NEG NAO Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I wouldn't sleep on a bit of a north trend especially for the areas just inland away from the coast (nothing huge, but enough to suggest something more on the 3-5 or 3-6 range). It looks like while the flow is quick/progressive, the high presses off just enough to the north. I would NOT discount the possibility of a north trend as we approach this event - the trend most of the winter has been north plus just a few days ago the models were hinting at possible mixing issues in portions of the metro - indicies do not support a suppressed solution at this time and model guidance for the most part has been unreliable to say the least this winter right up to the last minute ............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 No, cutters pass to our west, so while we might initially start with snow, warm air eventually floods in and wins out. If we had a big time lakes cutter, Boston would be in serious trouble. End result for Boston would be severe flooding, Correct.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 End result for Boston would be severe flooding, Correct.? Yea, especially if temps spiked into the 50s/60s with heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Well that's cool i learned something new. Thanks guys. As time goes by il be on here more to learn some more stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yea, especially if temps spiked into the 50s/60s with heavy rain Also in alot of situations the pattern ends with a ridge in the east and a big rain storm.. But hopefully for their sake it is gradual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Well that's cool i learned something new. Thanks guys. As time goes by il be on here more to learn some more stuff. great attitude. Welcome aboard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I would NOT discount the possibility of a north trend as we approach this event - the trend most of the winter has been north plus just a few days ago the models were hinting at possible mixing issues in portions of the metro - indicies do not support a suppressed solution at this time and model guidance for the most part has been unreliable to say the least this winter right up to the last minute ............ I concur. The models have been showing tremendous variance/spread from run to run in terms of placement and evolution. I do think that the "mix" solution of a few days ago can probably be tossed, but changes for a significant event for coastal areas is very much in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Well if the north trend works out then we'll be jackpotting in 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 How many miles does this have to come north in order to jackpot us are we talking 100 miles 150, ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 How many miles does this have to come north in order to jackpot us are we talking 100 miles 150, ?? For you 100 miles, C NJ 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Ggem was a scraper but it was a bump north from its own prior run. As was 12z gfs from 6z. If we see less confluence from the 50/50, we will see this tick north imo. That's been the trend with these systems tracking ene/ne. Let's see what the euro shows Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Curious about the GFS ensembles too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Curious about the GFS ensembles tooCMc ensembles were further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 CMc ensembles were further north Further north of the op or the previous ensemble run? ...or both? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Euro is the same from what I can see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Unfortunately this euro run will be the exact track to the mile that the storm takes. Let's see what she tells us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Euro .5 to Ttn .25 to the lower Hudson valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 4-6 from turnpike east 2-4 nw burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 4-6 from turnpike east 2-4 nw burbs Oye the suspense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Euro is 4-6" for NYC, CNJ and LI. Less N&W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Solid trends on the Euro for the area. Even with being progged as a quick mover and progressive flow, these Miller A's can sometimes overperform in the moisture feed and snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This storm will also have higher ratios then 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 4-6 from turnpike east 2-4 nw burbs Same timing as gfs roughly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Same timing as gfs roughly? Didn't get a good look at the gfs but the euro has snow moving in from south to north 1-3am Tuesday morning. Heaviest during morning commute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Didn't get a good look at the gfs but the euro has snow moving in from south to north 1-3am Tuesday morning. Heaviest during morning commute Temp should be in the single digits to low teens, so should be solid ratios as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 This storm will also have higher ratios then 10:1 Miller a storms almost always have low ratios (10-12:1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Temp should be in the single digits to low teens, so should be solid ratios as well. Yes! Great point. Ratios will be decent and less wind this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Miller a storms almost always have low ratios (10-12:1) Not true. 2/11/06 was a Miller A and had huge ratios in NYC, at least 15:1. That's how Central Park got to its record total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Miller a storms almost always have low ratios (10-12:1) Not with these temperatures and no wind - ratios will be higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 What does D.C get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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