Allsnow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Gfs has .25 back to the turnpike in nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Sv maps 2-4 Nw jersey 1-2 and LHV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Bumped nw from 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looking like 2-4 nothing to write home about, hopefully this one trends better as we get closer. Have to see what impact todays storm has on pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The tendency all winter has been for models to overestimate the cold flow from the north, which subsequently has allowed surface lows to track further north than progged. It's going to be interesting to see if that trend continues. We have seen These things shift north in only a matter of a couple of runs lately, especially immediately following a prior low pressure system passing by our latitude. That would be my worry if I lived in the lower-mid mid Atlantic right now Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 is this discussion Tuesday or Wednesday - Please clarify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Tuesday into Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 is this discussion Tuesday or Wednesday - Please clarify Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 is there a second wave with Artic front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 UKMET and GGEM should be coming out soon correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 UKMET and GGEM should be coming out soon correct? Yes. There's a pinned thread with that information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm assuming ggem is like 1-3"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12Z Summary: Tue (AM-PM) 2/17 QPF NYC region SREF: 0.25 - 0.50 (West to East) NAM: 020 - 0.50 (west to east) GFS: 0.15 - 0.40 (west to east) RGEM : 0.15 - 0.30 (thru 48) GGEM: 0.10 - 0.30) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm assuming ggem is like 1-3"? Looks like it NYC is about 0.20 0.15 into CNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm assuming ggem is like 1-3"? Yeah, looks like it just grazes us. Coastal nj and Long Island do the best obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This looks to be a scraper imho. 1-3, 2-4 type of deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 between runs take a look here - pac feed atm http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-west_goes-east/goes-west_16km_psir3&width=640&height=480 http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/goes-west_goes-east.asp Watch things come together today... a very nice start-imo http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/91fwbgus.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 1-3 a safe call at this range. Obvious more sharp cutoffs possible in this setup over 20 - 30 miles. Another nail biter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 between runs take a look here - pac feed atm http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-west_goes-east/goes-west_16km_psir3&width=640&height=480 http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/goes-west_goes-east.asp Watch things come together today... a very nice start-imo ram.gif http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/91fwbgus.gif DM, how do you think this storm is going to develop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I wouldn't sleep on a bit of a north trend especially for the areas just inland away from the coast (nothing huge, but enough to suggest something more on the 3-5 or 3-6 range). It looks like while the flow is quick/progressive, the high presses off just enough to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 UK is a moderate hit NYC / LI decent hit 0.25 - 0.50 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 DM, how do you think this storm is going to develop? 99 I am pulling for warning level snow for our area.... that moisture pool loop from my last post helps the system stay healthy as she tracks east north ticks overnight ,,, a big bonus dm WPC track leans on the North and West side of the clusters-atm lets see what the updated graphic shows http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 99 I am pulling for warning level snow for our area.... that moisture pool loop from my last post helps the system stay healthy as she tracks east north ticks overnight ,,, a big bonus dm WPC track leans on the North and West side of the clusters-atm lets see what the updated graphic shows http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif I hope so. With the PNA looking to plummet and without the Nao and AO we may be looking at cutters soon.long range GFS shows this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I hope so. With the PNA looking to plummet and without the Nao and AO we may be looking at cutters soon.long range GFS shows this. Sorry to ask but i love Winter myself. But when you guys mention a Cutter or Cutters what do you mean exactly. Its a miss or something? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Sorry to ask but i love Winter myself. But when you guys mention a Cutter or Cutters what do you mean exactly. Its a miss or something? Thanks! Cutters cut into the lakes giving us copious amounts of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Sorry to ask but i love Winter myself. But when you guys mention a Cutter or Cutters what do you mean exactly. Its a miss or something? Thanks! A storm that cuts to the Great Lakes, thus sending warm air into the region. Lake cutter events are mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 So in this case when you have a cutter or cutters in long range specially in winter time with cold air around means more moisture in a system which can produce more snow. Would this make sense? Im very new to learning this stuff as a hobby so forgive me for anything i say that doesn't make sense. I accept corrections 24/7 xD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 A storm that cuts to the Great Lakes, thus sending warm air into the region. Lake cutter events are mostly rain. Ah okay. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 So in this case when you have a cutter or cutters in long range specially in winter time with cold air around means more moisture in a system which can produce more snow. Would this make sense? Im very new to learning this stuff as a hobby so forgive me for anything i say that doesn't make sense. I accept corrections 24/7 xD No, cutters pass to our west, so while we might initially start with snow, warm air eventually floods in and wins out. If we had a big time lakes cutter, Boston would be in serious trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GGEM scrapes the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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