TwcMan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Is dry cold air from the north going to be a problem with this? You know that whole "it's hitting brick wall thanks to the dry air eating away at the northern advancements" thing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 To me 18z GFS looked more dynamic once it got to our part of the region. I don't see why the future runs can't go up more north or at least have a more expansive precipitation shield! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 To me 18z GFS looked more dynamic once it got to our part of the region. I don't see why the future runs go up more north or at least has a more expansive precipitation shield! You're like a more effervescent Metsfan!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Upton Experimental- Min/Max snow totals http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter HWO http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NJZ106&warncounty=NJC013&firewxzone=NJZ106&local_place1=Newark%20NJ&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook&lat=40.7241&lon=-74.1732#.VOEsbebF-So THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIALWIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNINGCRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES INEFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED. Matty told Hatty about a thing she saw WOOLY BULLY-SH... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 You're like a more effervescent Metsfan!!! Ha Anthony's new nickname should be bubbles. Wait wasn't that michael Jackson's chimp. Lol. Not sure if I see a difference. Anyway, I think there is probably enough .3 to .4 guidance to think 2 to 4 looks good from here . However the southern track has merit as there is just so much confluence pushing on its western side. I think it comes N to a point but never totally rips through. At least. That's how I see it. We got 6 to 7 down here last night , 30 miles N zilch. Sux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Finally some action i was waiting for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/epvl/epvl.gif?1424043668638 very dynamic frotno -g atm wow http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-west_goes-east/geir404&width=640&height=480 http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/epvl/epvl.gif?1424043668638 very dynamic frotno -g atm wow http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-west_goes-east/geir404&width=640&height=480 usa_None_anim.gif http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true T I noticed the heaviest precipitation in the form of snow just north of saint Louis mo, is more north than modeled! I hope that's a good trend for the storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Upton Experimental- Min/Max snow totals mmc.gif http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter HWO http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NJZ106&warncounty=NJC013&firewxzone=NJZ106&local_place1=Newark%20NJ&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook&lat=40.7241&lon=-74.1732#.VOEsbebF-So THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED. Matty told Hatty about a thing she saw WOOLY BULLY-SH... That's one heck of a spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 T I noticed the heaviest precipitation in the form of snow just north of saint Louis mo, is more north than modeled! I hope that's a good trend for the storm... Models...who needs stinkin models let's Nowcast this puppy all the way to the coast.....LOL http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/tran/tran.gif?1424045413600 Moisture Transport Hot-Spot [atm] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 DT just sort of went crazy on this, going 6-8 in NYC/LI...says he does not see a north trend but that thinks Gulf Moisture will result in expansive precip shield and moisture...sort of my thoughts from earlier but I think 6-8 is pressing it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Im very interested to see tonights 00z models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 DT just sort of went crazy on this, going 6-8 in NYC/LI...says he does not see a north trend but that thinks Gulf Moisture will result in expansive precip shield and moisture...sort of my thoughts from earlier but I think 6-8 is pressing it here.thats like the high end for a system like this. It could happen if we get into that 25DBZ precip. rates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Upton Experimental- Min/Max snow totals mmc.gif http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter HWO http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NJZ106&warncounty=NJC013&firewxzone=NJZ106&local_place1=Newark%20NJ&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook&lat=40.7241&lon=-74.1732#.VOEsbebF-So THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED. Matty told Hatty about a thing she saw WOOLY BULLY-SH... Seriously wonder what those min max maps represent on the probability distribution curve, ie the Cumulative Density Function, is it 5%/95%? Because we've fallen short of the min a few times, including last night's debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Seriously wonder what those min max maps represent on the probability distribution curve, ie the Cumulative Density Function, is it 5%/95%? Because we've fallen short of the min a few times, including last night's debacle. Dan....yeah its on the percentile SnowAmt 10 Prcntl--min SnowAmt 90 Prcntl--max --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- http://preview.weather.gov/graphical/ dm is short...one inch on prog for warning level NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Seriously wonder what those min max maps represent on the probability distribution curve, ie the Cumulative Density Function, is it 5%/95%? Because we've fallen short of the min a few times, including last night's debacle. Yea was just thinking that as the minimum on that function was not a coating to an inch for NYC N&W! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Dan....yeah its on the percentile SnowAmt 10 Prcntl--min SnowAmt 90 Prcntl--max --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- tns.gif http://preview.weather.gov/graphical/ dm is short...one inch on prog for warning level NYC Thanks man, always got the goods. Think higher chance of warning snow with this one, though still wouldn't forecast it Climb baby, Climb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Just took a peek at latest GGEM and its dangerously close, I'm sure you guys covered this earlier but I was working Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Thanks man, always got the goods. Think higher chance of warning snow with this one, though still wouldn't forecast it Climb baby, Climb Watch watches should be posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Just took a peek at latest GGEM and its dangerously close, I'm sure you guys covered this earlier but I was working Dangerously close to what???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Nice 11/11/87 slash 1/26/87 by the SREFs...literally hit DC/Boston but try to avoid us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Dangerously close to what???? To a decent hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Nice 11/11/87 slash 1/26/87 by the SREFs...literally hit DC/Boston but try to avoid us. Naturally. And here I was, getting a bit excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Nice 11/11/87 slash 1/26/87 by the SREFs...literally hit DC/Boston but try to avoid us. no offense goose but the SREFs look very solid for NYC---what are you looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Naturally. And here I was, getting a bit excited. They are not bad at all but there is definitely a noticeable late development and perhaps turn NNE of the low that gets Boston in on it more than some of the previous runs did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 no offense goose but the SREFs look very solid for NYC---what are you looking at? Yeah, I just clarified in the other post they are not by any means bad but more jokingly that they're trying desperately now to hit Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Here's a map that's not listed often, SREF greater than 6" probability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Here's a map that's not listed often, SREF greater than 6" probability OC thats good ..real good bring us the 21Z......update when you get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yeah, I just clarified in the other post they are not by any means bad but more jokingly that they're trying desperately now to hit Boston. ah oh my bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 ARW + NMM have heavy snow areawide by 0700 Tuesday morning Btw the two pics are 2 seperate model depictions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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