Metsfan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 What do the models show QPF wise for KMSV in the Catskills? The sref mean is around .25 of an inch for kmsv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Was just about to say; The srerfs def ticked north, and are wetter with qpf for the NYC Metro area. Its not too early to be looking at SREFs ? Thought they were a 24 hour prior range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Was just about to say; The srerfs def ticked north, and are wetter with qpf for the NYC Metro area. I don't really trust the SREFs as they've been pretty bad altogether (but what model really hasn't aside from a couple short terms?).....but it is good I guess that they have made a nice shift N and most of the members seem even above the mean. Also, areas to the N and W are also 6-10".....that's been pretty rare as most storms recently have showed such a sharp cutoff west of Long Island/NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Your hugging 1 model... There's several models that don't show much for anyone North of the city.. Ok I'll give you 1-3. Dusting to an inch is just being conservated, cause usually the northern fringe of these progressive lows fall as either virga or are broken up by the mountains No way in hell am I hugging one model!!! All models have at least 2-4 for the LHV and more towards NYC... Your area is much different! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 hearing euro ens look good...can anyone confirm? Match the op. Great timing...every flake will stick temps in the teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 EURO EPS for northern 1/2 of NJ is 1-4" from NW to SE. Mean and control almost exactly the same. 6" line on each is from roughly ACY to CC, south of all of LI. 1-2" NE PA TO NW CT. Did not look at individual members yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I get the impression that even if this baby comes North we aren't looking at a major event due to the lack of blocking. Forgive me if I'm wrong (clearly im a noob) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 SACRUS, any chance that maybe you can take this qpf model output from say, 24, 48 and 72 hours out and make some sort of spreadsheet to see how they verified? Or if someone is really good with that sort of thing maybe they could take this info and do that? If not this winter, then even in spring, etc.....would really be cool and would be a great way to show model accuracy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 EURO EPS for northern 1/2 of NJ is 1-4" from NW to SE. Mean and control almost exactly the same. 6" line on each is from roughly ACY to CC, south of all of LI. 1-2" NE PA TO NW CT. Did not look at individual members yet. CC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 CC? Cape cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 10 members have 1-2" NYC and 3 bring the 6" line just to doorstep of city. Just 1 member gets the 6" line into and just north of city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 10 members have 1-2" NYC and 3 bring the 6" line just to doorstep of city. Just 1 member gets the 6" line into and just north of city. What about the other 37 members? I'm sure it's more of the same. I haven't even looked. Thanks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I get the impression that even if this baby comes North we aren't looking at a major event due to the lack of blocking. Forgive me if I'm wrong (clearly im a noob) Lol why are u KU hunting so hard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 NAM must be bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Based on 12Z guidance seems bidding starts at 2-4" for NNJ and NYC metro area. Flow is fast and progressive . Looks like at 12 hour event at best from start to finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 What about the other 37 members? I'm sure it's more of the same. I haven't even looked. Thanks for posting. safe to say they contribute the most to the "mean" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 NAM must be bad... Too early to tell, looks roughly the same to me so far....maybe a touch north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Lol why are u KU hunting so hard? It wasn't that bad of question. The lack of blocking allows the storm to hit quickly. It could still drop some decent accumulations if it came north though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yes SACRUS, good job and thank you.....you bring a lot of great info to the board with absolutely no "filler" or banter. Straight and to the point. It is appreciated Ditto all of the above. No drama, just the cold hard facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Based on 12Z guidance seems bidding starts at 2-4" for NNJ and NYC metro area. Flow is fast and progressive . Looks like at 12 hour event at best from start to finish. These events tend to be even quicker. I think it's an 8 hour storm. Zips in and out. Drops 2-6" west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LkHopatGuy Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Kudos for all the years you have been doing this SARCUS. Can't be said enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 18z NAM is a glancing blow for NYC east. NYC South into central/Southern NJ do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 18z NAM is a glancing blow for NYC east. NYC South into central/Southern NJ do well. So North End of NJ a complete miss, maybe a coating if that....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 2-4" ne nj /c nj, NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 So North End of NJ a complete miss, maybe a coating if that....? 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 So North End of NJ a complete miss, maybe a coating if that....?gets 3 in. up to nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 18z NAM is a glancing blow for NYC east. NYC South into central/Southern NJ do well.that does make sense. You say it's a blow for nyc and east but nyc and south do well. So how does nyc do here bud? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That wouldn't be bad. So if it ticks more North better end result for North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Lol why are u KU hunting so hard? Who said anything about a KU? Just trying to understand and learn. It seems like people are begging that this comes North and to me there's not a huge difference between 3 inches and 6 that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 that does make sense. You say it's a blow for nyc and east but nyc and south do well. So how does nyc do here bud? Should have not included NYC in that statement.NYC 1-2'' maybe 3''. South of NYC in the 4-6 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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