RU848789 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Mt. Holly has already posted a snowfall map for Mon night/Tuesday, showing up to 4" in coastal NJ/DE, but their AFD mentions a 2-7" snowfall. Upton has no map now, but it looks like another LI/eastern CT special, unless this trends further NW. TUESDAY...STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF GULF COAST LOWPRESSURE, WHETHER ITS A GRAZER OUT TO SEA OR FULL ON AS A NEWDRACING COASTAL LOW. SINCE THE RAPIDLY SHARPENING TROF ALOFT IS SOFAR WEST (85 WEST LONGITUDE AT 12Z WED), AM ESTIMATING THAT THISGULF COAST SYSTEM SHOULD BE SWEPT MORE NORTHWARD THAN EASTWARD.THEREFORE, AM SUSPECTING A 2-7 INCH SNOW EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF OURAREA, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I95. HOPEFULLY THERE WILL MORE CONSENSUSTHIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR A BIT ABOVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 00z Euro ensembles seem to be on board, pretty much all clustered near Delmarva coast then going NE from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 For the record, and coming from a huge nws defender, i dont care how impassioned your defense of the nws is, if you cant do it without the insults (no matter how warranted), it has no place here. Youre more than welcome to try again without the name calling. And i left the other post up as an example of how i intend to moderate the forum, especially for this influx of what i can only guess are new accuweather posters. I dont have the time nor the energy to PM each poster individually, and seeing as how some of them are most likely kids...expecting them to know how to act here and warning/suspending them without any warning is a bit unfair. Also for the record, if you need to call someone a big doodyhead, the banter thread is a good place to try. ok, thanks for explaining. I'll reconstruct the original defense, without the insult. But after I get a little sleep, lol - running on fumes right now. So, you're saying I can insult people in the banter threads? I don't think I've ever visited one of those threads - might have to now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 ok, thanks for explaining. I'll reconstruct the original defense, without the insult. But after I get a little sleep, lol - running on fumes right now. So, you're saying I can insult people in the banter threads? I don't think I've ever visited one of those threads - might have to now... Well im not saying you should...im just saying i dont care all that much lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 00z Euro ensembles seem to be on board, pretty much all clustered near Delmarva coast then going NE from there The QPF is largely lower than the Op which has .55 at NYC, right now I would put the chances of 6 inches at NYC fairly low with this but 4 is certainly possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The QPF is largely lower than the Op which has .55 at NYC, right now I would put the chances of 6 inches at NYC fairly low with this but 4 is certainly possible Honestly, I haven't looked into this one too much. Been trying to take them one at a time, but that sounds very reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Mt. Holly has already posted a snowfall map for Mon night/Tuesday, showing up to 4" in coastal NJ/DE, but their AFD mentions a 2-7" snowfall. Upton's map is also below - another LI/eastern CT special, unless this trends further NW. TUESDAY...STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF GULF COAST LOW PRESSURE, WHETHER ITS A GRAZER OUT TO SEA OR FULL ON AS A NEWD RACING COASTAL LOW. SINCE THE RAPIDLY SHARPENING TROF ALOFT IS SO FAR WEST (85 WEST LONGITUDE AT 12Z WED), AM ESTIMATING THAT THIS GULF COAST SYSTEM SHOULD BE SWEPT MORE NORTHWARD THAN EASTWARD. THEREFORE, AM SUSPECTING A 2-7 INCH SNOW EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I95. HOPEFULLY THERE WILL MORE CONSENSUS THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR A BIT ABOVE. Just an FYI, that Upton map is only through 1pm today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The QPF is largely lower than the Op which has .55 at NYC, right now I would put the chances of 6 inches at NYC fairly low with this but 4 is certainly possible[/quot If this is a miller A, wouldn't it be loaded with moisture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Just an FYI, that Upton map is only through 1pm today. Mike - my bad, thanks - getting a little punchy I guess - I deleted the Upton map from my post; feel free to do the same... