IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 2-4" or 4-6" depending on location on the front end dump. Then a bit of ice and then moderate to heavy rain. QPF is over 1" and close to 2" from LI up through SNE with a 3-4" JP over coastal RI and MA, almost all of that falling as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I think a lot of people here would be highly satisified if Boston got several inches of rain and lost all there snow in one shot. Your a jerk with banter to boot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 verbatim yes, still 6 days to go....lots can and will change. One thing is for sure, when the southern stream gets involved we seem to warm up and rain (guess it makes sense with no blocking.)thats not true. Most miller a storms this year we had heavy thump of snow to ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I think a lot of people here would be highly satisified if Boston got several inches of rain and lost all there snow in one shot.boooo no one would be happy for them. They would see biblical floods and that would be terrible for the economy and sad for New England so no we don't wish that no one does! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I think a lot of people here would be highly satisified if Boston got several inches of rain and lost all there snow in one shot. I'm sure the mid atlantic would wish nothing less judging by some of their posts-Jebman in particular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The GGEM is similar to the GFS, front end dump then over to heavy rain. River flooding threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Nobody here wants to see them get flooded. We just want them to lose there snow and get the shaft for once. how far north is the mix line pushing on the gfs and ggem...i will be skiing at hunter mountain during this timeframe, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 how far north is the mix line pushing on the gfs and ggem...i will be skiing at hunter mountain during this timeframe, thanks. Well NW of 95. Anywhere within 75-100 miles of the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Nobody here wants to see them get flooded. We just want them to lose there snow and get the shaft for once. This possible event is so far out and there is so much frigid air not far away that there is a lot of latitude for changes. A colder solution is certainly within the realm of possibility, not just for New England, but also the northern Mid-Atlantic region. As far as Boston is concerned, I'm personally hoping that Boston and surrounding areas can continue to enjoy a special winter. I don't think things should be viewed in a zero sum context where we "win" only if Boston "doesn't"--there will be time for that when the Yankees and Red Sox play. I hope that we can get a big storm, as can the Washington-Baltimore area at some point. That does not preclude additional big snowfalls for Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 This possible event is so far out and there is so much frigid air not far away that there is a lot of latitude for changes. A colder solution is certainly within the realm of possibility, not just for New England, but also the northern Mid-Atlantic region. As far as Boston is concerned, I'm personally hoping that Boston and surrounding areas can continue to enjoy a special winter. I don't think things should be viewed in a zero sum context where we "win" only if Boston "doesn't"--there will be time for that when the Yankees and Red Sox play. I hope that we can get a big storm, as can the Washington-Baltimore area at some point. That does not preclude additional big snowfalls for Boston. Excellent Post! Agreed 100%! We're ALL snowlovers so why not root for them too!! I'm happy Boston is getting the goods and hope they can reach an all-time record! Also rooting hard that the DC crowd and even the Philly/South Jersey crowd can get at least one solid snowstorm before we run out of time. I don't get the hate. Trust me we all want to be in the bullseye for every storm, but we can't control mother nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmaster Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Excellent Post! Agreed 100%! We're ALL snowlovers so why not root for them too!! I'm happy Boston is getting the goods and hope they can reach an all-time record! Also rooting hard that the DC crowd and even the Philly/South Jersey crowd can get at least one solid snowstorm before we run out of time. I don't get the hate. Trust me we all want to be in the bullseye for every storm, but we can't control mother nature. Strongly agree with Don and (co-Morganville resident) Rob. We all root for snow, but if it doesn't fall on you, forget the hate and wait for your next opportunity! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 With the euro being further south with sundays storm, it will force Tuesday's storm further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Low ends up going over 95. 0z had it over Erie. Solid front end dump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 Low ends up going over 95. 0z had it over Erie. Solid front end dump How much QPF as Snow/Rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 How much QPF as Snow/Rain? 3-6 before any change. Nw of 95 stays frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Snow to rain this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It looks like it;s alot better well north and west of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 With the euro being further south with sundays storm, it will force Tuesday's storm further south The Euro this run basically shears out the overrunning initial wave and the second wave goes over us, but with that Plains high barreling down, any change in timing and this thing can shift 500 miles either way. Would not surprise me to see this turn into mostly nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 This is not mostly nothing..... according to the WPC http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1423686779 hang in- hold on we in for a doozy of a storm! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015021112/gfs-ens_apcpn_eus_30.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015021112/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_eus_8.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015021112/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_28.png http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9nhwbg_crop.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Mean is south of nyc this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015021118/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png get the relish http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015021118/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015021118/gfs_T2m_neus_27.png FRAME IT! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015021118/gfs_asnow_neus_28.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The models have all lost the SLP through the lakes it had yesterday. This has def come S and E today. Let's hope the colder trend continue . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015021118/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png get the relish http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015021118/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015021118/gfs_T2m_neus_27.png FRAME IT! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015021118/gfs_asnow_neus_28.png gfs_asnow_neus_28.png Frame a snowmap showing a few inches of snow in NYC over a week and well over a foot of snow for most of New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The models have all lost the SLP through the lakes it had yesterday. This has def come S and E today. Let's hope the colder trend continue . We need a less amped solution to slip far enough SE. We'll have to see if the Euro tracking further east is a a result of its bias to hold too much energy to the SW allowing the upper portion of the trough to press further east. Plenty of time to see how things look after the first two storms exit the scene next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Frame a snowmap showing a few inches of snow in NYC over a week and well over a foot of snow for most of New England? Yes..jm http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_atlantic_156_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif step thru the loop http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gfs&area=atlantic&cycle=20150211%2018%20UTC¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fourpan=no&imageSize=&ps=area I like this look that be our circle of fate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Meh. I just can't get excited about an arbitrarily placed "H", without so much as a closed isobar, south of the Azores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Meh. I just can't get excited about an arbitrarily placed "H", without so much as a closed isobar, south of the Azores. Sir ...run the loops do the comps http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015021112/gfs-ens_z500_mslp_namer_27.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2015021112/gem-ens_z500_mslp_namer_26.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015021112/ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_namer_7.png nobody but nobody here does this legwork never do I see an Atlantic side PBP with any model run NEVER its always end game weenie B.S. this is a snowstorm for NYC -imo dm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 nobody but nobody here does this legwork never do I see an Atlantic side PBP with any model run NEVER this is a snowstorm dm I just don't think surface features in the subtropical Atlantic are terribly important to the evolution of an upstream snowstorm. If anything, a strong enough Bermuda high would favor an inland track and rain for the masses, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I just don't think surface features in the subtropical Atlantic are terribly important to the evolution of an upstream snowstorm. If anything, a strong enough Bermuda high would favor an inland track and rain for the masses, correct? J if that's what you want to believe..O.K. make a forecast then that Atlantic High slides east and in tandem with our storm it is the buffer... keeping this from going out to sea and just enough for a nice benchmark solution to take hold again my call...from the blend of guidance ATM not the end game of any (one) model run dm super crude but look where the axis of heavy QPF is .... Right at the B.M. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day47_6hrly.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 DM, are you more than a hobbyist? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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