Metasequoia Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 As far as recent models go...the RGEM is a miss, but the NAM moved north 75 miles from its previous run and has been moving north all day long. The SREFS point to 6 to 10 inches of snow and is trending. Sounds like a mixed picture with some upside potential. Let's see what the rest of the 0Z models show and realize that models have been poor this year even within 24 hours of an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It only has to be more then 4" to be the second biggest storm of the season in wantagh. I think it's totally doable. Nice to be south this time around. I like 3" at cpk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It's funny what one winter can do to a forum, but I'm not suprised. 70" in Bos, dc about to get hammered, coastal nj keeps getting hammered! and snj as well. For the rest of us it's very frustrating . Don't worry guys we,will get our storm soon, maybe not this winter. Boston has close to 90 inches now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 GFS says RGEM is not crazy, scrape job again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Weenie map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Seems like a few inches (3 or 4) as per GFS. Nothing major though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 unreal just north of nyc has been "the snowhole" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Seems like a few inches (3 or 4) as per GFS. Nothing major though. Pretty in line with the recent nam as well, maybe a little less amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 GFS supports 2-4". It's been very consistent and is very similar 18z run (maybe slightly south), which was almost identical to its 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Pretty in line with the recent nam as well, maybe a little less amped Yeah. I'll take the snowpack refresh and wait in hope the model gods deliver one final miracle for us all in the next few weeks! I have to say this cold weather and nickel and diming of snow events has me looking forward to spring moreso even than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Surprise that the GFS went south. I was thinking that Boston is a snow magnet this winter, so if that is true the models would have trended north with this system. NYC 1"-3" is my current forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Albeit 2-4" on gfs I'll take it. Still KU hunting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 it's pretty much the same as 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yeah. I'll take the snowpack refresh and wait in hope the model gods deliver one final miracle for us all in the next few weeks! I have to say this cold weather and nickel and diming of snow events has me looking forward to spring moreso even than last year. Yea I'm gonna whiff up here most likely, but I've seen snow atleast once a week the past 4 weeks, so I can't complain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 GFS supports 2-4". It's been very consistent and is very similar 18z run (maybe slightly south), which was almost identical to its 12z run. Yeah. I will respect one thing with the new GFS. It doesn't flip-flop a ton like the prior one or like the other NCEP model I won't even NAMe here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think you're a good poster despite the attacks on you before for not calling for an 8-12 inch snowfall with this. Once again people got sucked into buying overamped, overjuiced outlier rogue runs of certain models and ran with it, gee I don't know...for maybe the 10th time this winter already Yeah it's been to many times, I have finally learned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I would be happy with another inch. 1 inch closer to 40. I think we get another good overrunning event before the patten flips to a warmer set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Anyone know how the rgem and new gfs are on southern stream systems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Gfs is similiar to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yeah. I will respect one thing with the new GFS. It doesn't flip-flop a ton like the prior one or like the other NCEP model I won't even NAMe here.Definitely. That's what I've noticed as well. The models that seem to gradually move toward a different solution tend to be the best (euro, RGEM, and possibly the new GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 For anyone that wanted to see, here's your low about 300 miles off shore, really a shame that confluence is so predominant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Getting back to the weather for just a moment. The fact that this event has moved up a full 24 hours+ from what it was originally progged at and the fact that massive explosive bomb is still on the field over the maritimes likely a big factor that this is staying suppressed and not really following the seasonal trend of "ticking" north. Based on all 00Z data so far 1-3" seems like best forecast for NNJ/metro NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Getting back to the weather for just a moment. The fact that this event has moved up a full 24 hours+ from what it was originally progged at and the fact that massive explosive bomb is still on the field over the maritimes likely a big factor that this is staying suppressed and not really following the seasonal trend of "ticking" north. Based on all 00Z data so far 1-3" seems like best forecast for NNJ/metro NYC area. Agreed, but would increase the range 2-4/5 as lowest qpf still yield >1" even to NYC 2/16 00Z Summary Tue 2/17 Storm (AM - PM) NYC Area QPF SREF: 0.35 - 0.50 NAM: 0.25 - 0.40 RGEM: 0.10 - 0.25 GFS: 0.15 - 0.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 He's been shushed. Sorry all. Back to that storm thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 There is lots of great analysis here, I have learned much over the years. Sure there is some bickering but if you dont want to read it then scroll past it, its not a big deal. I actually find it more annoying when posters claim one board better than another, all they have to do is leave. Most of us are passionate and that comes out in in a variety of ways, people need to learn to embrace it honestly. edit: delete if too banter-ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Getting back to the weather for just a moment. The fact that this event has moved up a full 24 hours+ from what it was originally progged at and the fact that massive explosive bomb is still on the field over the maritimes likely a big factor that this is staying suppressed and not really following the seasonal trend of "ticking" north. Based on all 00Z data so far 1-3" seems like best forecast for NNJ/metro NYC area. srefs(arguably old data) and nam were both better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Getting back to the weather for just a moment. The fact that this event has moved up a full 24 hours+ from what it was originally progged at and the fact that massive explosive bomb is still on the field over the maritimes likely a big factor that this is staying suppressed and not really following the seasonal trend of "ticking" north. Based on all 00Z data so far 1-3" seems like best forecast for NNJ/metro NYC area. This is a fair forcast, I do believe parts of Long Island could see 4-6" but that's banking on the northern most solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The AO and NAO have been raging positive nearly the entire winter. You should count yourselves lucky for getting near average snowfall. This winter should have been a sham but luckily the pacific has been more than generous so we've had a decent winter. Don't expect a KU this winter and I learned my lesson not to. There's a reason why we've had almost no KU's in a +AO/+NAO pattern. Expect more smaller systems before the winter wraps up and places like NYC should get around 30" for the season which is very solid with well below temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 That blizzard is a beast. It almost looks like there is a connection to the storm over the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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