atownwxwatcher Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It looks like Tuesday will be the last snow 'threat' for a while. Because the European says so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Because the European says so? As Ron Darling once said, 'sometimes you know'. Looking at the long range GFS and ECMWF, even if they are off, do not scream winter storm potential to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 As Ron Darling once said, 'sometimes you know'. Looking at the long range GFS and ECMWF, even if they are off, do not scream winter storm potential to me. I like the high that is just south of Nova Scotia at hr 198 on 00z gfs. Is that bad or good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I was saying earlier.....toss the SREFs and the NAM (due to lack of reliability) and go with the GFS/RGEM/Euro.....falls right in line with a 2-4" snowfall NW to SE across the NENJ/NYC areas.....10-15" around BostonI agree, this looks like a general 2-4 nyc and LI, 1-2 north and west, 4+ south of nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 8 plus easy knyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 8 plus easy knycYou're thinking 8-12 for nyc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 8 1 plus easy knyc Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 These miller a's many times track 75 miles or so further north then models depict even up to 18 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 These miller a's many times track 75 miles or so further north then models depict even up to 18 hours out I mean maybe...a bust on the bright side would be good for a change but calling for 8" is ludicrous at this point the forecast is for 1-3" with isolated spots up to 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 These miller a's many times track 75 miles or so further north then models depict even up to 18 hours out Its been a weird year with these things; even I've been thrown a few times...including yesterday & the CAD event a couple weeks ago...thinking it was going to snow decently. Thus, though my forecasting credibility has taken a hit; I will say, FWIW, that the snow maps (printing out fairly uniform amounts in an almost west to east fashion at the lower latitudes) is a pretty rare sort of thing...you almost never see it...these things *usually* hook a little north as they swing east...so a slight north trend seems possible...but, as I said, this has been a confounding winter...so we'll just have to see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Its been a weird year with these things; even I've been thrown a few times...including yesterday & the CAD event a couple weeks ago...thinking it was going to snow decently. Thus, though my forecasting credibility has taken a hit; I will say, FWIW, that the snow maps (printing out fairly uniform amounts in an almost west to east fashion at the lower latitudes) is a pretty rare sort of thing...you almost never see it...these things *usually* hook a little north as they swing east...so a slight north trend seems possible...but, as I said, this has been a confounding winter...so we'll just have to see how it plays out. Yeah I feel something off about this. Storm is looking very decent and our departing storm seems to be exiting a little faster A little shift north and NYC can get 6" Today is gonna be a big day to see if we can get any improvements at all, which most certainly is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yeah I feel something off about this. Storm is looking very decent and our departing storm seems to be exiting a little faster A little shift north and NYC can get 6" Today is gonna be a big day to see if we can get any improvements at all, which most certainly is possible The NNM & ARW...which are always suppressed this far out...were pretty amped...maybe a red flag? If not; might have to put out a white flag for the whole winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 One last thought; the Law of Averages...every storm this winter has trended worse for this area as the event got closer this winter...this is simply weird and not commensurate with the concept of basic random chance...eventually one will likely trend better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The NNM & ARW...which are always suppressed this far out...were pretty amped...maybe a red flag? If not; might have to put out a white flag for the whole winter... The storm that just departed also is the biggest storm we have seen .. COULD be messing with the models but don't take my word for it surface shows cold front extending from the storm all the way to the Midwest just something to point out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 6z NAM looks pretty good, 3" to 5" for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It looks like Tuesday will be the last snow 'threat' for a while.The way teleconnections forecasts are looking, this may be our last threat period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The way teleconnections forecasts are looking, this may be our last threat period.I just saw the projections and they are ugly. Looks like we have retrogression in the day 10+ and loose the +pna and -epo/-wpo, low heights develop over Alaska and we go into an rna pattern in the pacific. If that happens we better pray for a -ao and -nao or we are in big trouble. We will need a -nao at the very least if that happens. ENSO has been neutral, la nada for awhile, so it was only a matter of time before the long term +pna broke down even with the background +pdo, it could only sustain for so long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I've mentioned this before, if we do not get enough snow Tuesday, it will be interesting to see if Central Park gets to normal snowfall this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I've mentioned this before, if we do not get enough snow Tuesday, it will be interesting to see if Central Park gets to normal snowfall this year.Not having an El Niño hurt us. Even with the +pdo you can only sustain a +pna for so long without the Nino tropical convection forcing to keep it in place. The MJO also looks very unfavorable as we go forward. We need the nao and ideally the ao to flip too very very soon cause it looks like the PAC is about to breakdown and with projected lowering of heights over Alaska, it's bye bye -epo if the models are correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The previous Winter Storm Watch for my area has been dropped and changed to a Winter Weather Advisory for 3-5" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 6z gfs?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 6z gfs?? 1-3"/2-4"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 According to someone in the Philly thread the 6z GFS did move about 25-50 miles further north or northwest with minor increases in QPF. Have to see what today's model runs bring if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 According to someone in the Philly thread the 6z GFS did move about 25-50 miles further north or northwest with minor increases in QPF. Have to see what today's model runs bring if anything. Yeah it did. If the confluence ends up being a little weaker than progged it would probably move another 20-30 miles further north. Still think 2-4" for the city with more south and then 6+ for SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 One last thought; the Law of Averages...every storm this winter has trended worse for this area as the event got closer this winter...this is simply weird and not commensurate with the concept of basic random chance...eventually one will likely trend better. Nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Storm snowfall forecasts have been trimmed back a bit by the NWS, as the model consensus track has shifted a bit to the SE of the 40N/70W benchmark. Current projections are for 2-4" for NYC and adjacent NENJ/LI (a bit more on the south shore) and 3-5" for Central Jersey/PA, south of 78 (Middlesex, Monmouth, Mercer, Somerset and Hunterson and Bucks/Montco in PA), where Advisories are up and 4-6" south of there for all of SE PA and South Jersey, where Warnings are up; 1-3" are now forecast for NW NJ, NE PA and the Hudson Valley. Maps below. Would love to get 4", which would put me at 30" for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Nonsense. Agreed. Each event is independent. Just like flipping coins, even if you get heads 100 times in a row, the chance for tails on the next one is still only 50% - history is irrelevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 typical mount holly... their map says one thing (3-4"), the point and click says another thing (2-6") and their advisory says something else (3-5"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 typical mount holly... their map says one thing (3-4"), the point and click says another thing (2-6") and their advisory says something else (3-5"). That's every NWS, Uptons same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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