UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 your not supposed to look at the 4k nam for precipitation shield. It's always broken up and always less than what it really is! HRRR and RAP are in line with that 4k nam, light precip falling between 2-4am then pulling out, a couple hours of moderate precip for Long Island and points south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looking at the radar trends, the moderate precip will have a rough time moving north of Maryland. See red line. Damn you and your rational thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looking at the radar trends, the moderate precip will have a rough time moving north of Maryland. See red line.although I agree with it, the atmosphere is moisten up quite a bit depicted by yanks images of water loop above. And once the low gets to about Delmarva it will shoot up northeast instead of ene, expanding the shield to at or around Sussex county NJ. Still not a major event but more of a nuisance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 although I agree with it, the atmosphere is moisten up quite a bit depicted by yanks images of water loop above. And once the low gets to about Delmarva it will shoot up northeast instead of ene, expanding the shield to at or around Sussex county NJ. Still not a major event but more of a nuisance! It's not gonna make it to Delmarva dude, it's exits the coast way south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 If it showed 12" you would u remember I don't like the nam all together. I do look at it for shyts and giggles though. I never look at the 4k nam though cause it's precipitation shield is always smaller than the actual radar images so why even bother! Rgem is tempting to look at this point until later tonight when I'll start checking the rap and hrrr... 4knam=useless unless your looking at where the heaviest echoes will drop in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks like KNYC is close to 0.20" on the 12z EPS mean, give or take a few hundreths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Uptons map looks even worse. 1-2 for CT 2-3 for NYC LI, just updated it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It's not gonna make it to Delmarva dude, it's exits the coast way southyour right it does exit just off the cape Hatteras region. Still once that happens it will tilt it northeast not ene as its moving at this point. I still think we can get a few inches around the city. Your lucky if u get a coating up there that's how tight the gradients are! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 My thinking right now. I believe it will almost "hit a wall" once north of the 3-4 line.....Obviously this could be adjusted by several miles one way or the other (most likely 3-4 is a bit too far north especially on the western portion of the map, but I don't think the snowfall amounts will end up being cut off so much on the west side necessarily, as they are from south to north) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Does anyone have the model rpm in hand? That particular model did really well with the so called "blizzard"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 ImageUploadedByTapatalk1424119652.057254.jpg My thinking right now nice map. Seems totally legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 your right it does exit just off the cape Hatteras region. Still once that happens it will tilt it northeast not ene as its moving at this point. I still think we can get a few inches around the city. Your lucky if u get a coating up there that's how tight the gradients are!It's a perfect place to eject for us. I could see potentially some higher QPF in this area from a more explosive development over the Gulf Stream. In addition, IL pointed out the water vapor which is showing our weekend storm scooting out of NS in a hurry. There could be some surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Uptons map looks even worse. 1-2 for CT 2-3 for NYC LI, just updated it appears They are going with 0.15-0.20" LE over most of the area and that might be generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looking at winds (@ Surf, 1000, 700, 500, 200mb) - All upper air is moving east and actually turning more southeast near New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yea last i saw it was still very good looking for this storm. 12Z runs of the RPM had it crossing right over the BM, with 2-4 for CT 4-6 for NYC and LI I believe with some 6-8 random small stripes...and from qpf that looked to be around 10:1 ratio. That was the last time I checked...its usually the last to catch on wouldn't be surprised at all if the 15 and 18Z runs jumped south. I took a trip up to Boston so I'm on my phone can't check it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It's a perfect place to eject for us. I could see potentially some higher QPF in this area from a more explosive development over the Gulf Stream. In addition, IL pointed out the water vapor which is showing our weekend storm scooting out of NS in a hurry. There could be some surprises.thats all I'm saying about this storm. Snowski told me once and it's true, expect nothing and hope for a surprise few inches. That's why tonight I'm going to sleep early and wake up around 6 for work so hopefully I got a few surprises by than. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looking at the radar trends, the moderate precip will have a rough time moving north of Maryland. See red line. agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 They are going with 0.15-0.20" LE over most of the area and that might be generous. I agree with the way this things been goin. Enjoy what you can get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yea last i saw it was still very good looking for this storm. 12Z runs of the RPM had it crossing right over the BM, with 2-4 for CT 4-6 for NYC and LI I believe with some 6-8 random small stripes...and from qpf that looked to be around 10:1 ratio. That was the last time I checked...its usually the last to catch on wouldn't be surprised at all if the 15 and 18Z runs jumped south. I took a trip up to Boston so I'm on my phone can't check it now.[/quotes] Ur in Boston? That's cool man be safe and take some pix for us n post them on the pictures section. Anyone got a link to the rpm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The rpm is not real weather model. Its an in house product typically used by media outlets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The trajectory will be more north as the confluence continues to move out thus why models are extending the precip north into NJ and NE PA. A general 2-4" still looks good even around the city but there will be a sharp cutoff somewhere probably just north of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The trajectory will be more north as the confluence continues to move out thus why models are extending the precip north into NJ and NE PA. A general 2-4" still looks good even around the city but there will be a sharp cutoff somewhere probably just north of the city. snowski usually negative gives me 2-4. Book it man I'm with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 u remember I don't like the nam all together. I do look at it for shyts and giggles though. I never look at the 4k nam though cause it's precipitation shield is always smaller than the actual radar images so why even bother! Rgem is tempting to look at this point until later tonight when I'll start checking the rap and hrrr... 4knam=useless unless your looking at where the heaviest echoes will drop in. Ok well here's arguable the best short term models there is HRRR is barley more than a some light snow and RAP only has about 2-4hrs of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 HRRR is good inside of 6-8 hours. Modeled precip doesn't begin for another 11 hours for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 0.2" on the ground in Arlington already. This when snow wasn't set to begin falling there until 4PM per mid-atlantic posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 HRRR is good inside of 6-8 hours. Modeled precip doesn't begin for another 11 hours for NYC. It's not like the HRRR is showing something different lol, HRRR, rap, 4knam etc etc etc all show the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It's not like the HRRR is showing something different lol, HRRR, rap, 4knam etc etc etc all show the same thing.those are not in range yet. But looks okay for now. Do u have the rpm ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 latest HRRR really does show precip making better progress further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 latest HRRR really does show precip making better progress further northlooks and feels frigid out there. Currently 20 degrees outside of my job and it looks like those clouds are really rolling in. I'll be mad happy if we get 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 latest HRRR really does show precip making better progress further north The above image of the HRRR I posted is at 5:00am... Precip barely makes it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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