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The QPF is largely lower than the Op which has .55 at NYC, right now I would put the chances of 6 inches at NYC fairly low with this but 4 is certainly possible[/quot If this is a miller A, wouldn't it be loaded with moisture? Its moving way too quickly and does not really organize a whole lot til its way north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Its a fast mover. But should tick north west. Which has multi model support , dont know why people are dismissing it. Trough orientation should allow a north and north west correction as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Its moving way too quickly and does not really organize a whole lot til its way north Snowgoose and other red taggers, is there any chance at 6-10 inches for LI if everything worked out right ? Also this cold and snowy pattern appears to last another 4 weeks at least based on teleconnectors, +PNA, -EPO and Arctic air entrenched in the area for a very long time ahead. No end in sight. We will have plenty of opportunities the next 4-6 weeks for tons of snow, you have to agree with that. I know we won't catch up to Boston, but u never know until it's over. My guess is 55-60 inches of new snow between 2/16-4/10. Think we can do it ? My gut feeling is 10-14 inches for LI for the Miller A on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This one is still worth watching since Upton and some mets on this forum think a northward trend is in the offing. The models have bounced back and forth for days from big hit to OTS, so I'm guessing we have to wait again until the day before the event (Monday) to get a good sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightknights Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This one is still worth watching since Upton and some mets on this forum think a northward trend is in the offing. The models have bounced back and forth for days from big hit to OTS, so I'm guessing we have to wait again until the day before the event (Monday) to get a good sense. Them putting up snow maps is ludicrous. Hey Charlie Brown meet Lucy. They have not learned one thing they should go back to putting up snow maps within 24 hrs of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=uv250&runtime=2015021506&fh=60&xpos=0&ypos=266.6666666666667 last three GEFS ENS for 1:00pm Tues....see that lets get one more tick...we can do it! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015021506/gfs-ens_z500_mslp_us_11.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nam gets .25 up to ewr.. .10 for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nam gets .25 up to ewr.. .10 for nyc Better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nam gets .25 up to ewr.. .10 for nyc Its been the most southern outlier but has come north now the last 2 runs, cannot really put much stock in it though, the NAM may be the most east because it has the 2nd wave down south, almost no other model has that as potent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 Can we not be on the northern or southern fringe of one storm this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Imm starting to like my position and middlessex south for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 RGEM ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 RGEM ensembles PNMPR_panel_066.gif Seems to be about half n half for hits for the area... Not too bad... I think we are in for a decent event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'll take ensemble #6 please. Thanks for posting the ensembles panel BTW. It's very helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This storm is only 48 hours away...12z today will be very telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 RGEM ensembles PNMPR_panel_066.gif Looks fairly similar to the Euro ensembles. Close to half of the 51 members are decent hits, including some coastal huggers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z RGEM hits DC good as well as SNJ. Lighter snow here maybe a few inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Can we not be on the northern or southern fringe of one storm this year... I cannot remember a winter where NYC has been on the edge of heavy snow or on the rain/snow line as many times as this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Solid warning snowfall for the coastal areas of NYC and LI. Looking better and better. SnowGoose, u should start up-playing this. I think this trends to an 6-10 inch snowfall for Bronx, Queens, Manhattan and Staten Island and an 8-12 inch snowfall for Brooklyn, Nassau and Suffolk Counties on the 00Z runs tonight. Will see very positive trends on the 12 Z suite I think.....As is right now, this may be an advisory event for some areas. It is very fast moving and we will need a fairly significant, quick trend north amongst the models to warrant a winter storm watch/warning. I'd go with a 2-4" event right now for much of our area (NNJ/NYC/LI). Parts of southern NJ will probably get watches and warnings if this holds, as they will most likely be in the heavier snow band again. For the DC area this could be a very big event.....5-10 inches of snow potentially.....they deserve it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The NAM has been the flattest solution and had a nice shift north at 12z. Hopefully we start to see more of a north trend on the upcoming globals now that the initial shortwave should have better sampling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 One thing good for the winter lovers.....whatever does fall will stay around. Some seasons we do get bigger snows yet they are followed by quick warmups and melting. The snow that we get, whatever it may be, will be followed by bitterly cold air once again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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