Winter201415 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 If your going to have good ratios this will be the storm. Light winds and frigid temps from way above to the surfaces! I wouldn't be surprised getting 20:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NAM with a little more gusto http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2015021600/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_8.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 DC gets pounded so far through Tuesday early morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 If your going to have good ratios this will be the storm. Light winds and frigid temps from way above to the surfaces! I wouldn't be surprised getting 20:1 ratios I wish people would stop assuming that a cold column = high ratios. It's bad meteorology, to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Here comes the nam! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NAM with a little more gusto http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2015021600/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_8.png It looks like it's gonna be a huge hit based on the progression so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Snow reaches SNJ around midnight according to the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Nam is almost 75 miles northwest of 18z, precip will reach Albany this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Which location are you pointing to as in big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hr 34 stronger low and further north...steady snow to nyc...mod to ttn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hr 35 the same...dca Delmarva snj getting crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Remember, it's the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hr 36 mod snow to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I wish people would stop assuming that a cold column = high ratios. It's bad meteorology, to say the least. Assumption is different than expectation. Based on the profiles in the models there's reasonable assumption we could see 15-1 or 16-1 ratio snowfall in some spots for a period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Nam came North yet same solution, light precip on the northern shield makes it about 50 miles More North but that's about it Nyc and Long Island sees several hours of moderate snow before it pulls away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Northern high seems a bit too south for a huge hit IMO might be too early to tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Remember, it's the NAM Lol we know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Happy for folks in Mid Atlantic! Enjoy the snow blitz! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Bit further north nothing crazy though at all lol everyone seems so psyched by this run. Hammers DC to SNJ though ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Nam came North yet same solution, light precip on the northern shield makes it about 50 miles More North but that's about it Nyc and Long Island sees several hours of moderate snow before it pulls away I'm pulling for you ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Nam came North yet same solution, light precip on the northern shield makes it about 50 miles More North but that's about it Nyc and Long Island sees several hours of moderate snow before it pulls away Ok lol sorry, that was a disappointment. It looked pretty good initially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The confluence is very strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Nam is a decent advisory event for nyc and Long Island but nothing more, anyone North of NYC looks to be a 1-2" tops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Through hr 39 .25 to NYC and .5 just south of Phl Nam was noticeably Wetter in the mid atlantic this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Bit further north nothing crazy though at all lol everyone seems so psyched by this run. Hammers DC to SNJ though ! The trend is your friend. The location/strength of that High pressure will be key. The confluence being shown is a bit too close for my liking, but hey we're at least looking at a decent little snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Really worried about the confluence. Not trying to be negative but I'm hoping this doesn't turn into another event where the precip hits a "wall".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The trend is your friend. The location/strength of that High pressure will be key. The confluence being shown is a bit too close for my liking, but hey we're at least looking at a decent little snowfall. Problem is that this event is less than 36hrs away, we need some pretty big shifts to occur in that time frame, and based off seasonal trends this year and the progressive nature of this event, I don't think we see anything "major" nyc area is still a possibility for low end warning level snow, myself however will be on the sidelines for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Nam was just .10 at 18z for nyc Now it's .25+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Much improved nam run, wetter, further north, and a better organized low.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Really worried about the confluence. Not trying to be negative but I'm hoping this doesn't turn into another event where the precip hits a "wall".. Would be the third time this season for the NYC area, kind of why I am not getting my hopes up until I actually see the radar echoes making it all the way up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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