uncle W Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I can't see a 1/17/94 type event coming up...it had over an inch and a half of precipitation...it started as snow after a low around ten...after an inch fell it changed to freezing rain and plain rain when temperatures went above freezing...The high temp hit 47 in NYC that evening...The wind shifted before midnight and temps crashed and rain changed to wet snow...less than an inch accumulated...this ended in the early morning hours on the 18th...another cold wave with snow squalls hit during the afternoon...temps plunged to below zero... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 So now we have to be faced with a potential cutter with epic torchy temps and rain? I thought suppression and overwhelmingly cold air was the primary concern with any storms for next week. Wow, we sure can't win this year. It's like a week away or better. We struggle with storms inside 3 days let alone 7-8. It's possible it could cutt though the antecedent cold will be difficult to eliminate. I could see another ice situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 gfs is really diving in the energy out west. Inland runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 996 over nnj. Boston would float away if true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 the euro looks like 6+ for all of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Now the 0z Euro went to the GFS/CMC more amped idea of snow to rain. So the solution would be bitter cold before warming up briefly and more cold after somewhat like the 94 example. We just can't handle any amplitude from the southern stream with a +AO. We need to cash in on the front end thump like the previous similar storms this season. The system is squeezed between a frigid air mass that is leaving and the crashing back in of the entire vortex on day 9 . KNYC goes from 5 to 40 in 18 hours on the Euro and the city and coast go to rain . What we need is for this to slow down and allow for HP to build through the lakes to allow the confluence to keep the center south . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yeah, the Arctic high slips off the East Coast at the wrong time on the 0z runs allowing the low to come too far west. Look at the 500 . This thing wedges itself between 2 deep troughs . That's just bad timing . 12 hours slower and the day 8 plus vortex probably leans on it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Look at the 500 . This thing wedges itself between 2 deep troughs . That's just bad timing . 12 hours slower and the day 8 plus vortex probably leans on it . Look at the 500 . This thing wedges itself between 2 deep troughs . That's just bad timing . 12 hours slower and the day 8 plus vortex probably leans on it . Still plenty of time tho no? I mean we have to get thru the Sunday storm first and who knows what kind of effect that will have. Wouldnt be surprised if it did evolve this way however, pattern this year def has supported it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 This is a large storm in terms of how much area of the country it could potentially cover....This is the best shot all season for a true thump-storm. There is also a nice shot of something towards the end of next week too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Still plenty of time tho no? I mean we have to get thru the Sunday storm first and who knows what kind of effect that will have. Wouldnt be surprised if it did evolve this way however, pattern this year def has supported it. All you need is this to either slow down 12 hours , or have the Vortex roll back in 12 hours faster and you push the SLP further S and probably keep the mid level coastal warmth at bay . Only discussing the OP inside the pattern sitting here 7 days out . Not a forecast man . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 All you need is this to either slow down 12 hours , or have the Vortex roll back in 12 hours faster and you push the SLP further S and probably keep the mid level coastal warmth at bay . Only discussing the OP inside the pattern sitting here 7 days out . Not a forecast man . I hear ya, forecast for 7 days out this year is almost like making a winter forecast in the Fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 That's what happens in a +AO pattern. . For the record you are already N of 30 inches for the year and on your way to 40 . In what has been a pos AO winter . This year will stand out when you total up snowfall vs where the AO ends up for the winter overall . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 92/93 was also a tremendous year in Tahoe. Bet they would wonder what's wrong this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 This is our snowstorm right here......... max temp anom day 3-7 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif you can't draw it up any better http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/mslp_f168_us.html http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MX_MN_POP_wbg.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 While this winter will be unique as per the statistics for +AO winters, I think it was fairly clear that we'd perform better than most +AO winters due to the Pacific EPO / PNA regime. If one examines prior winters which featured a dominant +NAO / AO signal, for the most part, those years did not feature a robust / anomalous -EPO / +PNA couplet. The very strong poleward ridging through Alaska signaled the likelihood of cross polar flow into the eastern / central US, and also a good chance for numerous short waves diving southward from Canada due to the highly meridional flow. These waves have allowed for the enormous New England snowfall, and the lack of NAO / AO blocking has prevented these waves from becoming major PHL-NYC snowstorms as well. However, the activity of the pattern is such that we're seeing countless chances to gradually rack up snowfall in our area via the northern stream short waves. Going forward, as long as the potent -EPO / +PNA persists, with occasional east based -NAO ridging, our area will continue to see snow chances. Will they be major? Possibly not, but an above normal snowfall season in Central Park (28"+) still looks likely to me. Very rarely do we combine a strong -EPO / PNA couplet with a strong +NAO / AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Looks like the GFS is going to come in with a wildly different solution. It took all that energy that was bottled up in the southwest and said, "Hey I wonder what happens if I phase that all in" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Broad surface low near Dallas with a third piece dropping into the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Broad surface low near Dallas with a third piece dropping into the trough. hope it doesn't cut b/w those 2 arctic highs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Night and day at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Great cad signature showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Moderate snow on Tuesday from the WAA. Struggling to get NE of the city so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Precip type issues this run for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 DC goes front end dump to heavy rain, ouch. They can't buy a storm there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The last piece phases in and the mid-level jet just explodes to our southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Big snows for interior New England. Rain along 95 from DC to Boston. What happens to 40" snowpacks when 3" of rain falls on them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Big snows for interior New England. Rain along 95 from DC to Boston. What happens to 40" snowpacks when 3" of rain falls on them? Flash floods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Flash floods. That much snow could retain quite a bit of additional water, surely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Never really got one consolidated surface low. Many pieces ride up the jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 That much snow could retain quite a bit of additional water, surely? Temps soar to almost 50F on the Cape. Goodbye snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Temps soar to almost 50F on the Cape. Goodbye snowpack. verbatim yes, still 6 days to go....lots can and will change. One thing is for sure, when the southern stream gets involved we seem to warm up and rain (guess it makes sense with no blocking.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.