Allsnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Much improved nam run, wetter, further north, and a better organized low.. That's all we can ask for from the nam tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Nam was just .10 at 18z for nyc Now it's .25+ Verbatim that's prob 4 inches of blower pow. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Problem is that this event is less than 36hrs away, we need some pretty big shifts to occur in that time frame, and based off seasonal trends this year and the progressive nature of this event, I don't think we see anything "major" nyc area is still a possibility for low end warning level snow, myself however will be on the sidelines for this one Lol remember that overrunning event that kept shifting north in 36 hour frame, was suppose to give us 12 inches ended up giving Bos 16. Look man, never give up even if it doesn't work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Much improved nam run, wetter, further north, and a better organized low.. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Lol remember that overrunning event that kept shifting north in 36 hour frame, was suppose to give us 12 inches ended up giving Bo's 16. Look man, never give up even if it doesn't work out. I don't give up otherwise I wouldn't be posting I just know this one needs a major shift of atleast 100+ miles, for my area atleast, I would feel better if this trend started 2 days ago lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I agree this event has a decent chance to go a little further north. I like to see what The RGEM has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I don't know what people are complaining about the Nam looks a good deal better and there's still time for additional ticks north through tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Rgem is 10:20 whoever asked before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Rgem is 10:20 whoever asked before Thanks. Some folks have seemed to get it early in the past (hence why I asked). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Nam 3-5 for nyc 4-8 Driscoll bridge south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Nam 3-5 for nyc 4-8 Driscoll bridge south Would ratios factor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 We've seen these SFWE's tick north inside 36 hours this winter to screw us and hammer southern New England due to the models over doing the confluence. The track is beginning to look better, need that 50/50 to exit stage right a little quicker and lesson that confluence. If this does happen hopefully it doesn't screw over dc and vicinity ... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 A lot of people seem to view unbiased realism as negativity, if models project something verbatim we certainly can't base our expectations off what were "hoping" will happen... Can the models "tick" North? Yes of course....but ticking is all it will do, keep your expectations limited to what the models show... Not 1 single model has shown a major warning level snowfall for nyc and surrounding areas since last week...the best run of all was the 00z nam and even that was .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Would ratios factor? There are always ratios... every snowfall has a snow–liquid ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Would ratios factor? Factored in akready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Weenie map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I don't give up otherwise I wouldn't be posting I just know this one needs a major shift of atleast 100+ miles, for my area atleast, I would feel better if this trend started 2 days ago lol There will be more chances for us inland folk later once the extreme cold modifies. During extreme cold air masses, the coast and those south usually cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 We've seen these SFWE's tick north inside 36 hours this winter to screw us and hammer southern New England due to the models over doing the confluence. The track is beginning to look better, need that 50/50 to exit stage right a little quicker and lesson that confluence. If this does happen hopefully it doesn't screw over dc and vicinity ... Sent from my iPhone yeah umm this is not the same situation, not saying the storm cannot come some more north but there are legitimate reasons for a more southern southern, the confluence is a real issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 A lot of people seem to view unbiased realism as negativity, if models project something verbatim we certainly can't base our expectations off what were "hoping" will happen... Can the models "tick" North? Yes of course....but ticking is all it will do, keep your expectations limited to what the models show... Not 1 single model has shown a major warning level snowfall for nyc and surrounding areas since last week...the best run of all was the 00z nam and even that was .25 The better thing is to look at what would "change" what the models currently are depicting. As someone said, above, where the 50/50 is located, where the H is located and how soon/late does it push in/scoot out. Low transfer, etc. I've always been skeptical of southern origin storms not riding a bit further north and having a bit more moisture to play with, but I'm a bit concerned with the H/confluence this time more than the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Weenie map I'll take an inch to freshen the pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 A lot of people seem to view unbiased realism as negativity, if models project something verbatim we certainly can't base our expectations off what were "hoping" will happen... Can the models "tick" North? Yes of course....but ticking is all it will do, keep your expectations limited to what the models show... Not 1 single model has shown a major warning level snowfall for nyc and surrounding areas since last week...the best run of all was the 00z nam and even that was .25 Agreed. All the models seem to have good agreement on this. No wild swings will happen from here on, except for maybe the nam... