs whatsoever of changing, it's probably because it most likely will not happen as we'd like. Someone in the southern Delmarva is going to get a foot or so though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loadletterpaper Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It appears that the pressure change map has a bad glitch today. I looked at the past 10 hours of observations and that pressure decrease has been continually centered over WV...no movement. I tend to have more confidence in the SPC Meso plots, e.g. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16. I've always liked the Unisys site tho. It's been an easy to access and navigate site for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'd expect the 00z runs to come in even drier...we can't win inside 24 hrs this year. Exactly like last March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'd expect the 00z runs to come in even drier...we can't win inside 24 hrs this year. Exactly like last March This reminds me alot of last March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I'd expect the 00z runs to come in even drier...we can't win inside 24 hrs this year. Exactly like last March Philly has been 50 miles east of radar soundings for almost 3 hours now lol, precip is hitting that dry air, same story up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Philly has been 50 miles east of radar soundings for almost 3 hours now lol, precip is hitting that dry air, same story up north Lol every storm follows the same trends here. I wrote a list the other night to describe it. Right now we're in the "the precip is never coming"phase.....this will be followed by "it's starting to come in finally", then "actually there's a stronger band developing.....we might get 4-6" after all wow", and then finally "eh it weakened on approach and went south east.....still an inch or two from this storm though"..... "On to the next storm" Ohhh the FUN!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 DTs storm map is rediculas lol. 1-3" 80 miles north of NYC lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Informed by a mod this morning that I don't know what I am talking about... so I will just post images..... NYC 4+ my call snt.gif Bullish... I like it! But I disagree wholeheartedly to the tune of C-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Lol every storm follows the same trends here. I wrote a list the other night to describe it. Right now we're in the "the precip is never coming"phase.....this will be followed by "it's starting to come in finally", then "actually there's a stronger band developing.....we might get 4-6" after all wow", and then finally "eh it weakened on approach and went south east.....still an inch or two from this storm though"..... "On to the next storm" Ohhh the FUN!!! That's exactly what I went through during those winters that you guys and the DC/Philly gang were getting plastered. Just when it looked like it was coming, it would hit the proverbial brick wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Incredible. NWS still calling for 2 to 5" in Suffolk. My call is 0 to Coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 That's exactly what I went through during those winters that you guys and the DC/Philly gang were getting plastered. Just when it looked like it was coming, it would hit the proverbial brick wall. It's worse when philly gets 28.5" and we get a trace. But yeah some areas in PA take hard hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 22Z RAP really shows the dry air scouring out the precip shield over NJ until between 12 am and 3 am at which point everything saturates from SW to NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 22Z RAP really shows the dry air scouring out the precip shield over NJ until between 12 am and 3 am at which point everything saturates from SW to NE. Toss it, out of range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Lol 24 hour surface forecast from Intellicast for the weenies http://www.intellicast.com/National/Surface/Forecast24.aspx has the low moving NE from Georgia/South Carolina off the North Carolina/Virgina Coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 Lol 24 hour surface forecast from Intellicast for the weenies http://www.intellicast.com/National/Surface/Forecast24.aspx has the low moving NE from Georgia/South Carolina off the North Carolina/Virgina Coast Seems legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 This is a very helpful quote to understanding what's been going on this winter. I mainly keep quiet and read what you guys have to say but just wanted to pop in and say thanks to you, Isentropic and others for keeping a cool head and sharing your expertise. Hopefully we get lucky over the next 4 weeks or so - looks like there will be plenty of cold air available at least. Thank you for the kind words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Say what you may, the 23z RAP has snow over Long Island for at least 8 hours...you figure it has to come down at least 1/4 inch an hour...so you would at least get 2 inches out of the deal at worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Incredible. NWS still calling for 2 to 5" in Suffolk. My call is 0 to Coating. I see 2-3 in most of suffolk on their map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The precip ends and the HRRR says the RGEM is the new king . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 The precip ends and the HRRR says the RGEM is the new king . DC is only getting 2-3"...I doubt it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 All you "but NYC is near normal for winter" guys can suck it if we end up with another coating after being forecasted for 2-4. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 DC is only getting 2-3"...I doubt it That`s 10 to 1 . that 4 is 6 for them . The call down there is 4 to 8 . Does not look that far off Their AFD STARTING WITH THE ISSUES WE ARE MOST CONFIDENT WITH...VERY COLD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...DESPITE WARMING FROM YESTERDAYS TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BARELY REACH THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOVER IN THE TEENS. 850MB TEMPS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EVENT WELL BELOW THE NORMALLY DESIRED THRESHOLD OF -7 DEGREES CELSIUS SO CONFIDENT THE ENTIRE EVENT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. WITH SUCH A COLD AIRMASS...ALSO EXPECTING HIGHER SNOW RATIOS...WHICH WILL BECOME A BIG PLAYER IN THE DETERMINATION OF SNOW TOTALS. CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED UPON A 15:1 RATIO...BUT VERY WELL COULD SEE EVEN UP TO 20:1 ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE. TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MD...COULD SEE SLIGHTLY LOWER RATIOS...MAYBE ONLY 12:1. THE NEXT FACTOR TO LOOK AT IS THE TOTAL QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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