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Feb 17 Miller A Threat


Zelocita Weather

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Was just about to say; The srerfs def ticked north, and are wetter with qpf for the NYC Metro area.

I don't really trust the SREFs as they've been pretty bad altogether (but what model really hasn't aside from a couple short terms?).....but it is good I guess that they have made a nice shift N and most of the members seem even above the mean. Also, areas to the N and W are also 6-10".....that's been pretty rare as most storms recently have showed such a sharp cutoff west of Long Island/NYC

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Your hugging 1 model... There's several models that don't show much for anyone North of the city.. Ok I'll give you 1-3. Dusting to an inch is just being conservated, cause usually the northern fringe of these progressive lows fall as either virga or are broken up by the mountains

No way in hell am I hugging one model!!! All models have at least 2-4 for the LHV and more towards NYC... Your area is much different!

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SACRUS, any chance that maybe you can take this qpf model output from say, 24, 48 and 72 hours out and make some sort of spreadsheet to see how they verified? Or if someone is really good with that sort of thing maybe they could take this info and do that? If not this winter, then even in spring, etc.....would really be cool and would be a great way to show model accuracy

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Based on 12Z guidance seems bidding starts at 2-4" for NNJ and NYC metro area.

Flow is fast and progressive . Looks like at 12 hour event at best from start to finish.

These events tend to be even quicker. I think it's an 8 hour storm. Zips in and out. Drops 2-6" west to east.

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