Guest Pamela Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Canadien brings light snow into the area around midnight...become moderate towards 5 AM...and tapers back to some light snows shortly thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 GFS looks in line with the nam, southern solution, even NE gets the shaft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I hope we aren't going into a pattern where southern sliders will rule the day, just like last March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 GFS, NAM, RGEM look absolutly identical, gonna scrape the nyc area with maybe a few hours of moderate snows for Long Island, NE doesn't see much, looks like eastern Long Island has the best shot out of everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightknights Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 RUMG watch!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The 12z GFS is even on the dry side for the DC crew. Under 0.50" for the NW burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 GFS, NAM, RGEM look absolutly identical, gonna scrape the nyc area with maybe a few hours of moderate snows for Long Island, NE doesn't see much, looks like eastern Long Island has the best shot out of everyone Light snow event. Hoping for a bust in a good way . Models have been terrible this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Light snow event. Hoping for a bust in a good way . Models have been terrible this year. We can only hope.....but this close to the event, certain models have been very good actually. It's our expectations and refusal to believe them that leaves us disappointed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 This will just be a dusting north of 78. Cold and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 What's the monthly total up there so far? They haven't done that badly up there because of a few systems that mostly slid to the North of NYC. Im at 50.2" for the year and thats about average for me. Im about 12 miles NE of the Monument so I would figure they are close to their average ( 55-60") as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Disagree with the RGEM at this range at your own peril. It's become the new Dr. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The problem here is a missed phase. On the 12z GFS the miss occurs around hr 42 and the southern stream ends up southeast of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Disagree with the RGEM at this range at your own peril. It's become the new Dr. No. It has had gaffs this year, I'm suspicious of it this event because its so low down in DC...I'm having a hard time seeing that happen...it may be too suppressed on this down there, up here its not tremendously different from other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Disagree with the RGEM at this range at your own peril. It's become the new Dr. No. Correct. Only this time, it's not just disagreeing with the RGEM.....it'd be disagreeing with just a it everything except the SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It has had gaffs this year, I'm suspicious of it this event because its so low down in DC...I'm having a hard time seeing that happen...it may be too suppressed on this down there, up here its not tremendously different from other models Models are getting drier also for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It has had gaffs this year, I'm suspicious of it this event because its so low down in DC...I'm having a hard time seeing that happen...it may be too suppressed on this down there, up here its not tremendously different from other models Honestly I can't think of one event it didn't really lead the way on. Regardless, more often than not, other models have trended towards it in this range rather than vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Geez.. This place has become more of a history class then anything..Who wants to talk about Boston and now the south getting slammed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 One more decent southeast shift and DC is under 0.50" LE and NYC is under 0.10" LE. And with all the dry air to the North I wouldn't be shocked if nobody saw anything North of I-78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 One more decent southeast shift and DC is under 0.50" LE and NYC is under 0.10" LE. And with all the dry air to the North I wouldn't be shocked if nobody saw anything North of I-78. Same my standards are pretty low at this point. Any other storms to track before spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 What's the monthly total up there so far? They haven't done that badly up there because of a few systems that mostly slid to the North of NYC. I was able to find the link to the data from nearby Port Jervis / elevation of the station is 198 meters or around 650 feet...it says they have received 14.0 inches of snow this February and 31.4 inches of snow for the 2014-15 winter...though the data from December 2014 looks suspiciously low. http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/COOP/cat.phtml?station=PJRN6&year=2015&network=NY_COOP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 One more decent southeast shift and DC is under 0.50" LE and NYC is under 0.10" LE. And with all the dry air to the North I wouldn't be shocked if nobody saw anything North of I-78. It could easily shift 10-20 miles north or south. A 10 mile shift is model noise. Not a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The problem here is a missed phase. On the 12z GFS the miss occurs around hr 42 and the southern stream ends up southeast of the benchmark. and the lead vort keeps the height field suppressed so the southern stream can't climb the ladder. Subtle differences, huge consquences in sensible weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It could easily shift 10-20 miles north or south. A 10 mile shift is model noise. Not a trend. All of the models have shifted further southeast today and are drier. Lay off the wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I was able to find the link to the data from nearby Port Jervis / elevation of the station is 198 meters or around 650 feet...it says they have received 14.0 inches of snow this February and 31.4 inches of snow for the 2014-15 winter...though the data from December 2014 looks suspiciously low. http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/COOP/cat.phtml?station=PJRN6&year=2015&network=NY_COOP 31" in Port jervis is a low number for them...I believe their lowest snowfall winter was 25" in 1972-73 but I'm guessing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Add the 12z GGEM to the pile Barely anything measurable for NYC and nothing North of Rt. 78. Even Philly looks to be barely 0.10"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Add the 12z GGEM to the pile Barely anything measurable for NYC and nothing North of Rt. 78. Even Philly looks to be barely 0.10"+ There is a chance I think this ends up producing virtually nothing, the soundings show tons of mid-level dry air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The GGEM gives us a dusting on Wednesday night from the arctic boundary swinging through the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 There is a chance I think this ends up producing virtually nothing, the soundings show tons of mid-level dry air I think this is going to end up shafting just about everyone North of extreme southern NJ. And they aren't going to get anywhere near what it looked like a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 There is a chance I think this ends up producing virtually nothing, the soundings show tons of mid-level dry air I said the exact same thing last night and people lost their minds lol... Wouldn't be surprised if most of the Northern precip shield falls as virga due to the strong confluence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 We can't buy a legit threat here, absolutely ridiculous. How's thunderstorm season looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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