IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Anyone from Western Suffolk County and points West are crushed. The Eastern half of LI is rain. There might be some sleet mixed in for Western LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Coastal hugger. Big hit late Tuesday night but you can see that the coast will eventually have precip type issues. Nope....big time hit..994 off acy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 990 inside the benchmark...snow goes to rain in boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Typical Miller A fast mover....over by 12z wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Plenty of backlash snows very late Tuesday night as the system pulls into the Gulf of Maine. 989mb East of NJ and 984mb right over the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Nope....big time hit..994 off acy SNJ and Eastern LI have plenty of precip issues. It ended up slightly better than I thought because once it got to ACY it took a further offshore track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Nope....big time hit..994 off acy Surface line and 850 line is right on top of each other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Solid 6-12 for 95 area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 990 inside the benchmark...snow goes to rain in boston At hour 141 it's excactly 983.7mb over the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 So is nyc and Monmouth county...be more specific It took a perfect track for almost all areas. Far enough NW to get into the good dynamics but far enough southeast to avoid taint, unless you're on the Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 No it was not... Unless acy represents all of snj Look at 925mb temps. There is a warm layer in there. Especially at hour 138. The 0C isotherm is brushing coastal Monmouth County and the south shore of LI. And the +8C isotherm is literraly no more than 40 or 50 miles southeast of NYC as the 925mb low tracks right off the CNJ coast and then right under LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Look at 925mb temps. There is a warm layer in there. Especially at hour 138. The 0C isotherm is brushing coastal Monmouth County and the south shore of LI. And the +8C isotherm is literraly no more than 40 or 50 miles southeast of NYC as the 925mb low tracks right off the CNJ coast and then right under LI. Dude , you are arguing the wrong point . The model showed a snowstorm all the way to the coastal plain as no one lives out over the water . That said I never buy an all out snowstorm on the coastal plain with LP sitting in the lakes without blocking . JMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Do you see that black line that runs from Dover DE then up through interior SNJ and then through Sandy Hook and then slices Long Island in half? What do you think that is? You can not just look at 850mb and surface temps. There is probably 3-6 hrs of taint in there for Central Long Island and coastal Monmouth County. Certainly not plain rain, but looks like sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Arguing over the specifics of a 130+-hour prog that will likely change in 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Arguing over the specifics of a 130+-hour prog that will likely change in 6 hours Agree . I am looking at the set up , that`s the bother for me . Where and how much I will see you back here in 100 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This settles it, even the city flips to a mix for a few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Mods please delete his paid maps...not the first time he did this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 You really can not tell for sure what's going on without looking at a sounding. The mid-level centers track right under LI which generally isn't good for keeping the coast taint free. In this case, the city was right on the edge between staying all snow and a bit of sleet. It`s 6 days away and you are arguing R S line . We can`t get through day 2 here . That should be the first sign to just leave it alone . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Ggem similar to gfs...Miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Hey, I realize that, but when you're giving a model analysis it's important to be correct. This isn't a day 8 fantasy storm either. Potential start time is early Tuesday. You stated that all of snj was rain before...on ur maps that is false. Not all snow, but not plain rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Ggem going with more of a 2 wave idea. Ptype issues for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 You stated that all of snj was rain before...on ur maps that is false. Not all snow, but not plain rain Correct, if you look at the precip type maps it's actually mostly freezing rain or sleet for them. We've already established that it wasn't as bad as I thought it was going to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Keep the discussion on track and banter where it belongs before timeouts are issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Euro doesn't eject all of the baja low until Tuesday morning...later I believe is better for.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Definitely the first legit south east winter storm threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Big time winter storm also for Dallas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Big time winter storm also for Dallas They get a lot of ice storms there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 hr 132 low in Georgia...ice storm in the carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Longer duration event where multiple pieces gradually eject northeastward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Broad low at hr 138 heAvy snow dca to nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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