tim Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 ...just looking at the satellite/radar composite..looks like its heading more east than north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 typical mount holly... their map says one thing (3-4"), the point and click says another thing (2-6") and their advisory says something else (3-5").Well it's not like one says 1-3, while the other says 6-10, with the last one saying 3-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 That's every NWS, Uptons same thing i've heard it said that the maps have specific templates and they can't "hand draw" the snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Northern precip shield is actually south from current model concesnsus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 ...just looking at the satellite/radar composite..looks like its heading more east than north. it is, but look at the animation of the american models and it expands north early tuesday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Northern precip shield is actually south from current model concesnsus to my eyes the NAM and NAM-HIRES match the current radar. dont know about the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 2-4 call remains for NYC metro, 3-6 further south, 4-8 in SNJ... this is the easiest storm we've had to forecast all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Well it's not like one says 1-3, while the other says 6-10, with the last one saying 3-6.lol, was thinking the same thing. If it's 3-5, they all verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Some years it just doesn't want to snow here. I would be happily shocked with more than 2" of snow from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Some years it just doesn't want to snow here. I would be happily shocked witnemore than 2" of snow from this. 2" sounds like a good bet... not expecting much more.. and it will mostly fall overnight, so whether its 2 or 3 inches, it doesnt really matter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Some years it just doesn't want to snow here. I would be happily shocked witnemore than 2" of snow from this.Did you not get to use the child table for a snowstorm time lapse? I'm pretty sure I saved the 2006 one somewhere.2-4 looks like a good bet for us but it should help with the low temperatures later in the week, I hope NYC finally hits 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Did you not get to use the child table for a snowstorm time lapse? I'm pretty sure I saved the 2006 one somewhere. 2-4 looks like a good bet for us but it should help with the low temperatures later in the week, I hope NYC finally hits 0. Yeah, I did two this year as well, but the table is in the background. Don't remember if I did one in 2006. You can find them all on www.youtube.com/yhyman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 lol, was thinking the same thing. If it's 3-5, they all verify. well, 2 inches is a lot different than 6 inches.... and both are included among the 3 forecasts for one location from one weather office Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 well, 2 inches is a lot different than 6 inches.... and both are included among the 3 forecasts for one location from one weather officeThose kinds of forecasts are annoying, but often end up being right because of the area they encompass. Look at NYC. You could forecast 1-6 and be completely right on some events where south Brooklyn gets 1 and the Bronx gets 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 SREFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 SREFS.... No change other than noise IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 SREFS.... pretty much remained the same.. keep in mind they had me getting 4" from the last storm, as it had already started.. I got .5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Frankly with a fairly easy set-up (miller a/swfe) models should be locked in at this point within ~ 20 miles. This should be a 1-3/2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Frankly with a fairly easy set-up (miller a/swfe) models should be locked in at this point within ~ 20 miles. This should be a 1-3/2-4. 100% you got it... this isnt anything where we could be surprised by a CCB or IVT - this has been the easiest storm we've had to forecast all year, almost boring if you will.. 1-3/2-4 that mostly falls overnight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Srefs close to .5 for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Srefs close to .5 for nyc Whatz up with that model? Double the output of all others...and usually its tied to the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 SREF at 3z its .5 line was to Brick at 9z its to Long Branch . I'm sure many at KNYC would like to see 1 more bump N at 2 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The NAM is nudging South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Some years it just doesn't want to snow here. I would be happily shocked with more than 2" of snow from this. And yet, we're right around normal... Doesn't help that our friends to the northeast are nipple deep in record snow. Climo ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 SREFs are terrible. The NAM is bad but not as bad as the SREFs.....it's headed south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 This is going to be about a 25 mile shift south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Washington DC now looks like where the cutoff occurs between moderate and light accumulations on a NW to SE line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Whatz up with that model? Double the output of all others...and usually its tied to the NAM It's not a model but an aggregation of models. And when combined, they are very often overdone. Riding the Euro and GFS which are fairly aligned for a 2-3" snowfall here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 ...just looking at the satellite/radar composite..looks like its heading more east than north.Looking at the mesoscale analysis page, the low is heading East, but the 3 hour pressure change, might indicate a more northerly trajectory soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Light now around 2-3AM from SW to NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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