robPAwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Man this storm reminds me of 1/26-1/27 just a totally different set up. I cry anytime I go read the thread before that storm lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 If anything, the modeling is showing this coming in quicker. A few days ago it was a Tuesday-Tuesday night storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 ah oh my bad Mine too. I was being way too literal . . . And cynical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Srefs wetter .5 to nyc .75 to acy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Man this storm reminds me of 1/26-1/27 just a totally different set up. I cry anytime I go read the thread before that storm lol. Tonight's runs imo are the most important, if they don't take a decent jump North we know where this storms going, I don't expect the models to change too much tomorrow if not tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Srefs wetter .5 to nyc .75 to acy Yep nice bump north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Nyc srefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 By how many miles did it jump north...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 By how many miles did it jump north...? No clue it's the srefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Nyc srefs yeah .4 not .5 but either way, id take it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I see alrite np Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Nice start to 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I know it's the NAM, but let's see what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Nyc srefs That's 15z, 21z is out now. WxBell is pretty delayed with getting the SREF's out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 That's 15z, 21z is out now. WxBell is pretty delayed with getting the SREF's out. I thought I clicked 21 my ba dill post 21 and delete the other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Plume means now 7-10" most areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 21z SREF Plumes (Total Snow) TTN - 9.31 in PHI - 9.63 in BLM - 8.83 in EWR -8.77 in LGA-8.64 in JFK-8.52 in ISP-8.78 in HPN - 8.42 in BDR - 7.63 in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 ARW + NMM have heavy snow areawide by 0700 Tuesday morning Btw the two pics are 2 seperate model depictions That is beautiful..Snow has been slowly piling up these last few weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 And I'm loving it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 SREF plume mean of 9 inches at TTN now...getting interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks like snow comes in between 2-4 AM for most areas now. Might be enough to get a snow day with the morning looking worse and worse for conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 21z SREF Plumes (Total Snow) TTN - 9.31 in PHI - 9.63 in BLM - 8.83 in EWR -8.77 in LGA-8.64 in JFK-8.52 in ISP-8.78 in HPN - 8.42 in BDR - 7.63 in Best to look at QPF and not snow. For example, those plumes give LGA 8.14" of snow on .43" QPF, which is roughly a 19:1 ratio. I don't think people should be banking on ratios quite that high, maybe 12 to 15:1, which translates to about 5-7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I didn't see this posted... FURTHER NORTH...PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES BECOME LESS OF ANISSUE...AS A COLD COLUMN REMAINS IN PLACE. THE BEST MID LEVEL LIFTPLACES MOISTURE INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE STRETCHING FROMWESTERN NC ACROSS MUCH OF VA/MD/DC INTO SOUTHERN NJ AND PORTIONSOF NYC AND LONG ISLAND. GIVEN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AND DENDRITICGROWTH POTENTIAL...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS COULD EXCEED 15 TO1...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. THE TRACK OF THEBEST MID LEVEL LIFT NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE WAVE SUPPORTS A LARGEAREA OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF VA... SOUTHERN WV ...EASTERN MD...SOUTHEAST PA...SOUTHERN NJ ACROSS MUCH OF LI. THERE COULD BE A SMALL AREA OF NEAR 12 INCHES OF SNOWFALL SOMEWHERE ON THIS AXIS...AS SUGGESTED BY MEMBERS OF THE LATESTECMWF ENSEMBLE OUTPUT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE MID LEVELSYSTEM...THIS APPEARS TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY EVENT AT THIS TIME. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_12.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Best to look at QPF and not snow. For example, those plumes give LGA 8.14" of snow on .43" QPF, which is roughly a 19:1 ratio. I don't think people should be banking on ratios quite that high, maybe 12 to 15:1, which translates to about 5-7". I was just about to post the same. For Poughkeepsie, it has 6.59" of snow on 0.24" of QPF for 27:1 ratios. I'm not holding my breath on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Early guess nam will bump north...more energy being involved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Nice 11/11/87 slash 1/26/87 by the SREFs...literally hit DC/Boston but try to avoid us. I was thinking about 1/26/87 because 1987 wasn't a bad analog for this year...NYC picked up 4" with much more to the south...today was 4 degrees in 1987 and a southern snowstorm hit the area later in the month...NYC got 4-5" while southern N.J. got over 10"...If we see moisture from the Gulf get involved we could get 6" plus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I was just about to post the same. For Poughkeepsie, it has 6.59" of snow on 0.24" of QPF for 27:1 ratios. I'm not holding my breath on that one. Lol that's crazy. There's a reason those plumes always disappoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Best to look at QPF and not snow. For example, those plumes give LGA 8.14" of snow on .43" QPF, which is roughly a 19:1 ratio. I don't think people should be banking on ratios quite that high, maybe 12 to 15:1, which translates to about 5-7". Fair point. My one not even really a counterpoint might be that the models might underdo the QPF. They often do with these southern/Miller A types. Some areas lose out to confluence, but these things are often quite moist. I typically shave 1-1.5 inches off the mean plume myself anyway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Precip shield is almost 100 miles north at 03z tuesday compared to 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Wow, nice hit for the Mississippi valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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