IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 GGEM is barely a scraper. Oh how I long for just one coastal hugger. I'm tired of bring fringed all Winter long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 GGEM is barely a scraper. Oh how I long for just one coastal hugger. I'm tired of bring fringed all Winter long. I like the RGEM at this range and GGEM lends its support. GFS on the "wetter" side along with the NAM. Still like 1-3" for NNJ and immediate NYC area. Think up to 4" amounts will be confined to along and south of a TTN to Sandy Hook line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 ukmet is pretty decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Any word on the GGEM/UK/GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 There's literally 0 model consistency, north south dry wet, we got it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The UKMET continues to like this event relative to most models for whatever reason, it seems similar to the Euo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The UKMET continues to like this event relative to most models for whatever reason, it seems similar to the Euo.What's its qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The UKMET continues to like this event relative to most models for whatever reason, it seems similar to the Euo.Similar to nam & Sref no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The euro is the best with southern stream systems so whatever it says tonight is what we should believe. If it backs off then other models will win. Nice to see UKMET hold serve. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 2/16 00Z Summary Tue 2/17 Storm (AM - PM) NYC Area QPF (N - S gradient) SREF: 0.35 - 0.50 NAM: 0.25 - 0.40 RGEM: 0.10 - 0.25 GFS: 0.15 - 0.25 GEFS: 0.20 - 0.35 GGEM: 0.05 - 0.20 UKMET: 0.20 - 0.40 (upto 0.50+ south of 195) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Similar to nam & Sref no? uk is 6mm - 10mm / around 0.20 - 0.40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 uk is 6mm - 10mm / around 0.20 - 0.40 Ah I had heard north.....it looks like it shifted considerably further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Ah I had heard north.....it looks like it shifted considerably further south looks about 30 miles se.. proverbial rounding error Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 CAUTION . That LP running through the lakes will most likely allow this to correct way N and W and that will not be snow on coastal plain and the western side will be robbed of any good moisture flow and you will be left with the best precip falling in the warm sector . You don't want to see LP there , you want to see a High through the lakes . So regardless of what the model shows you this far out , you NEED to see that change , if you want snow on the coastal plain and bigger precip shield to the W . 6 days later and this stands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 6 days later and this standsGood call man.....looks like that's how it may turn out. Precip shield is not expansive and we don't get much help with it passing far outside of the benchmark (though this should be quite a nice snowstorm for a good portion of the midatlantic, just not a 12-18 incher..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I still think KNYC could see 2 to 3 but greater than 4 is probably on the CNJ coast with 6 down in SNJ There is just too much confluence for the SLP to come far enough N to bring warning criteria snow for most N of 195 . But if you can appreciate 2 to 3inside a week of minus 20 from the norms then its your kind of week . If you are KU hunting this is not your storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Good call man.....looks like that's how it may turn out. Precip shield is not expansive and we don't get much help with it passing far outside of the benchmark (though this should be quite a nice snowstorm for a good portion of the midatlantic, just not a 12-18 incher.....With SLP in the lakes only 2 things happen , if we did not have this extreme cold dome of air over us , we would have P Type issues And in this case the air Is plenty of cold the western side just falls apart. I am sure it has happened before , but I never like seeing LP in the lakes , it just burns you in the end. That said , this is not a whiff , but its not what it could have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Euro time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Euro south I heard, nail in coffin oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Euro NWNJ .1 KNYC .2 Southern half of LI down into Monmouth county .3 Sorry for the bad news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Euro NWNJ .1 KNYC .2 Southern half of LI down into Monmouth county .3 Sorry for the bad news. Not your fault hhaaha..1-4 inches it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Euro NWNJ .1 KNYC .2 Southern half of LI down into Monmouth county .3 Sorry for the bad news. I was saying earlier.....toss the SREFs and the NAM (due to lack of reliability) and go with the GFS/RGEM/Euro.....falls right in line with a 2-4" snowfall NW to SE across the NENJ/NYC areas.....10-15" around Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Euro NWNJ .1 KNYC .2 Southern half of LI down into Monmouth county .3 Sorry for the bad news. Not sure I would call it bad news, just expected news. Around .20 is what most models are showing for NYC. With ratios that's probably about 3 inches. Looks like a 2-4 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I was saying earlier.....toss the SREFs and the NAM (due to lack of reliability) and go with the GFS/RGEM/Euro.....falls right in line with a 2-4" snowfall NW to SE across the NENJ/NYC areas If there was ever a time for 15 to 1 ratios your 850s and 700 MB levels are very cold and there will not be any wind as the center is so far East . Hope for .25 at 15 to 1 and maybe you can make chicken soup out of chicken s...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm about 25 miles south of the city and still hoping for a 2-4" event. A bit disappointing though as I really thought this would trend further north but oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 What a winter this has been, heavy snow to our north and now heavy snow to our south, talk about a shaft job, wow. Is it spring yet?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 What a winter this has been, heavy snow to our north and now heavy snow to our south, talk about a shaft job, wow. Is it spring yet?? Yeah,,spring can come now.Can't believe I'm saying this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I still think 2-4" is plausible for the city and 6" is still possible south of Union County. Have to see what the models do during the day tomorrow but its hard to be hopefully for anything better then that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yeah,,spring can come now.Can't believe I'm saying this. Models say not yet but it's not that much longer now. SNE better hope spring comes in gradually and not like a warm monsoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It looks like Tuesday will be the last snow 'threat' for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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