allgame830 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This storm will also have higher ratios then 10:1 Yes I would tend to think ratios shouldn't be a problem since wind is not an issue... However I don't know about the snow growth which usually needs to be around -12 to -16? What are the models showing in regards to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looks to have cut back a bit if the 0 z posted snow.map is correct which brought 6 to the CT coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Temp should be in the single digits to low teens, so should be solid ratios as well. Ratios depend on temps where the snowflakes are made, not the surface. At 700mb the temps should be -12C or so for best ratios. Colder than that and you have needle/sand flakes that are 10-1 at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Hopefully atleast another 50 mile tick nw tonight at 00z. If not, looks like a 2-4 inch event for a good portion of the area, more south and east of the turnpike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 What does D.C get?Euro prints out .7 of liquid for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Hopefully atleast another 50 mile tick nw tonight at 00z. If not, looks like a 2-4 inch event for a good portion of the area, more south and east of the turnpike Could be more due to ratios which could be 15-20:1! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Actually Euro has inverted trough again for Thursday/Friday!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Actually Euro has inverted trough again for Thursday!!!!!I really don't wanna hear this inverted trough word again ahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 Actually Euro has inverted trough again for Thursday!!!!! Nothing worse than inverted trofs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Euro prints out .7 of liquid for them I hope it works out for them they need a break. I can't ignore the north trend this year though and we're actually in a good spot right now in case it strikes again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Could be more due to ratios which could be 15-20:1! Ratios were suppose to be outstanding for this last storm as well, and snow growth was awful... 2.4" melted equivalent was .24" and that's all the way up here, never count on ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Didn't get a good look at the gfs but the euro has snow moving in from south to north 1-3am Tuesday morning. Heaviest during morning commute Probably ends up moving in a bit quicker than that. I would love a snow-day work from home situation on Wednesday, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Ratios were suppose to be outstanding for this last storm as well, and snow growth was awful... 2.4" melted equivalent was .24" and that's all the way up here, never count on ratios To much wind- cuts back ratios dramatically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 To much wind- cuts back ratios dramatically During the majority of my snowfall, winds were almost non-existent, growth just wasn't that great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 If you go into the Philly forum Someone posted a eurowx map there. The 6 inch line is just south of 78 on the euro...those maps usually include ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The euro actually came south pretty far from its last run, didn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The euro actually came south pretty far from its last run, didn't it? Euro would still need a 100+ mile shift west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 If you go into the Philly forum Someone posted a eurowx map there. The 6 inch line is just south of 78 on the euro...those maps usually include ratiosThats 10:1 ratios..looking at 12:1 or maybe more here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Euro would still need a 100+ mile shift west This new run puts it in line with other guidance. 00z I believe was around 6-8" for much of the area. This run is 3-5" for most. A solid snowfall nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12Z and 0Z Euro Snow Map for comparison sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 During the majority of my snowfall, winds were almost non-existent, growth just wasn't that greatTrue, the wind didn't pick up around here until after the snow had already ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Jma, NAVGEM, GGEM, are all OTS scrapers, NAM is the closest of any of the models currently, unfortunately the concesnsus so far is a scrape job, all depends how close, I would say anyone North of nyc is a dusting to an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12Z Summary: Tue (AM-PM) 2/17 QPF NYC region ( mainly a NW to SE gradient) SREF: 0.25 - 0.50 NAM: 020 - 0.50 GFS: 0.15 - 0.40 GGEM: 0.10 - 0.30 UMKET : 0.35 - 0.65 ECM: 0.30 - 070 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GGEM UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 End result for Boston would be severe flooding, Correct.? Yea, especially if temps spiked into the 50s/60s with heavy rain Temps in the 50s/60s would lead to some urban flooding, but for the most part the incredible snowpack they have will absorb the rain (especially, so if temps are in the 30s/40s) with only a small amount of melting and would lead to even further stress on roofs, given the added weight from the rain Boston really needs a relatively dry and mild early spring to avoid either major flooding or unprecedented roof cave-ins. I assume places like Maine and the snow belt have to worry about roofs every year - I'm guessing the answer is removing much of the snow from the roofs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Jma, NAVGEM, GGEM, are all OTS scrapers, NAM is the closest of any of the models currently, unfortunately the concesnsus so far is a scrape job, all depends how close, I would say anyone North of nyc is a dusting to an inch It's gonna come north. I heard a red tagger in the SNE say this was like a SWFE shifted south and that it will tick north as we get closer. I think NYC gets 6" easily with this maybe more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 UKMET is also 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12Z Summary: Tue (AM-PM) 2/17 QPF NYC region ( mainly a NW to SE gradient) SREF: 0.25 - 0.50 NAM: 020 - 0.50 GFS: 0.15 - 0.40 GGEM: 0.10 - 0.30 UMKET : 0.35 - 0.65 ECM: 0.30 - 070 Sacrus - if I haven't said it before, thanks for doing these model run summaries - they're invaluable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It's gonna come north. I heard a red tagger in the SNE say this was like a SWFE shifted south and that it will tick north as we get closer. I think NYC gets 6" easily with this maybe more. I've heard red taggers make promises all year, no offence to any of them here, I truely appreciate their input, but most of which never come true, I've heard them say be patient the norlun is taking shape, be patient that mesoscale band is pushing west!, be patient the coastal hasn't taken over yet, lol I refuse to ignore a good model concesnsus on where this things going...now could this very well come North.. Yes absolutely it's been the seasonal trend. but until I see any major trends (not 10-30 miles here and there) then I'll use the models to make my assumptions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Jma, NAVGEM, GGEM, are all OTS scrapers, NAM is the closest of any of the models currently, unfortunately the concesnsus so far is a scrape job, all depends how close, I would say anyone North of nyc is a dusting to an inch Dusting to an inch maybe 80 miles or so NW of the city... But definitely not from the city south and north for about 50 miles... Come on be realistic here!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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