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Nam is 2-4" for nyc more South, less North, even "if" ratios make it to 20:1 which is highly unlikely 4 is about the max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Agreed. All the models seem to have good agreement on this. No wild swings will happen from here on, except for maybe the nam... I mean the optimism would be warranted if for instance the 12z euro or GFS was a big hit, or one of last nights 00z suite hinted at a nice push North, but most global guidance is right on track with each other, and have been for a few days, trust me I'm usually a weenie, but I'm not buying into this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I mean the optimism would be warranted if for instance the 12z euro or GFS was a big hit, or one of last nights 00z suite hinted at a nice push North, but most global guidance is right on track with each other, and have been for a few days, trust me I'm usually a weenie, but I'm not buying into this storm. I'm with you. Another nickel/ dime event that adds to an impressive snowpack. Our big snow will come soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I mean the optimism would be warranted if for instance the 12z euro or GFS was a big hit, or one of last nights 00z suite hinted at a nice push North, but most global guidance is right on track with each other, and have been for a few days, trust me I'm usually a weenie, but I'm not buying into this storm.this turned from a classic miller a to a sfwe which is imo is not a heavy snowstorm but it'll be plenty of cold with minimal winds I don't see how nyc and south at least get 4 inches out of this. If it was a miller a this would be an easy 6-12. And if the low lifts a bit more north this could very well be 6-12 for even nyc! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 this turned from a classic miller a to a sfwe which is imo is not a heavy snowstorm but it'll be plenty of cold with minimal winds I don't see how nyc and south at least get 4 inches out of this. If it was a miller a this would be an easy 6-12. And if the low lifts a bit more north this could very well be 6-12 for even nyc! A "bit" would be about 150+ miles, this things out there dude, your gonna need .40- .75" for a 6-12.. And again don't expect to see anything higher than 12:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 A "bit" would be about 150+ miles, this things out there dude, your gonna need .40- .75" for a 6-12.. And again don't expect to see anything higher than 12:1 ratios With -12C at 700mb and teens at the surface this is a legit 15-20 to 1 possible event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 A "bit" would be about 150+ miles, this things out there dude, your gonna need .40- .75" for a 6-12.. And again don't expect to see anything higher than 12:1 ratiosno that's where I think your wrong. I think this storm gives us the best ratios of the season. Least is 12:1 but I'm thinking more like 15-20:1 because it's not going to be windy and all levels are going to be frigid and therell be some heavy banding setting up! Great ratios trust me on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 With -12C at 700mb and teens at the surface this is a legit 15-20 to 1 possible event. Upton says 15:1 and they're usually bullish, upper level temps were almost identical this last storm and Upton was calling for possible 20;1 ratios, I saw 2.4" fall on .24" liquid, with no wind...snow growth was awful dispite the great ingredients, high ratios rarely work out especially in and around the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 A lot of people seem to view unbiased realism as negativity, if models project something verbatim we certainly can't base our expectations off what were "hoping" will happen... Can the models "tick" North? Yes of course....but ticking is all it will do, keep your expectations limited to what the models show... Not 1 single model has shown a major warning level snowfall for nyc and surrounding areas since last week...the best run of all was the 00z nam and even that was .25 Yep, exactly. Models have had a much better handle on this one as we've gotten closer. In fact, there hasn't been too much change in certain models run to run. I've written about this also.....too many forecasts seem based on what we'd like to happen and not what most likely will happen. SREFs are generally unreliable and the plumes are way too high. They showed just yesterday that parts of Maine would receive 40-50" of snow.....obviously that didn't happen. 2-4" I feel is a pretty good call right now.....we can't rely on more than 12:1 ratios either. If they turn out higher, then terrific. But the whole "better ratios to the northern will make up for lighter precip" never works out. Heavier precip = more snow. Simple as that. If we somehow can squeeze out 5" of snow from 0.25" liquid, then we're lucky ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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