Zelocita Weather Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 First flakes just around the beltway now in VA/MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 18 and balmy outside i will post in the pics forum some nice shots of the L.I sound tomorrow featuring little neck bay in the morning hopefully with fresh snow cover i would bet it has more ice than last year.Great walking weather guys the scenery should be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Simple, if the phase had occured over the deep South this system would have come much further West. The Northern jet is left over the lakes and doesn't come through here until Wednesday while the southern jet is out East of the benchmark. I should clarify I should never say IT CANT . I don`t think it does . Any system that phases and NEG tilts west of the MISS usually cuts .All I am saying is I have seen the Euro do this 3 times so far in the mid range . It cut the BLIZZARD in it`s day 8 It originally cut the IVT storm 6 days out and it cut todays system 6 days out . I like the look of the GFS NEG EPO induced patterns tends to send HP through the lakes and I think the Euro bias is to NEG tilt these to early .So if it`s POS tilted it goes underneath Maybe the GFS will be wrong , which means I will be too . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I have to say that the WV loop certainly doesn't look like this is going to be squashed Colder cloud tops starting to advect into Western PA and SW NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Though the SREFS plumes show 7-10" for most areas near here, the NCEP's probability of precip map tell a different story (again, I do not believe the SREFs one bit, as I've said, I just am wondering how they could be so off and add to the snow amounts while every other model cuts them drastically) : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 How could all of rockland and southern orange be .50-1, but the tz bridge north under .50? Better yet, why the extra significant figures? At least he put the 0 in front of the decimal point. Most don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Nonsense. Not to get into some extended debate on the topic but I did just see your reply and wanted to comment. The Law of Averages, luck or random chance, and the idea of things evening out are very significant factors in how things come together in the universe...note the snowless 70's & 80's in this region...after those years, would it seem reasonable to anticipate the avalanche of snow the region has seen in the last decade and a half? Things even out over time...that's what climatology is...a series of deviations from the mean...but over time...the mean is generally satisfied & fulfilled. When I went for a rather small amount of snow for NYC this season, the verbiage in my commentary gave a nod to this concept; i.e. that the city had been amazingly lucky for many years in a row, snow wise, and, eventually that luck would have to run out. Who would not agree that there have been an exceptional number of chances for NYC to cash in on some big snows this winter...but they simply have been quite unlucky...it is not as if it was a warm & dry winter...and nearby Boston has seen practically 100 inches of snow already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I have to say that the WV loop certainly doesn't look like this is going to be squashed Colder cloud tops starting to advect into Western PA and SW NY Yeah, it really doesn't.....I'll say that I don't think the DC area really busts too bad.....i think they do ok.....even further north, but once past the philly area, or just south, is where I feel it'll have a hard time coming down hard and will be squashed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Better yet, why the extra significant figures? At least he put the 0 in front of the decimal point. Most don't. I put Southern in front of Orange but left it off for Rockland and Westchester because I thought it was understood as those counties were lumped on the same line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Bernie Rayno seems to think that the models have been elongating the shortwave too much and that as the energy drops through the plains it will pump heights enough to bring the precip shield back North. He's not ruling out 3-4" even for NE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I feel like the NAM has a pretty decent depiction of the H7 moisture field at this point, and if you use Dupage's RAP mesoanalysis, you see the dry air really getting eaten up over NJ. Another decent sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Not to get into some extended debate on the topic but I did just see your reply and wanted to comment. The Law of Averages, luck or random chance, and the idea of things evening out are very significant factors in how things come together in the universe...note the snowless 70's & 80's in this region...after those years, would it seem reasonable to anticipate the avalanche of snow the region has seen in the last decade and a half? Things even out over time...that's what climatology is...a series of deviations from the mean...but over time...the mean is generally satisfied & fulfilled. When I went for a rather small amount of snow for NYC this season, the verbiage in my commentary gave a nod to this concept; i.e. that the city had been amazingly lucky for many years in a row, snow wise, and, eventually that luck would have to run out. Who would not agree that there have been an exceptional number of chances for NYC to cash in on some big snows this winter...but they simply have been quite unlucky...it is not as if it was a warm & dry winter...and nearby Boston has seen practically 100 inches of snow already. No offense, but that's not how probability works. The law of averages is a real phenomenon but does not apply to individual instances. See RUs excellent explanation back in the thread. And I'm a professional data scientist so hopefully that carries some weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Dew Points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 And I'm a professional data scientist so hopefully that carries some weight. It does carry great weight. What elements of my post are in error? