UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 That's the point it isn't really being suppressed" reports of snow on md/pa border. I know that's my point, other than a weak low what's preventing the push North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Well as they say, "That's why they play the games" If nothing else, the models might be underdoing the extent of the precip under the lighter echos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 3 hour pressure change map. Anyone hazard a guess as to why the pressure is falling so rapidly in WV? To my eyes, this is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 3 hour pressure change map. Anyone hazard a guess as to why the pressure is falling so rapidly in WV? To my eyes, this is encouraging.heavy precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 3 hour pressure change map. Anyone hazard a guess as to why the pressure is falling so rapidly in WV? To my eyes, this is encouraging. Ill give it this, that map was useful in pegging the last storm exiting so far south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 That's right about where most models have it. It's just that the precip is very limited North of the low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yes, most models have it around 1000mb early tomorrow morning, not the strongest low pressure system to ever hit the area. But it looks to have a direct moisture feed from the Gulf and the precip shield is quite large currently. That's the problem here folks. It's a weak sauce open unphased low pressure area and there's no useful -NAO blocking to stop it from scooting to the south and east out to sea before it can make any significant turn north and west of current modeling. 1-2 inches north of Route 78 is generous at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Well the low pressure from the big storm off the maritime is acting as a 50/50 block this is why it's slowing it down and eventually it should churn it north east ward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Well the low pressure from the big storm off the maritime is acting as a 50/50 block this is why it's slowing it down and eventually it should churn it north east ward It will not be enough to help and it is very transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 That's the problem here folks. It's a weak sauce open unphased low pressure area and there's no useful -NAO blocking to stop it from scooting to the south and east out to sea before it can make any significant turn north and west of current modeling. 1-2 inches north of Route 78 is generous at this point.Our problem this whole winter (past four weeks) ... No blocking and the split flow over the Pacific as the storms enter Canada and the lower 48. The energy splits as it hits the lower 48 and without blocking, it has no time to consolidate. If we didn't have a split flow or a +NAO, we could have had a better winter, but with both of these against us, even threading the needle is incredibly hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Well the low pressure from the big storm off the maritime is acting as a 50/50 block this is why it's slowing it down and eventually it should churn it north east ward It will head NE (ENE), but it is not a powerhouse area of low pressure, it is way too far from us and does not have an expansive precip shield whatsoever.....Add all of the other issues into the mix and there's really no way that we see big snows from this. This time, it WILL snow for many of us, but most of us should all fall into that 1-3" range (less N and W).....The 3-4/4-6/6+ amounts will not be as far south as some people are thinking (especially the 3-4), however they almost definitely will remain south of our areas (NENJ/NYC/most of LI) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I just got back from work. Was wondering i live in Clifton NJ and was wanting to know when the first flakes will start and total amounts expected for this whole event. Just a general idea if anyone can help. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I don't think that's due to precip. Radar is more impressive elsewhere. Pressure change map was also helpful a couple of weeks ago (I think 2/2/15 storm) in forecasting more southerly storm track that kept NYC below freazing for almost all of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I just got back from work. Was wondering i live in Clifton NJ and was wanting to know when the first flakes will start and total amounts expected for this whole event. Just a general idea if anyone can help. Thanks! I posted some recent snow maps back a page or two, and I would say between 11-1am for you down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It will not be enough to help and it is very transient. yup and the trough is meh but that pressure change map is interesting for sure but I doubt it means much...like SG and DBC pointed out the low is really meh for anything major Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I posted some recent snow maps back a page or two, and I would say between 11-1am for you down there Thanks man. Il go check em out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Here's a very reliable model in this timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Our problem this whole winter (past four weeks) ... No blocking and the split flow over the Pacific as the storms enter Canada and the lower 48. The energy splits as it hits the lower 48 and without blocking, it has no time to consolidate. If we didn't have a split flow or a +NAO, we could have had a better winter, but with both of these against us, even threading the needle is incredibly hard. This is a very helpful quote to understanding what's been going on this winter. I mainly keep quiet and read what you guys have to say but just wanted to pop in and say thanks to you, Isentropic and others for keeping a cool head and sharing your expertise. Hopefully we get lucky over the next 4 weeks or so - looks like there will be plenty of cold air available at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Here's a very reliable model in this timeframe Do you think Orange County or Sullivan to your Northwest will get an inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It appears that the pressure change map has a bad glitch today. I looked at the past 10 hours of observations and that pressure decrease has been continually centered over WV...no movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Do you think Orange County or Sullivan to your Northwest will get an inch? No way lol I think we may see some flakes fly up here but anyone North of rockland is a dusting MAX! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 No way lol I think we may see some flakes fly up here but anyone North of rockland is a dusting MAX!Even Rockland looks like toast for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Even Rockland looks like toast for this one They have the best chance at a NW burb seeing a inch or so, as well as S westchester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Do you think Orange County or Sullivan to your Northwest will get an inch? No.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Between I-78 and I-80 will most likely be the cutoff point between flurries and light accumulating snowfall. Will be very surprised if this reaches any further north than I-80 in north Jersey honestly. Seen this setup before...Beware of the brick wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Between I-78 and I-80 will most likely be the cutoff point between flurries and light accumulating snowfall. Will be very surprised if this reaches any further north than I-80 in north Jersey honestly. Seen this setup before...Beware of the brick wall. So based on this comment i assume Clifton NJ is a miss for us....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/analysis/rapmeso/index.php?type=US-wvvor-25 this might put the tilt in your kilt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 3 hour pressure change map. Anyone hazard a guess as to why the pressure is falling so rapidly in WV? To my eyes, this is encouraging. I would hazard a guess that may be based on a surface station report which is in error. That is most definitely incorrect, at least with the value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/analysis/rapmeso/index.php?type=US-wvvor-25 this might put the tilt in your kilt DM, what do you think this storm is going to do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Snow being reported west of Philly. I think the virga isn't as big of an issue as some think and it's more a matter of the storm is simply too far south to greatly impact us, as it clouds over we will see DP's rise and with low temperatures the RH should rise quickly if temperatures can drop a few degrees (see what last night's RH was with -13 DP's) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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