UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 those are not in range yet. But looks okay for now. Do u have the rpm ? They are In range lol, precip is "suppose" to start around midnight... That's 8hrs from now.. They are WELL within range and all show the same thing.. An hour or 2 is NOT Gonna just shift each short term model 50 miles north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 People should probably wait another 5 or 6 hours before killing any shot at a minor snowfall overnight. No need to over-analyze everything to death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 People should probably wait another 5 or 6 hours before killing any shot at a minor snowfall overnight. No need to over-analyze everything to death. I don't doubt a minor snowfall especially for Long Island, but anyone expecting a high end advisory snowfall or more is gonna be disappointed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 I don't doubt a minor snowfall especially for Long Island, but anyone expecting a high end advisory snowfall or more is gonna be disappointed I think everyone from Rt.80 south sees at least 1-2"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Based off the B&W maps, the 18z RGEM looks to be < 5MM areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think everyone from Rt.80 south sees at least 1-2"... Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I've been barking up the same tree with you for 2 days now... U called for 6-12 last night and argued till u were blue, and you continue to discredit every model, I'm done with the convo, we will continue this in banter tomorrow after ALL the models bust for the better and nyc sees half a foot lolokay fair enough. I revised my forecast to 2-4 for the city and south. Ac to Dover 4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Wrf 12z model looks good for 2-4 nyc but I feel like half of that is virga! http://hp6.wright-weather.com/eastnmm.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 18z GFS initialized further North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The GFS is at least 20-30 miles North so far with the precip shield. Up to Toms River by 03z, was at ACY on 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Wrf 12z model looks good for 2-4 nyc but I feel like half of that is virga! http://hp6.wright-weather.com/eastnmm.shtml NMM and ARW Most the radar reflectivity falls as virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 And then right about when it looks like things will continue to nudge North, things hit a brick wall. Moderate precip up to about TTN, and that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 WWA for NYC. 2-4 with temps in teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The surface low has trended slower today on the Euro, NAM and now GFS, I wonder if that's hurting this from coming further North as the runs have been showing early improvements, only to end up drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 And then right about when it looks like things will continue to nudge North, things hit a brick wall. Moderate precip up to about TTN, and that's it. You mean the confluence continues to play a huge roll in suppressing this system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The surface low has trended slower today on the Euro, NAM and now GFS, I wonder if that's hurting this from coming further North as the runs have been showing early improvements, only to end up drier.To be honest, the slower trend should benefit us. It allows the confluence of the weekend storm to lift out, which should in turn allow the heights to pump out ahead of the current system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 You mean the confluence continues to play a huge roll in suppressing this system? the confluence is slowing it down. Eventually the precip should make it to our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 the confluence is slowing it down. Eventually the precip should make it to our region. That's opposite, the confluence is gonna prevent it from coming North, it may be slowing it down, but slower and further North do not coincide in this scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The obs down in the mid-atlantic thread continue to look encouraging. FWIW they are getting decent snowfall out of a radar that looks to be nothing more than virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The obs down in the mid-atlantic thread continue to look encouraging. FWIW they are getting decent snowfall out of a radar that looks to be nothing more than virga. Yea it's odd, the majority of the light precip on the far northern shield is all virga, yet the eastern reach of the storm seems to be reaching the ground with ease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Coming down nicely in Washington DC. The ground was bare a few hours ago. http://www.earthcam.com/usa/dc/washingtonmonument/?cam=wamo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 That's opposite, the confluence is gonna prevent it from coming North, it may be slowing it down, but slower and further North do not coincide in this scenarioeventually it will break down cause it's really trying to move northeast now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 eventually it will break down cause it's really trying to move northeast now. Ook lol. We'll know in the next couple hours with reports out of Philly as that eastern front is knocking on their doorstep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Where is the strong confluince here? That ULL is hauling northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Where is the strong confluince here? That ULL is hauling northeast. What's suppressing it then? Seems like it's dragging the storm east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Where is the strong confluince here? That ULL is hauling northeast. Brought this up last night...Models may be over-doing the confluence over the area... BUT http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_sfc.php?inv=0&t=cur that H may be what's wrong and what's aiding whatever confluence is there helping suppress the system..dont know though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The confluence is not totally the issue as to why the precip shield has not really expanded with the low ticking north...its more the low is not exceptionally well developed, it takes time for the precip shield to get well developed away from the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Where is the strong confluince here? That ULL is hauling northeast. Will this lead to moisture being moving further north than progged as the confluence is having less of an effect? This is confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The confluence is not totally the issue as to why the precip shield has not really expanded with the low ticking north...its more the low is not exceptionally well developed, it takes time for the precip shield to get well developed away from the center. Yes, most models have it around 1000mb early tomorrow morning, not the strongest low pressure system to ever hit the area. But it looks to have a direct moisture feed from the Gulf and the precip shield is quite large currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 What's suppressing it then? Seems like it's dragging the storm east What's suppressing it then? Seems like it's dragging the storm east That's the point it isn't really being suppressed" reports of snow on md/pa border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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