Doorman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 DM, are you more than a hobbyist? WKD No.. not at all I just get sick to my stomach how people can be so emotionally attached to a model run There is so much great info available online anyone that wants to make their own decent forecast can do it! if you are smart enough to be logged on here you sure as hell are smart enough to use the links available and then come to your own conclusions that's it...use the links---- blend the guidance don't hug any one piece of info or just one forecaster snow or no snow this is one mean anomaly for a rainstorm to go down in the metro--imo http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std_f144_us.html dm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015021118/gfs-ens_z500_mslp_us_27.png three options on the table with the 18z GEFS Ens it keeps NYC in the cold sector throughout this threat http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=T2m&runtime=2015021118&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=266.6666666666667 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2015021118&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=266.6666666666667 thanks for the positive input.... stay on topic now!!!!! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Finally had time to review all the guidance from the last 4 suites... Of the 'three' potentials over the next 10 days, this is the only one I think has a shot of delivering a significant storm to the NYC metro... Won't bite on it yet (cynic by nature), but even I can't deny this one has some legs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 What about the rest of the area? lol long island, Connecticut, do they look to cash in on the next 3 events possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 What about the rest of the area? lol long island, Connecticut, do they look to cash in on the next 3 events possibly. 2/12 0z NAM: Saturday night-Sunday: Bridgeport: 0.33" Groton: 0.29" Islip: 0.36" New Haven: 0.31" Westhampton: 0.45" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Nice front end thump before turning over to ice and rain for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 00z GFS Light snow moves in early Tuesday, possibly late Monday night. Snow becomes moderate to heavy by afternoon. Tuesday night the interior flips to ice and the immediate coast to rain. Storm lasts well into Wednesday. Most people over to plain rain by then. Looks like 6"+ for just about everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 00z GFS Light snow moves in early Tuesday, possibly late Monday night. Snow becomes moderate to heavy by afternoon. Tuesday night the interior flips to ice and the immediate coast to rain. Storm lasts well into Wednesday. Most people over to plain rain by then. Looks like 6"+ for just about everyone. Solid front end thump for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GGEM has a great front end thump before turning to ice and then rain for the coast for next week. Surface line stays near NYC. Good hit just to the north and west of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 0z GEFS has all snow for the metro area. The indies are mixed with good solutions and bad ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png I think this map speaks for itself..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GGEM has a great front end thump before turning to ice and then rain for the coast for next week. Surface line stays near NYC. Good hit just to the north and west of the area. As long as it stays sheared out and less consolidated then it would be a decent hit. However again the dreaded AO makes me think otherwise and I'd feel much more comfortable if the AO were to slide down to at least neutral for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Wow, the Euro has a massive bomb. Inland areas get crushed. NYC gets snow to an icestorm. Surface temps never go above freezing for NYC. 850's warm up slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 2 inches of ice for nyc on this run. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 00z Precip images, 850s do warm up but surface remains cold..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 192 hr run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 2 inches of ice for nyc on this run. Yikes. It's mostly ice for the NW burbs until you get 50 miles NW of the city. Then E LI cleans up once the coastal takes over. It will also never verify. The storm took a perfect track for a bad ice storm. Just a slight shift West and it's rain and East and it's snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 According to that map above I've surpassed Boston in terms of fictional snowfall so take that SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Nice QPF output from the WPC for Days 6/7... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looks like this day 6&7 QPF map would suggest a more eastern/non cutter solution. Such a track would likely keep us from transitioning to rain. It's still many days away though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblind Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Is it still showing on the latest models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Gfs looks to becoming in further south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 According to that map above I've surpassed Boston in terms of fictional snowfall so take that SNE. You should consider a new eyeglass prescription. Those colors can be a bit confusing, but it is an increasing gradient from south to north. Either way, the map doesn't look right to me. Another 4' + in Essex Co, MA would be pretty epic indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Great pna ridge on the gfs and surface low of southern Georgia. Lower mid Atlantic snow storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The ridge is coming in stronger on the GFS so the energy isn't digging as far southwest. The GFS has been flipping back and forth for several runs in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Big hit for the DC folks, great to see for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GFS is way southeast of the 6z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Beautiful Miller A. Dca crushed Hrs 132 surface low over eastern nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Coastal hugger. Big hit Tuesday but you can see that the coast will eventually have precip type issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Big snowstorm for the area Tuesday night...heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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