IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 We all agree that this map is a bit underdone, and my location isn't even on this map because I'm in the Mt. Holly CWA, but if you drew the lines West I would fall right on the line between 30-35" and 35-40". NYC on this map averages 20-25" or 25-30" for the northern boroughs. Sitting here at 29.75" is certainly not a bad seasonable average, and I never said that it was. But if it doesn't snow for the rest of the Winter I will still be about 5-10" under season average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Even at 1803' on top of High Point...I gravely doubt they have a mean February snowfall much above 18 or 20 inches.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 You should not but sometimes you show your bias when you are reporting to the general board. When I give a model PBP I cover the whole area. Again, I don't understand the obsession with NYC, particularly from posters that live further away from there then I do, but whatever floats your boat. In past years that wasn't necessarily the case, but I realized that I needed to be a more well rounded poster and a lot of people have called me the most improved poster this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yes, but that was a 2 foot gradient; not a 2 inch one. The gradient was big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Even at 1803' on top of High Point...I gravely doubt they have a mean February snowfall much above 18 or 20 inches.... What's the monthly total up there so far? They haven't done that badly up there because of a few systems that mostly slid to the North of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The gradient was big Not every storm that slides to the South of NYC is comparable to 2/5/10. That was an insane cutoff that I hope we will never see again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 What's the monthly total up there so far? They haven't done that badly up there because of a few systems that mostly slid to the North of NYC. The NWS cooperative at Sussex has 11.3" so far this February...they are obviously much lower (around 400'). I can't find anything immediately for High Point...not even sure if they have been reporting regularly this winter. http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/COOP/cat.phtml?station=SUXN4&network=NJ_COOP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Not every storm that slides to the South of NYC is comparable to 2/5/10. That was an insane cutoff that I hope we will never see again. 0 for Manhattan, 2 inches here and 7 inches in Staten Island lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Updated map for the Upton CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Some accumulations from that storm: ACY: 18.2" EWR: 0.4" NYC: Trace PHL: 28.5" Awful memories! I remember the radar just repeatedly falling apart around SI while I eagerly awaited in Manhattan. It was then I realized the power of confluence! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The best way to describe the GFS over the next two weeks is cold and dry followed by warm and wet. Classic pattern shift as the battle begins between the cold air holding strong over Canada and the warmer air starting to surge North. Cold and dry for 2 weeks, though obviously not ideal while likely allow for a few chances that dont show up till a few days before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 We all agree that this map is a bit underdone, and my location isn't even on this map because I'm in the Mt. Holly CWA, but if you drew the lines West I would fall right on the line between 30-35" and 35-40". NYC on this map averages 20-25" or 25-30" for the northern boroughs. Sitting here at 29.75" is certainly not a bad seasonable average, and I never said that it was. But if it doesn't snow for the rest of the Winter I will still be about 5-10" under season average. Not sure how accurate that map is exactly. Last year I had 74 inches, the prior year, 67 inches and am currently at 54 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The best way to describe the GFS over the next two weeks is cold and dry followed by warm and wet. Classic pattern shift as the battle begins between the cold air holding strong over Canada and the warmer air starting to surge North. Then this MAY be our last chance to pad our stats. Then again one of the cutters could start as accumulating sniw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightknights Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'll go with dusting max for the NYC area if any snow falls at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'll go with dusting max for the NYC area if any snow falls at all Good thing you're not a met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Then this MAY be our last chance to pad our stats. Then again one of the cutters could start as accumulating sniw Looking at the pattern with the +PNA not breaking down for an extremely long time, forget about any cutters bringing rain for the next 4 weeks. I think our first warm cutter comes 3/17-23 time frame and finishes off winter and any snow pack. I think pattern shift comes week 4. One other thing, the EURO is complete crap and useless showing this panel below: http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015021600!!/ No chance this is correct. I bet we see a 8-14 inch snowstorm on the 12Z for this upcoming Sunday with our pattern supporting that instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Not sure how accurate that map is exactly. Last year I had 74 inches, the prior year, 67 inches and am currently at 54 inches. I think one needs at least 20 years worth of records to get some general sense of the average weather at any given location... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It's amazing how this event was first modeled as an inland runner, than a coastal hugger, than a benchmark hit and now a southern hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Some accumulations from that storm: ACY: 18.2" EWR: 0.4" NYC: Trace PHL: 28.5" 14" on the north end of Philadelphia to 28.5" on the south end of Philadelphia, 17-18 miles as the crow files - sick gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It's amazing how this event was first modeled as an inland runner, than a coastal hugger, than a benchmark hit and now a southern hit. It lends credence to the idea that until storm A has run its course on affecting the pattern, storm B cannot be properly modeled. Saturday night's storm is doing an incredible job suppressing heights off the mid Atlantic coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 12z RGEM.....even less around the city than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Gfs going to be pretty dry this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 .1 to NYC and .25 to Phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Geez.. This place has become more of a history class then anything.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Mt. Holly playing it low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 1-3" looks good for NYC, I-80 and Long Island. 3-5" south of I-195. Another shafting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 1-3" looks good for NYC, I-80 and Long Island. 3-5" south of I-195. Another shafting. Pretty incredible how every big threat has either been a tick north, south, east and west. It doesn't even seem possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 1-3" looks good for NYC, I-80 and Long Island. 3-5" south of I-195. Another shafting. I would go 1-3 all the way to ocean county. Radar will be painful to watch for folks along 195. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The HRRR up to 15 hours has significant snow accumulated west of DC, south of DC, and east of DC.....really frustrating situation for them it could be, even though they will accumulate after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Pretty incredible how every big threat has either been a tick north, south, east and west. It doesn't even seem possible. Still, many places N&E of NYC have had at or above seasonal average so far (areas north did well with SWFEs, areas east with the eastern storms). Its really the areas south and west of NYC that have received the ultimate shaft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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