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The SREF mean look a nudge drier but most people are still 0.25"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It does carry great weight. What elements of my post are in error? Obviously there are intricacies of the weather that make one event to another not entirely independent (eg the pattern has established itself to hit BOS harder than nyc). But the idea of something being "due" is a mirage and a function of our tendency as people to find patterns where they may not exist. Like if someone is a career 270 hitter over a large sample and is hitting 240 at the all star break... He is not likely to hit 300 the second half (ie due to get hot) to meet the average... The likelihood he'll get a hit his next time at bat is 27%, not higher because he's underperforming. I'm shopping for my infant but can elaborate further later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yup. the SREF mean is drier but the 0.25"+ contour still makes it NW of MMU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 What is mmu? What's coastal Monmouth looking at by sandy hook. Do you think 4-6" is far fetched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 What is mmu? What's coastal Monmouth looking at by sandy hook. Do you think 4-6" is far fetched Morristown. 6" is a stretch. 4" is just about right I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 UPTON .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...A FAST MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW WILL BE PICKED UP BY ANAMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...SENDING THE SYSTEMACROSS THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTICCOAST TUE MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING WITH THE NORTHERNEXTENT OF THE LOW TRACK THE LAST WEEK...BUT THE 00Z GUIDANCEAPPEARS TO HAVE LOCKED ON TO A LOW TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THEBENCHMARK 40N...70W ON TUE. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP THE FORECAST AREAON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PCPN SHIED WITH LIQUID AMOUNTSRANGING FROM A TENTH INLAND TO AROUND A QUARTER INCH AT THE COAST.MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GOOD SNOW GROWTH WITH HIGH SNOW RATIOS.USING A 15 TO 1 RATIO...ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSSMUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES NEAR THECOAST... Now you just need .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Obviously there are intricacies of the weather that make one event to another not entirely independent (eg the pattern has established itself to hit BOS harder than nyc). But the idea of something being "due" is a mirage and a function of our tendency as people to find patterns where they may not exist. Like if someone is a career 270 hitter over a large sample and is hitting 240 at the all star break... He is not likely to hit 300 the second half (ie due to get hot) to meet the average... The likelihood he'll get a hit his next time at bat is 27%, not higher because he's underperforming. I'm shopping for my infant but can elaborate further later. Given your educational background, I have little doubt you have a good deal more insight into the topic than I have...but I don't really feel that the above post makes your case or debunks mine. I understand you are busy; you certainly can follow up later. As for the allusion to baseball...I am reminded of the coach who would always say..."you can be hitting .300 at the All Star Break...but if you are a .260 hitter...that is what you will be batting come the end of the year"...i.e. testimony to the concept of the Law of Averages and things evening out over the course of time...everything "reaching its level"...as one would say colloquially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Upton, as fickle as the summer wind, first 4-6 inches, then back track to an inch for my area, now it appears that they will raise amounts yet again, all this in less than 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Flurries leaving my office in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Flurries have arrived in D.C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Flurries leaving my office in DC. Beat me to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The Euro ensembles aren't terrible. Look like the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Wow, 12 hours to go from DC to NYC....slow moving snowline.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Not to get into some extended debate on the topic but I did just see your reply and wanted to comment. The Law of Averages, luck or random chance, and the idea of things evening out are very significant factors in how things come together in the universe...note the snowless 70's & 80's in this region...after those years, would it seem reasonable to anticipate the avalanche of snow the region has seen in the last decade and a half? Things even out over time...that's what climatology is...a series of deviations from the mean...but over time...the mean is generally satisfied & fulfilled. When I went for a rather small amount of snow for NYC this season, the verbiage in my commentary gave a nod to this concept; i.e. that the city had been amazingly lucky for many years in a row, snow wise, and, eventually that luck would have to run out. Who would not agree that there have been an exceptional number of chances for NYC to cash in on some big snows this winter...but they simply have been quite unlucky...it is not as if it was a warm & dry winter...and nearby Boston has seen practically 100 inches of snow already. Great post !! It's funny that with all of the studies of the pattern leading up to winter and the positive trends we saw early on translated to a very wintry pattern but not necessarily a very snow one for certain areas.....and a VERY, VERY snowy one for others. Simple facts like you mentioned, such as things evening out over time, are constant....."the change is unchanged".....and although almost everyone predicted a very snowy winter for NYC area (myself included), it's funny that NYC will end up having a frigid winter and an average snow winter but not necessarily very snowy. As you also said, there have been a LOT of storms that could have all dumped on NYC, didn't. They could have spares Boston, but didn't. And last year, the opposite. Interesting how it works out. As a side note.....as our snowy period began, and as I've spoken of, I started making my amateur-ish snow "forecasts/calls" primarily based on just using what is in front of me (certain models).....without all of the weather knowledge that so many of you have (I know the basics and enough to get by with the terminology, but really just a fraction of what many of you do).....my calls have been very good. I'm not saying this to pat myself on the back, but my point is that many times even pro forecasters and meteorologists really overanalyze things and look at the impressive dynamics and setup and not necessarily how it will directly impact our areas with snow. Models have been bad with these northern stream systems, yes, but not all terrible and some even fairly good. Stuff to think about..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Great post !! Thank you Winters Grasp; thank you very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The 18z NAM is bumping North with the precip shield. If nothing else, the bleeding has stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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