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Feb 17 Miller A Threat


Zelocita Weather

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12z Summary (2/16)

 

NYC Area QPF  (NW - SE Gradient)

 

 

SREF : 0.25 - 0.50

NAM :  0.25 - 0.40

RGEM: 0.10 - 0.20

GFS : 0.10 - 0.20

GGEM : 0.05 - 0.15

UKMET : 0.25 - 0.40

I'd like to learn for myself without asking the board how I find QPF for my area KMSV.

 

The Ukmet is showing .25 to .50 NW to SE I', trying to find the numerical for KMSV.

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This storm is reminding me of the series of March storms last year (3/3, 17, and 25) that were modeled to give NYC metro at least a few to several inches 2-3 days out and all of them essentiall vaporized for anyone north of about 276/195 in PA/NJ, due to suppression by the "polar vortex" (lot more use of that phrase last winter, lol)?  Abnormally cold/dry air is tough to overcome...

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I love how the Rgem is now the go to model for everyone.

Meanwhile, I've been saying it for years and years and people/mets ripped me.

Either way, in my experience, the Rgem specializes in northern stream systems and also inside of 24 hours.

People are going a little too crazy with it lately. I won't take the Rgem seriously until 0z tonight and especially 6z tomorrow morning.

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Does anyone else think advisories should be posted because morning commute could be hectic?

Advisory criteria for snow is 3" and right now 3" seems like the exception rather than the rule. And we're quickly moving towards the end of February, not the beginning of the season where people pretend they have never driven in snow before.

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