Winter201415 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Upton says 15:1 and they're usually bullish, upper level temps were almost identical this last storm and Upton was calling for possible 20;1 ratios, I saw 2.4" fall on .24" liquid, with no wind...snow growth was awful dispite the great ingredients, high ratios rarely work out especially in and around the cityu were also way north of the main low. Missing the heavy bands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 u were also way north of the main low. Missing the heavy bands And where do you think nyc will be on this upcoming storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Neat little site : http://sanders.math.uwm.edu/cgi-bin-snowratio/sr_map_main.pl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 enough banter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Neat little site : http://sanders.math.uwm.edu/cgi-bin-snowratio/sr_map_main.pl Great find! Thanks for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 enough banter What banter? We're discussing snow ratios for the upcoming storm.. This isn't a model thread it's a storm discussion thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hearing rgem is still south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Another issue is the confluence itself, how much of that Northern precip shield is gonna fall as virga or break up as hits that dry air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 see no reason to change the 2-4 call for NYC, more south... this isnt that tough of a forecast.. may bust an inch in either direction (1 or 5) would lean towards 1, but still... the rest is semantics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hearing rgem is still south Rgem is a scrape job, long island sees a couple hours of moderate shows, everyone else is light snow showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Rgem barely gets (if it even does) the 5mm line to nyc. Probably just gets to southern portion of Brooklyn queens and LI. It looks to remain the driest of the modelling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hearing rgem is still south 0z @ 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hearing rgem is still southIt is definitely south.....even went south from its last run. I've found it to be reliable close to this range so it's honestly not a good sign, wishcasting aside. If it hasn't improved over the next couple runs, this could be on the low end of the 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 see no reason to change the 2-4 call for NYC, more south... this isnt that tough of a forecast.. Yea rgem is usually deadly in this range, seems on par with GFS and slightly South of nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 "The confluence is strong with this one" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Threat meet fork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It wasn't going to be a major event anyway like people need to seriously chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 1inch? Come on man this is ridiculous posting. It doesn't make sense! Dude please go look at the models, I love your optimism, but there's no guidance to back you up tonight... Rgem is literally snow showers for you and everyone not on long island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 How about we just enjoy what we have coming. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yikes. Models really seem to be buying the confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 not as north as u were. And this will be a better setup. More widespread precip shield, much colder temps and no breaks in the precip. I think your a good poster but you've got to look at the overall picture! I guess we'll find out Tuesday but I'm betting we get 15:1 or moreI'll agree that ratios I also think will be higher this storm, maybe 15:1. However, we should never rely on better ratios to get solid accumulations. 0.2" would be still only a few inches. With lake effect situations, they are able to squeeze out 30:1+ ratios albeit more moisture usually. We've had absolutely no signs of this being a big snowstorm aside from the SREFs and one run of the euro. I think we've learned over the past few weeks to look past the snowiest couple model runs and go with the consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Dude please go look at the models, I love your optimism, but there's no guidance to back you up tonight... Rgem is literally snow showers for you and everyone not on long island It's not just models when making a forecast. I think a blend right now plus using north trends puts NYC right around 4 inches. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 How about we just enjoy what we have coming. It is what it is. It may turn out to be over-glorified snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It's not just models when making a forecast. I think a blend right now plus using north trends puts NYC right around 4 inches. Sent from my iPhone Do you concider 1 nam run a trend? Btw the nam didn't have the low any further north, only the precip shield... And the RGEM maybe the most reliabke model we had within 48hrs went south of its 12z run, so what trends are you talking of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 1inch? Come on man this is ridiculous posting. It doesn't make sense! no I said 2-4 is my guess... but if I had to pick between 1 inch or 5, I would go with 1... but my call was 2-4, which I dont think is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Do you concider 1 nam run a trend? Btw the nam didn't have the low any further north, only the precip shield... And the RGEM maybe the most reliabke model we had within 48hrs went south of its 12z run, so what trends are you talking of? The overall trends of the last 24 hrs. Everything has ticked north. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 honestly some people are annoying on here and give false information. If you guys don't like snow why the heck are you posting on a weather forum. Can't stand the negativity and bad information on here. Miss information from some posters is just obnoxious! Too much negativity! There's also a thing called too much positivity. Emotion and science do not mix and honestly your 6-12" prediction is way out there compared to all guidance 1-3/2-4" with isolated 5" spots in southern areas like Staten Island/Monmouth, seems like a good call which has been the call since the threat started getting discussed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Put it this way.....at this point, it's safer to toss the SREFs, toss the NAM and make a forecast based on the RGEM, GFS, and Euro.....and as we get very close to the start of the event, we can watch the RAP and HRRR.....it's really the best bet. If we did this for each storm so far, I don't think we'd feel like we're completely in the dark in terms of what to expect. I'm usually not int "tossing" models, but I feel those 2 really skew the mean big time and are unreliable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Put it this way.....at this point, it's safer to toss the SREFs, toss the NAM and make a forecast based on the RGEM, GFS, and Euro.....and as we get very close to the start of the event, we can watch the RAP and HRRR.....it's really the best bet. If we did this for each storm so far, I don't think we'd feel like we're completely in the dark in terms of what to expect. I'm usually not int "tossing" models, but I feel those 2 really skew the mean big time and are unreliable Will be fun (and potentially painful) to watch this on the models to see how strong the confluence is and how it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 i put you on ignore. I suggest you the same! Have a nice night sir! Thank god Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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