SnoSki14 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Just watch the radar you'll know soon enough who is right or wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 GFS really pounds the mid Atlantic over the next 10 days days ,almost all of Virginia, Kentucky area see 12+, we can't catch a breakthat will change a billion times until it actually happens. But suppression is my depression right now considering how cold and dry it's been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Lets wait until tomorrow to make a call for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Watch the 5340 height contour over the next several hours. That's where the GFS cuts off the moderate precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Lets wait until tomorrow to make a call for this storm. It moves in tonight and will be over by the time most people wake up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It moves in tonight and will be over by the time most people wake up. another reason im not sure why people are freaking out between 1-3 or 2-4... it happens in like 5 hours while people are sleeping - who cares... people have to relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 This place has exploded.....such tension.....we really need a storm to relax the mood.....not even anything huge.....just a solid 6-10 incher for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Louisville KY doing very well...pretty much mod-heavy snow the last few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 This place has exploded.....such tension.....we really need a storm to relax the mood.....not even anything huge.....just a solid 6-10 incher for everyone I remember how much love there was on here 24hrs before the blizzard that never was (excluding Long Island). Straight downhill since Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Comparing current radar to the 12z RGEM it looks to be running about an hour behind, other than that, it's pretty spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Calm down dude. Stop bolding your posts and writing in all caps and then people will take you seriously. Packer . I have been on here for 5 years , many take me seriously . The Redsox #$%^& , now everyone knows I am serious . When someone does the leg work and posts a model show a modicum of appreciation and say thank you for sharing that . Instead of the standard Rube response of " that`s not going to happen " . I did not write the algo , that QPF field is not mine . It is a highly skilled score Global model that people appreciate seeing . This is about a 2- 3 inch system for KNYC and if that busts to 1 , it `s really not a big deal . Sharing model data is what we do here . If you want to be taken seriously here then show some courtesy . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Comparing current radar to the 12z RGEM it looks to be running about an hour behind, other than that, it's pretty spot on.Yea I agree. Rap and hrrr nailed the last storm. After 5pm today lets see what they say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yea I agree. Rap and hrrr nailed the last storm. After 5pm today lets see what they say They nailed it inside of 6 hours. That won't occur until about 9pm tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Gefs seem a bit wetter for central nj and close to .25 for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Watch for reports near Philly around midnight. If they having nothing by then it will be a pretty easy call. The wettest models bring in measurable around 10PM for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I remember how much love there was on here 24hrs before the blizzard that never was (excluding Long Island). Straight downhill since At least we got 7 from that one and 10.5 front the following one. Even though reached winter average of 30 I agree that it feels.like we missed out.on everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 12z JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 For the city the best shot of snow will be between 06z-12z Tuesday.... Will be a lot of cliff diving at 10pm when the preciep shield is south of Phl. We get a push north after mid night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Honestly this should be named feb 17 bust. I don't see anymore than inch here in NYC. Staten Island could be as far as the precip gets to at least the moderate moisture. It is too dry for the storm to move its moisture up here. If this was a day later it would have done it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 For the city the best shot of snow will be between 06z-12z Tuesday.... Will be a lot of cliff diving at 10pm when the preciep shield is south of Phl. We get a push north after mid night The 12z NAM had 0.10"+ already at PHL by 06z. Comes in around 02z. That's why I picked midnight as the cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Would think this is a pretty good sign. I would say ahead of schedule. And the DC radar appears to be slowly improving. 18/-7 at CHO. Can verify snow on ground in the city. There's a dusting on the ground at the moment, and it's coming down at a light-moderate rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Would think this is a pretty good sign. I would say ahead of schedule. And the DC radar appears to be slowly improving. When its this cold you sometimes do not have an extended virga period, it can reach the ground fairly quickly, the 2004 clipper did that, I thought we'd see virga forever based on soundings and surface RH and it took about 1 hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The 12z GFS is predicting ratios of 16:1 for MMU. 1.44" of snow on 0.09" LE. LGA has ratios of only slightly better than 10:1. 1.4" of snow on 0.13" LE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Watch for reports near Philly around midnight. If they having nothing by then it will be a pretty easy call. The wettest models bring in measurable around 10PM for them. Agreed . To often we see these .1 s and .2`s trying to fight through confluence just get overwhelmed and then shunted S . There is no lift to overcome it . Not sure anymore in my 2-3 . I could go to 1-2 and still bust , Confluence kills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Maybe the euro will deliver a foot plus for us...LOL imagine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The Euro has accumulating snows beginning in DC at 18z or 1PM EST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Another tick South by the Euro, about 20 miles or so. Unfortunatly that makes a huge difference when you're on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 The Euro has accumulating snows beginning in DC at 18z or 1PM EST. So now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Moderate snows stay mostly south and east of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Euro has .1 to nyc by tomorrow morning 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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