SACRUS Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Sacrus - if I haven't said it before, thanks for doing these model run summaries - they're invaluable. My pleasure. Makes it easier and ive been seeing how well a blend of all the guidance performs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Jma, NAVGEM, GGEM, are all OTS scrapers, NAM is the closest of any of the models currently, unfortunately the concesnsus so far is a scrape job, all depends how close, I would say anyone North of nyc is a dusting to an inch That's ok, we north and west folks are used to getting fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1424025340146 Critical Weather Day http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/cwd/ http://www.srh.noaa.gov/topics/attach/html/ssd99-8.htm http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/validProds.php?node=kwno∏=adm won't take much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 H5 looks very favorable for at least some snow around the NYC area. Classic PV over Hudson Bay and a temp retreating 50/50 low. Models did not have the 50/50 several days ago. NAO is looking slight pos which would go against any big numbers right now (12"+).... Would say 3-6" type event right now but 5H needs to be watched carefully as always... Don't think this escapes totally without some snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Dusting to an inch maybe 80 miles or so NW of the city... But definitely not from the city south and north for about 50 miles... Come on be realistic here!! Your hugging 1 model... There's several models that don't show much for anyone North of the city.. Ok I'll give you 1-3. Dusting to an inch is just being conservated, cause usually the northern fringe of these progressive lows fall as either virga or are broken up by the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Your hugging 1 model... There's several models that don't show much for anyone North of the city.. Ok I'll give you 1-3. Dusting to an inch is just being conservated, cause usually the northern fringe of these progressive lows fall as either virga or are broken up by the mountains Or a mesoscale high pressure area comes out of nowhere like what happened yesterday. There are multiple avenues towards a screwjob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Given lack of classic blocking (a -NAO) and the speed of the jet this will be a close one. Just that type of winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GEFS is very slightly north of OP. looks to match for the most part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It's gonna come north. I heard a red tagger in the SNE say this was like a SWFE shifted south and that it will tick north as we get closer. I think NYC gets 6" easily with this maybe more. I think you easily get 8 inches plus. So as me to. Great point about the SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYI91Tavares Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Would be nice to see central Suffolk pick up some snow after whiffing with around 1.8 yesterday. Funny, this will be less hyped out here and probably put down more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Or a mesoscale high pressure area comes out of nowhere like what happened yesterday. There are multiple avenues towards a screwjob. Can you explain this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 SREFs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I don't envision a big move north, what I do see is maybe a big expansive area of surprisingly decent ratio snows due to the high in place north of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I don't envision a big move north, what I do see is maybe a big expansive area of surprisingly decent ratio snows due to the high in place north of the system. Is there any way it turns up the coast and slows down the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 What kind of timing do we see for any snow to start. I know its too early for this type of call but maybe a general idea of some type. Things change from hour to hour. My location is Clifton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Srefs look further northwest with low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Srefs look further northwest with low. Yep. Hopefully the 18z runs follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Can you explain this? I wish I could find the quote from the NWS, but from their AFD yesterday, they said that a meso high that was not forecasted too well slipped in and broke up the precip shield due to subsidence, or sinking air, hence the lower than predicted snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I wish I could find the quote from the NWS, but from their AFD yesterday, they said that a meso high that was not forecasted too well slipped in and broke up the precip shield due to subsidence, or sinking air, hence the lower than predicted snow. I think thats just overthinking it, to me the break in the action was well modeled, the WAA stuff moved out and then the norlun never hit us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Sacrus - if I haven't said it before, thanks for doing these model run summaries - they're invaluable. ditto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 New srefs mean looks identical to the euro qpf maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 SREFS plumes are 6-10" throughout the area.....up from 4-7" from last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Sacrus - if I haven't said it before, thanks for doing these model run summaries - they're invaluable. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 SREFS plumes are 6-10" throughout the area.....up from 4-7" from last run Was just about to say; The srerfs def ticked north, and are wetter with qpf for the NYC Metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This Yes SACRUS, good job and thank you.....you bring a lot of great info to the board with absolutely no "filler" or banter. Straight and to the point. It is appreciated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yes SACRUS, good job and thank you.....you bring a lot of great info to the board with absolutely no "filler" or banter. Straight and to the point. It is appreciated The guy is all business! Great poster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think thats just overthinking it, to me the break in the action was well modeled, the WAA stuff moved out and then the norlun never hit us I wasn't expecting this to happen yesterday. 4-8 inch forecast, and my area got a coating to a third of and inch in Western Suffolk County, NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 hearing euro ens look good...can anyone confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 What do the models show QPF wise for KMSV in the Catskills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 My pleasure. Makes it easier and ive been seeing how well a blend of all the guidance performs. Only a couple more steps and you might be able to answer/address my question in the separate thread I posted, asking about model verification scores for actual snowstorms (not just overall, including the 300+ days of the year that don't really matter) and even for actual snowstorms for the NYC area. Here's the thread link if you haven't seen it... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45615-do-model-verification-scores-exist-for-actual-east-coast-snowstorms/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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